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Matching a simulator’s yield and map location is not enough to make its results comparable. Burst type and height, effect thresholds, fallout assumptions, population data, and casualty rules can all differ. Treat the maps as educational estimates, compare each effect separately, and check the assumptions behind it—not as precise predictions of damage.
What “the same inputs” needs to include
A yield and a map pin describe only part of a detonation scenario. Before comparing two tools, record the settings that can change the result:
- Yield and units: Confirm both tools use the same TNT-equivalent yield.
- Burst type and height: Airburst and surface burst produce different patterns, especially for local fallout. A simulator may also choose or optimize a burst height for a particular blast effect.
- Enabled effects and thresholds: Check which blast, thermal, prompt-radiation, and fallout zones are displayed, and the threshold attached to each ring.
- Fallout settings: If a plume is shown, compare fission fraction, wind speed and direction, and any weather assumptions the tool exposes.
- Tool version and date: Public interfaces and models can change, so record when you made the comparison.
For example, NUKEMAP exposes yield and height-of-burst options. Its FAQ describes an airburst-height option that optimizes blast radii; an optimized height for a particular effect is not a universal height that maximizes every effect. NUKEMAP FAQ · NUKEMAP
NukeSimulator also lets users select airburst or surface burst and displays blast, thermal, radiation, and fallout zones. Those shared labels do not establish that it uses the same scenario or equations as another calculator. NukeSimulator overview
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Why individual effects do not match
Each colored zone represents a model and a chosen threshold, not a single universal boundary. Compare the labels and assumptions for each effect rather than judging only by the apparent size of the shapes.
Blast
Blast rings correspond to selected overpressure levels. A different threshold, scaling equation, or assumed burst altitude can produce a different radius. NukeSimulator says its model uses cube-root yield scaling: in its illustrative example, an eightfold increase in yield doubles a pressure-ring distance. That relationship describes its model; it does not mean another simulator uses identical thresholds or assumptions. Its default benchmarks are 20 psi, 5 psi, and 1 psi, associated respectively with severe reinforced-concrete destruction, collapse of most residential buildings, and broken window glass or injuries. These are model benchmarks, not guaranteed outcomes for every building. NukeSimulator methodology
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Thermal effects
Thermal zones depend on heat-energy calculations and the criteria chosen for burns or ignition. Visibility through the atmosphere matters: NukeSimulator says its thermal model assumes reasonably clear visibility. Shadows, terrain, and buildings may also affect real exposure, but its displayed thermal model does not amount to a detailed prediction of those local conditions. NukeSimulator methodology
Prompt radiation
Prompt-radiation zones are tied to dose thresholds and may be represented as a distance zone. A different threshold can change the boundary even if the underlying dose calculation were otherwise comparable. NukeSimulator describes 500–600 rem as a dose range that is usually fatal without intensive medical care; this is the site’s interpretive threshold, not an individual prognosis. NukeSimulator methodology
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Fallout
Fallout is directional and particularly sensitive to assumptions. Unlike many blast and thermal displays, a fallout plume depends on radioactive material being lofted, winds at different altitudes, and weather. NukeSimulator describes its surface-burst output as a simplified SIMFIC-style approach using yield, fission fraction, wind speed, and direction, with dose-rate contours referenced to one hour after detonation (H+1). It cautions that real patterns also depend on winds at every altitude, rain, and terrain. NukeSimulator methodology
NUKEMAP’s FAQ describes a scaling approach that does not attempt to model specific, realistic wind conditions; weather-aware dispersion is more complex and computationally intensive. Different plume shapes can therefore reflect different methods, not necessarily a mistake in the visible inputs. NUKEMAP FAQ
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Why casualty estimates can diverge even when zones look similar
Casualty totals combine physical-effect zones with population data and rules about who is killed or injured in each zone. They are not direct counts derived from the blast radius alone.
NukeSimulator says it uses the European Commission Joint Research Centre’s GHS-POP 2025 population grid at 30 arc-seconds (about 1 km) and applies casualty rates attributed to the U.S. Office of Technology Assessment’s The Effects of Nuclear War (1979):
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| Overpressure range | Rates NukeSimulator says it applies |
|---|---|
| Above 12 psi | About 98% killed |
| 5–12 psi | 50% killed; 40% injured |
| 2–5 psi | 5% killed; 45% injured |
| 1–2 psi | About 25% injured |
These are the rates that this simulator says it applies, not a universal forecast for a city or a prediction of an actual event. Another tool can yield a different count by using another population grid or year, different zone boundaries, or different injury and fatality rules. NukeSimulator methodology
Time of day, building type, shelter, evacuation, emergency response, and population movement can all affect real outcomes. Public calculators simplify or omit many such factors, along with cascading effects such as firestorms and medical-system collapse. The NukeSim FAQ characterizes its casualty estimates as “rough illustrative estimates, not predictions.” NukeSim FAQ
What the maps leave out
NukeSimulator says it calculates nominal rings over flat, open ground. Real terrain can shadow a thermal flash, weaken blast behind ridges, or channel effects through valleys and streets; circular rings do not simulate full shock-wave propagation over that terrain. Its methodology also identifies weather, construction, shelter, time-of-day population changes, and other cascading impacts as material factors not captured by its estimates. NukeSimulator methodology
More broadly, educational maps cannot fully represent local weather and terrain, urban density, construction standards, sheltering, exact weapon design, evacuation, emergency response, or infrastructure resilience. NukeSim says its estimates should not be used for targeting, planning, emergency management, or operational decisions. NukeSim FAQ
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- Match the scenario: Set the same yield and units, location, burst type, and height. Match fission fraction and wind settings if available.
- Match what is being measured: Select the same effect zones and compare their threshold labels—not just the colors or outer edges.
- Read each tool’s method notes: Look for its blast equations, thermal visibility and burn assumptions, radiation thresholds, fallout model, and treatment of terrain and weather.
- Separate physical effects from casualty totals: Compare the population source and date, time-of-day assumptions, and injury or fatality rules used for any count.
- Check the model’s stated range and purpose: NukeSimulator says its effects models are calibrated for yields of roughly 1 kiloton to 20 megatons; results outside that range are extrapolated and less reliable, and the simulator has a 100-megaton hard cap. This qualification applies to NukeSimulator, not to all tools. NukeSimulator methodology
Can one simulator be called more accurate?
A disagreement alone cannot establish which result is more accurate. Matching visible inputs does not prove that the underlying equations, thresholds, data, or omitted factors match. The cited tool documentation explains individual methods and limitations, but does not establish a controlled, matched-input validation or an authoritative accuracy ranking between these calculators. Use each map to understand its stated scenario and assumptions, not as a street-level damage forecast.
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