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A benchmark’s losing streak tells you how that index performed over a particular period; by itself, it does not predict the next return or say what you should do. To interpret it, first identify the exact index, dates, and return measure, then check whether it is a suitable comparison for your fund and your investment goals.
What does a benchmark’s losing streak actually tell you?
A benchmark is a standard used to represent a market, asset class, or investment strategy. An index can show how that defined basket performed, but a losing stretch is a historical observation—not a forecast, and not a verdict on every fund or investor exposed to the market.
The title does not specify an index, country, period, or return measure, so it cannot establish that a particular benchmark is currently losing, how large its decline is, or when it might recover. Before drawing a conclusion, pin down the details:
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- Dates and duration: What are the start and end dates? A “streak” can describe consecutive losing days, months, or years; those are not interchangeable.
- Return definition: Is the figure a price return, or a total return that includes reinvested distributions?
- Magnitude and composition: How much did the index fall, and what holdings or rules shaped its result?
Vanguard notes that an index cannot be invested in directly. A fund that tracks one has expenses and may differ from the index because of tracking differences; an investor’s own result can also depend on when they bought, sold, or added money. Vanguard explains what an index is.
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How should you compare a fund with its benchmark?
Start by checking that the fund and benchmark represent comparable exposures. A benchmark that differs in geography, asset class, style, or mandate can make a performance comparison misleading.
- Identify the fund’s purpose. For an index fund, find the index it is designed to track. For an actively managed fund, check its stated benchmark and mandate.
- Confirm the comparison is like for like. Compare funds and benchmarks with similar exposures, over the same dates, using the same return basis.
- Account for the investable fund’s result. The index is theoretical; the fund’s realized performance reflects expenses and tracking differences. Your personal return may also differ because of cash flows and timing.
- Assess active performance over a relevant period. A sustained shortfall against a suitable benchmark may merit investigation. One interval—especially when the benchmark itself is falling—does not establish that a manager has failed.
Vanguard says persistent active-fund underperformance can be a reason to consider a similar, more successful fund, provided the comparison is appropriate. Its guidance is not a rule to switch based on one bad stretch. Read Vanguard’s explanation of benchmarks.
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What historical results can—and cannot—show
Past market declines and recoveries can give context for the range of outcomes investors have experienced. They cannot tell you how often a future decline will happen, how deep it will be, or when a recovery will begin. Vanguard states: “Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.”
For context, Vanguard reports 13 global equity bear markets since 1972. Its S&P 500 annualized-return chart covers 1973 through 2024 and is described as of December 31, 2024; those are historical observations, not a prediction of future returns. See Vanguard’s discussion of long-term market results.
Other historical summaries illustrate how results depend on the period and mix of assets. J.P. Morgan Asset Management reports a one-year stock-return range of +47% to -39% since 1950. It also says that, on the data basis described on its page, a stock-and-bond blend had no negative return in any five-year rolling period in the past 70 years. These observations do not guarantee that a particular portfolio—or any future five-year period—will avoid a loss. Review J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Guide to the Markets.
Does benchmark weakness mean you should change investments?
Not on its own. Short-term results need to be considered against your goals, time horizon, liquidity needs, and ability to bear losses. A downturn may be a reason to review whether an investment still serves its intended role, but the benchmark’s direction alone does not settle that question.
Ask whether your circumstances or plan have changed, and whether the fund still matches its purpose. Avoid treating a market headline as a personal investment instruction: the right response depends on your situation and the product’s actual risks. Vanguard’s guidance emphasizes keeping performance in context and not letting short-term results alone sway long-term goals.
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Figures about funds lagging benchmarks answer a different question from whether benchmark shares have been falling. Vanguard attributes the following results to the S&P Dow Jones Indices SPIVA U.S. Scorecard: percentages of funds that underperformed their assigned benchmarks over the five years ended June 30, 2025.
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| Fund category | Underperformed assigned benchmark |
|---|---|
| U.S. stock funds | 88% |
| International stock funds | 79% |
| Emerging-market stock funds | 78% |
| Global stock funds | 90% |
| General investment-grade bond funds | 51% |
These percentages describe fund performance relative to assigned benchmarks for that five-year period; they do not describe benchmark losses, predict the next period, or show that every active fund underperformed. Vanguard’s active-versus-passive discussion attributes the figures to the SPIVA U.S. Scorecard.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.A quick checklist before acting on a losing-streak headline
- Can you name the exact index and the dates covered?
- Is the reported return a price return or a total return with distributions reinvested?
- Does the index fit the fund’s geography, asset class, style, and mandate?
- If the fund lags, how much may reflect expenses or tracking differences rather than a different exposure or management outcome?
- Have your investment goal, time horizon, liquidity needs, or ability to bear a loss changed?
Without the benchmark and period, the phrase “long losing streak” is not enough to judge a fund or choose an action. Establish what the measure covers, compare like with like, and assess any decision against your own plan rather than treating past returns as a forecast.
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