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Short answer: The United States is rebuilding a meaningful leading-edge manufacturing base, while China is expanding much faster in foundational (mature-node) chips. The available evidence does not show China leading the overall foundry market: Counterpoint Research gave TSMC 73% of pure-play foundry revenue in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 5% for China’s SMIC. Those are revenue shares, not a complete measure of wafer capacity, unit output or future capability.
The two countries are strengthening different parts of the semiconductor supply chain. U.S.-backed projects target advanced logic and broader resilience; China’s strongest gains are in older process technologies that remain essential for automobiles, industrial equipment, power systems and consumer devices.
What “chip edge” and “foundry leadership” actually mean
Leading-edge versus foundational nodes
“Leading-edge” is a time-dependent industry term for the newest practical process generations. TSMC reported that its N2 process entered high-volume manufacturing in Taiwan in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a faster ramp expected during 2026. A node label such as “2 nanometers” is a process-family name, not a direct measurement of every transistor dimension.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFoundational, or mature-node, processes are older technologies that continue to be produced in very large volumes. They power many microcontrollers, sensors, display drivers, analog chips, connectivity parts and automotive components. Growth in this category should not be presented as proof of leadership in advanced logic.
Different metrics answer different questions
- Revenue share: how much foundry sales a company captures.
- Wafer-fabrication capacity: how many wafers factories could process.
- Unit output: how many finished chips are shipped.
- Process capability: which generations and specialty technologies a factory can run.
- Production status: whether a facility is operating, under construction, announced or merely forecast.
A country’s factory location also differs from a company’s nationality. TSMC is headquartered in Taiwan but operates manufacturing sites in several countries.
How far the U.S. buildout has progressed
TSMC Arizona: operating capacity and future phases
TSMC’s 2025 annual report said its first Arizona fab entered high-volume production in the fourth quarter of 2024. The fab was producing the company’s N4 process, according to a July 16, 2026 announcement from the Arizona Commerce Authority.
TSMC said construction of its second Arizona fab was being accelerated, with high-volume manufacturing expected in the second half of 2027. The Arizona Commerce Authority separately described construction as complete and said 3-nanometer volume production was expected in 2027. Both statements describe expected future production, not a claim that the second fab was already shipping at volume.
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TSMC also reported that construction of a third Arizona fab began in 2025. On July 16, 2026, the Arizona Commerce Authority said TSMC had announced another planned $100 billion investment, bringing the company’s announced Arizona total to $265 billion. The authority associated the plan with ten fabs, two advanced-packaging facilities and an R&D center.
Rank #2
The same announcement projected that about 30% of TSMC’s 2-nanometer-and-more-advanced capacity would be located in Arizona after the announced fabs are completed. That is a future share of TSMC’s own capacity. It is not Arizona’s current share of global chip production or 30% of TSMC’s worldwide output today.
What the CHIPS program has funded
The CHIPS and Science Act, signed in August 2022, created federal incentives for semiconductor factories, research and regional technology development. The Commerce Department’s inspector general describes $39 billion for semiconductor facility and related assistance, $11 billion for regional technology hubs, and $10 billion for National Institute of Standards and Technology research and support for smaller manufacturers.
A U.S. Government Accountability Office review using a July 2025 status snapshot found that Commerce had awarded 19 companies funding for 40 facility projects. The awards totaled $30.9 billion in direct funding and $5.5 billion in loans. Nearly 40% of the projects were intended to produce leading-edge logic chips, although the portfolio also covered other supply-chain stages.
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Those awards are not equivalent to completed production. GAO said project milestones ran from November 2024 through October 2033 and that Commerce had verified only some milestones by July 2025. One Phoenix leading-edge facility had been completed and certified in June 2025.
Commerce estimated that the supported projects could raise the U.S. share of global leading-edge logic manufacturing from 0% in 2022 to 20% by 2030. GAO reported this as a government projection tied to the funded project portfolio, not as a current measurement and not as a forecast that the United States will lead all semiconductor manufacturing.
