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Start preparing for post-quantum cryptography now—but not because quantum computers are known to be breaking ordinary encryption today. A future cryptographically relevant quantum computer could threaten widely used public-key algorithms, while the date it might arrive is unknown. For organizations, the practical challenge is finding where vulnerable cryptography is used and migrating it safely before sensitive data or critical systems are exposed.
This is a planned security transition, not a reason to replace every encryption system blindly. NIST’s current project guidance says quantum-vulnerable algorithms are expected to be deprecated and ultimately removed from its standards by 2035, with high-risk systems moving earlier. That is a standards-transition horizon, not a prediction that quantum computers will arrive in 2035. NIST’s post-quantum cryptography project page
What the quantum threat does—and does not—mean
The concern is concentrated in public-key cryptography. CISA, NSA, and NIST identify RSA, ECDH, and ECDSA as examples of algorithms that may need to be updated, replaced, or otherwise altered when organizations transition to post-quantum cryptography. That does not mean all encryption is already broken, or that a quantum computer can currently decrypt routine internet traffic. The joint CISA, NSA, and NIST readiness fact sheet
Why plan before a quantum computer exists?
NIST says no one knows when a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will appear; estimates range from a few years to a few decades. NIST also describes 10 to 20 years as the historical time from standardization to full integration of a new algorithm across information systems. That historical estimate is not a forecast for any particular organization, but it illustrates why discovery, procurement, testing, and rollout cannot be left until the last moment. NIST’s post-quantum cryptography explainer
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What “harvest now, decrypt later” means
An attacker could collect encrypted data now in the hope of decrypting it in the future. This makes information with a long confidentiality life—such as data that must remain secret for years—a planning priority even when its current encryption has not been defeated. The relevant question is not only what data is sensitive, but how long it must remain confidential and which systems protect or transmit it.
1. Set up a cross-functional migration team
Give the transition an owner and a defined scope. Cryptography is spread across infrastructure, applications, products, and operational technology, so a security-only effort can miss systems or dependencies that affect business operations.
Include the people who own the dependencies
- Security and enterprise architecture
- IT and application owners
- OT and industrial control system (ICS) operators
- Privacy, risk, and compliance teams
- Procurement, legal, and vendor management
Assign responsibility for the inventory, risk ranking, vendor engagement, testing, funding, and decision-making. The team should maintain a roadmap that connects those workstreams rather than treating post-quantum readiness as a one-time algorithm update.
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2. Inventory where cryptography lives
Build a cryptographic inventory before selecting replacements. Record where public-key algorithms and their dependencies appear, which system or business service uses them, who owns it, and how it can be updated. Reconcile the findings with existing asset, identity, and endpoint inventories so the work is grounded in systems the organization already tracks.
Look beyond obvious network connections
- Network protocols, servers, endpoints, and certificates
- Applications, cryptographic libraries, and third-party components
- Firmware, software signing, and update mechanisms
- Build systems, CI/CD pipelines, and code-signing dependencies
- Cloud services, commercial off-the-shelf products, legacy platforms, and IT/OT systems
Automated discovery can help, but it may not reveal cryptography embedded inside a vendor product. Ask suppliers for an inventory of embedded cryptography and details about how and when it can be upgraded. The joint agency fact sheet recommends identifying cryptography and dependencies across systems and involving vendors in readiness planning. Joint readiness fact sheet
3. Map protected data and its confidentiality lifetime
Connect the cryptographic inventory to the information it protects. For each important dataset, document its sensitivity, how long it must remain secret, where it is stored, how it moves, and which applications, protocols, or providers protect it.
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Make long-lived exposure visible
A dataset with a short useful life may present a different urgency from one that must remain confidential for many years. Record the required secrecy period alongside the systems that handle the data. That lets the team identify where “harvest now, decrypt later” could matter and prevents prioritization based only on which systems are easiest to find.
4. Prioritize by business and operational risk
Rank systems using both the sensitivity and confidentiality lifetime of their data and the effort or lead time required to migrate them. A technically simple change can still be high priority if it protects long-lived secrets; a hard-to-upgrade operational system may need an early plan even if the transition itself must be phased.
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Give early attention to
- Information that must remain confidential for a long time
- High-impact systems and critical processes
- Critical infrastructure and industrial control systems
- Exposed datasets and services that transmit sensitive information
- Systems with complex dependencies, long vendor upgrade schedules, or limited maintenance windows
For each priority, track data sensitivity, required secrecy lifetime, system dependencies, vendor upgrade schedule, test approach, and expected migration cost. This makes the ranking explainable and gives leadership a basis for funding and sequencing work.
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5. Confirm the standards and product path
Use NIST’s finalized post-quantum standards as the standards foundation, then verify how each relevant product or service supports them. NIST approved the three Federal Information Processing Standards on August 13, 2024. NIST’s FIPS approval announcement
| Standard | Algorithm | Function |
|---|---|---|
| FIPS 203 | ML-KEM | Key establishment |
| FIPS 204 | ML-DSA | Digital signatures |
| FIPS 205 | SLH-DSA | Digital signatures |
NIST says organizations should begin migration using these standards. NIST’s post-quantum cryptography project page
Ask vendors specific implementation questions
- Which of the relevant standards does the product support, and in what release?
- What testing and integration work is complete, and what remains?
- What configuration changes, dependencies, or interoperability limits should you expect?
- How will upgrades work for cloud services, embedded products, legacy systems, and OT?
- What are the planned milestones, support commitments, and contract implications?
Compare options by the cryptographic function being replaced, standards support, interoperability and performance in your environment, dependencies, vendor upgrade schedule, migration cost, operational risk, and ability to adapt if implementation guidance evolves. Do not assume that a product is ready merely because its vendor mentions post-quantum cryptography. Post-quantum cryptography and quantum key distribution are different approaches, not interchangeable labels.
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6. Pilot and test before broad rollout
Test candidate implementations in controlled environments that reflect real dependencies and operational constraints. A successful laboratory configuration alone does not establish that certificates, applications, vendor integrations, or update processes will work across the organization.
Include these checks in the pilot
- Interoperability between systems and with external partners
- Performance and operational effects in the intended environment
- Certificates, signatures, and software or firmware update workflows
- Application, library, and infrastructure dependencies
- Rollback procedures and recovery responsibilities
- Maintenance windows, availability requirements, and OT impacts
Set acceptance criteria and document failures, workarounds, and required vendor changes. Expand in phases only after the affected owners have reviewed the results and a recovery path is clear.
7. Fund, contract, and track the transition
Turn the roadmap into funded work with named owners, delivery milestones, expected costs, and review points. Include cryptographic discovery and upgrade information in procurement and vendor-management processes so new systems do not add unknown dependencies to the inventory.
Keep the plan current
Revisit priorities as assets, data uses, vendor plans, and standards evolve. NIST’s project page sets 2035 as the horizon for deprecating and ultimately removing quantum-vulnerable algorithms from NIST standards, with high-risk systems moving earlier. It is not a universal legal deadline for every organization. NIST’s post-quantum cryptography project page
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NIST mathematician Dustin Moody, who heads its post-quantum cryptography standardization project, has urged organizations to begin transitioning to the standards to help keep data secure in the quantum era. The useful next move is concrete: assign ownership, identify cryptography and long-lived sensitive data, then schedule the highest-risk migrations.
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