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Food insecurity in East Africa has no single cause. Drought and erratic rain can reduce harvests, pasture, water and household income; conflict can disrupt farming, markets, movement and aid. High prices, displacement, disease and strained services can then make those shocks harder to withstand. The effects vary by country, season and livelihood: a pastoral household, a rain-fed farmer and a displaced family may face different routes into hunger.
How do drought and conflict lead to food insecurity?
Food insecurity can arise because households have less food to produce or obtain, or because food that is available has become unaffordable or inaccessible. Drought primarily damages production and the natural resources livelihoods depend on. Conflict primarily threatens safety, movement and access, while also interrupting production and trade. Both can cut income and deplete household reserves, and they can reinforce one another.
The mechanisms are distinct, but their consequences overlap. Drought may leave families with fewer crops, animals or earnings just as insecurity blocks access to a market or aid distribution. There is no comparable regional statistic in the cited reporting that assigns a single percentage of East African food insecurity to drought versus conflict.
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How does drought affect food security?
When rains fail or arrive erratically, crops may yield less and households can lose both food for consumption and income from sales. For pastoralists, reduced pasture and water can weaken or kill livestock, or reduce the income earned by selling animals. With less food produced and less money to buy it, families may use up stored food and other resources before the next harvest.
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These pressures can accumulate over successive poor rainy seasons. FAO’s Somalia country brief links high food insecurity partly to the cumulative impact of consecutive poor seasons on crop and livestock production. WFP reported that erratic rains in October–December 2024 were followed by low crop yields and rapid depletion of pasture and water sources in Somalia. WFP also reported that Somalia’s food production in 2024 was 45 per cent below its long-term average; that is a country-specific 2024 figure, not a current estimate for the whole region. FAO GIEWS country brief on Somalia; WFP’s March 2025 account of drought, conflict and high prices in Somalia.
Drought is not the only climate hazard. Floods can destroy crops, displace households and interrupt access; Somalia’s 2026 outlook also flags increased flood risk in riverine and low-lying areas. The May 2026 joint UN-agency release on Somalia discusses that outlook.
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How does conflict disrupt access to food?
Conflict and insecurity can prevent people from planting or harvesting, force them to leave farmland or livestock, and disrupt the movement of food to markets. Traders and consumers may be unable to travel safely, while displaced households can lose access to land, jobs, social networks and familiar markets. Insecurity can also obstruct health services and humanitarian deliveries, leaving people with fewer ways to meet basic needs.
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The scale of the disruption is not limited to a household’s own food supply. FAO and WFP’s June 2026 early-warning update described conflict and violence as the primary hunger driver in 14 of the 16 hotspots covered by its November 2025–May 2026 report. That is a finding across the report’s global hotspots, not an East Africa-specific share. In the same release, FAO Deputy Director-General Beth Bechdol said, “When farmers cannot plant, herders lose their animals and markets are disrupted, food insecurity deepens quickly.” FAO and WFP’s June 2026 hotspot update.
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Why do prices, displacement and health pressures matter?
A market can have food for sale and still be out of reach for households without enough purchasing power. Fuel-related transport costs can raise the price of food, while lost work or livestock income leaves families less able to pay. A joint UN-agency release in May 2026 reported food-price increases of up to 20 percent linked to fuel costs and maritime supply-chain disruption. That figure refers to the release’s Somalia context, not a uniform price change across East Africa. Joint FAO, OCHA, UNICEF and WFP release, 15 May 2026.
Displacement can sever access to livelihoods and support networks; disease and limited health services can heighten nutritional vulnerability. WHO’s 2026 Greater Horn situation report also identifies funding shortfalls, insecurity, restricted humanitarian access, overstretched health systems and supply-chain disruptions as constraints on the response. These pressures affect whether people can obtain food, health and nutrition support when their own resources are failing. WHO Greater Horn of Africa Food Insecurity and Health Crisis Situation Report No. 1.
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How do drought and conflict compare?
| Dimension | Drought and erratic rainfall | Conflict and insecurity |
|---|---|---|
| Main pathway | Less crop output, pasture and water; livestock losses or reduced earnings | Interrupted farming, trade and movement; displacement and barriers to services or aid |
| Livelihoods directly exposed | Rain-fed farmers and pastoralists, with effects spreading to households relying on food purchases | Farmers, pastoralists, traders and displaced households whose livelihoods or access are disrupted |
| Timing | Often tied to poor rainy seasons and can accumulate across successive seasons | Can persist while insecurity continues, disrupting both daily access and longer-term livelihoods |
| Common household effects | Lost food, income and coping resources | Lost livelihoods, safe movement and access to food, services or assistance |
The distinction helps explain why one intervention or one season’s rainfall cannot resolve every crisis. Where climate shocks and insecurity overlap, lost production and restricted access can compound; where they do not, households may still face price, health or displacement pressures.
What do recent food-insecurity figures show?
Regional totals are not interchangeable: “Eastern Africa” and the “Greater Horn of Africa” refer to different reporting scopes, and the figures below use different periods and estimates. They should not be added together or read as a like-for-like trend.
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- WFP reported that nearly 62 million people faced acute food insecurity at IPC Phase 3 or worse in Eastern Africa in 2024. It cited conflict, extreme weather, socio-economic shocks and disease outbreaks among the contributing factors. WFP also reported more than 20 million people displaced in the region by November 2024. WFP’s 2024 Eastern and Southern Africa response publication.
- WHO reported that more than 37.8 million people were experiencing or projected to experience acute food insecurity across its six-country Greater Horn emergency response in 2026. WHO noted that the burden could be higher because Ethiopia lacked a comparable national IPC Phase 3+ estimate in that report. This is a different scope and reporting period from WFP’s Eastern Africa 2024 figure. WHO’s April–June 2026 situation report, published 7 July 2026.
- For Somalia, FAO, OCHA, UNICEF and WFP projected 6 million people at IPC Phase 3 or worse between April and June 2026, including close to 1.9 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). These are projections for that country and period, not a regional count. Joint agency release, 15 May 2026.
- FAO and WFP reported that 19.5 million people in Sudan faced IPC Phase 3 or worse through May 2026, while 7.8 million people in South Sudan were projected at Phase 3 or worse between April and July 2026. The same June 2026 update described famine risk in 14 areas of Sudan through September 2026 and four counties in South Sudan through July. Famine risk is a projection, not the same as a confirmed famine classification. FAO and WFP’s June 2026 hotspot update.
IPC Phase 3+ totals, Phase 4 counts, famine risk and confirmed famine are different measures or statuses. Each number above belongs to its stated geography and time window; none should be treated as a current count beyond that period.
What should readers take away?
Food insecurity in East Africa is best understood as the interaction of shocks and household vulnerability, not as a contest between drought and conflict. Drought can erode production, water, pasture and income; conflict can interrupt livelihoods and block access to markets, services and assistance. Prices, displacement and disease can deepen both effects. The outcomes are not inevitable: whether people can reach assistance and whether food, health and nutrition services are funded and accessible shape how a shock translates into hunger.
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