China’s strongest gains are in mature-node manufacturing
Rapid foundational-chip expansion
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s 2025 assessment says China’s foundational-chip production capacity grew more than four times faster than global demand between 2015 and 2023. It reports that China’s foundational-chip market share rose from 19% in 2015 to 33% in 2023.
The Commission, citing TrendForce, also reported that China held 34% of global wafer-fabrication capacity for foundational chips in 2024. This is a mature-node capacity estimate and should not be used as China’s share of advanced-logic manufacturing.
More capacity is projected
The Commission said China-based chipmakers could account for nearly half of new mature-node capacity added over the following three to five years. That is a projection, not a completed buildout. It also noted that China remains behind in localizing advanced chipmaking equipment, a constraint on the country’s ability to reproduce the most sophisticated manufacturing ecosystem domestically.
Rank #4
Why customers are considering Chinese foundries
TrendForce reported on June 30, 2026, that the mature-node market was tight and that customers were increasingly considering Chinese foundries as alternative manufacturing partners. Its analysis put average utilization for the top ten foundries’ 8-inch fabs at 88% in 2026 and expected 90% utilization in the second half of the year. These are analyst measurements and forecasts, not government production statistics.
Who leads the foundry market today?
Revenue leadership remains concentrated
Counterpoint Research’s second-quarter 2026 pure-play foundry report showed TSMC with 73% revenue share for the second consecutive quarter and SMIC with 5%. On this broad commercial metric, TSMC remains far ahead of China’s largest listed foundry.
| Comparison | United States and Taiwan-linked capacity | China-linked capacity |
|---|---|---|
| Broad pure-play foundry revenue, Q2 2026 | TSMC: 73% (Counterpoint Research) | SMIC: 5% (Counterpoint Research) |
| Strongest documented growth area | Leading-edge logic projects, including Arizona | Foundational and mature-node capacity |
| China share of foundational-chip wafer capacity, 2024 | Not stated in cited sources | 34% (TrendForce estimate cited by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission) |
| Future capacity claim | U.S. leading-edge share projected at 20% of global output by 2030 (Commerce estimate reported by GAO) | Nearly half of new mature-node capacity projected over three to five years (Commission assessment) |
The table compares unlike measures deliberately. TSMC’s figure is revenue share, while China’s figures concern foundational capacity and additions. Neither establishes total worldwide wafer output or future leadership across every process type.
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Revenue, capacity and technology are not interchangeable
A factory can add many mature-node wafers without matching the revenue generated by a supplier of advanced processors. Conversely, a high-revenue company may not have the largest number of installed wafers in every process category. The answer changes depending on whether the question concerns sales, physical capacity, chip units, yields or access to a particular node.
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Equipment and export controls remain constraints
The U.S.-China Commission says China is still behind in localizing advanced chipmaking equipment and that export controls on semiconductor technology likely delayed development of an advanced chipmaking industry. China’s rapid mature-node expansion therefore coexists with a documented weakness in the tools and processes needed for the leading edge.
Announced facilities still have to become productive fabs
Construction schedules, equipment installation, workforce availability, yields, customer qualification and demand determine whether announced capacity becomes usable output. The Arizona projects and Chinese mature-node additions should be counted as operating capacity only when the relevant source confirms volume production.
What this means for supply-chain resilience
Fabrication is only one stage of chip production. Assembly, testing and advanced packaging, materials, manufacturing equipment, engineering talent and logistics create separate dependencies. GAO noted that about three-quarters of chips were manufactured and packaged in Asia in 2022, according to the source cited in its report.
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How to read future headlines about the U.S. and China
- Identify the process category: leading-edge logic, mature-node, specialty, memory or another segment.
- Check the metric: revenue share, wafer capacity, unit output or projected additions.
- Check the status: high-volume production, construction complete, under construction, announced or forecast.
- Separate factory location from company ownership and headquarters.
- Attach every percentage to its date, geography and source before comparing it with another percentage.
Using those tests, the current picture is two-track rather than a single race. The United States is adding credible leading-edge capacity through TSMC Arizona and CHIPS-supported projects. China is gaining rapidly in foundational manufacturing and may capture more mature-node orders. The cited data do not support saying that China is about to overtake TSMC or lead the overall foundry market.
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