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In Scioto Analysis’s October 2026 study, a ban on new data-center construction in Ohio produces greater modeled net benefits than continuing current policy—but it is not the top-ranked option. A requirement for new centers to meet their full electricity load with behind-the-meter power that is 90% renewable has the highest modeled net present value and benefit-cost ratio. The results are projections for Ohio, not a guarantee of what any policy would achieve.
What the study says about a construction ban
Scioto Analysis estimates that a ban on new data-center construction would have a net present value of $35 billion and a benefit-cost ratio of 2.7 for 2027–2034. Its status-quo scenario comes in at $2.4 billion and 1.04. In the study’s central estimates, therefore, the ban performs better than continuing current policy.
The study’s best-performing option is different: requiring new centers to supply their full load through behind-the-meter generation using 10% natural gas and 90% renewables. Scioto Analysis estimates that scenario at $43 billion in net present value and a 2.9 benefit-cost ratio. All figures below are the report’s estimates for 2027–2034.
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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11| Modeled alternative | Net present value | Benefit-cost ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Current policy (status quo) | $2.4 billion | 1.04 |
| Ban on new construction | $35 billion | 2.7 |
| Behind-the-meter: 90% gas / 10% renewables | $35 billion | 2.2 |
| Behind-the-meter: 50% gas / 50% renewables | $39 billion | 2.5 |
| Behind-the-meter: 10% gas / 90% renewables | $43 billion | 2.9 |
Net present value compares modeled benefits with modeled costs over time, expressed as a present value; the benefit-cost ratio compares the two totals. A ratio above 1 means estimated benefits exceed estimated costs in that scenario’s central case. These are not promises of actual savings or evidence that a ban has been adopted.
What the ban scenario covers—and what it does not
The report models a proposal to prohibit construction of facilities used for digital data processing whose aggregate monthly or peak load exceeds 25 megawatts, applying to projects planned for 2027 and later. It is not a modeled ban on every data center, nor on digital services themselves.
Scioto Analysis describes petitioners as aiming to put the proposed amendment before Ohio voters in November 2027. The study does not establish whether the measure subsequently qualified for a ballot or became law. Its policy comparison should be read as a modeled scenario, not a description of Ohio’s current legal position.
For the alternative energy requirements, “behind-the-meter” means onsite or co-located generation that supplies the facility rather than direct reliance on the statewide grid. The modeled mixes vary the shares of natural gas and renewables, with each requirement covering the center’s full load.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteWhy the report favors less new construction over current policy
Scioto Analysis attributes the ban’s modeled advantage to preserving most employment benefits from centers already operating while avoiding some additional electricity-price and emissions costs from new development. The report says counties tend to receive much of their job growth from their first data centers, so later facilities may add relatively little employment benefit compared with their costs.
Rank #3
Electricity costs and local pollution
For 2027–2034, the report estimates that current policy would impose $16 billion in higher electricity-price costs on Ohio ratepayers. It also estimates about $41 billion in costs from local air pollutants under the status quo, compared with $220 million from carbon. The carbon figure counts only Ohio’s share of global carbon costs, so it is not a full accounting of climate damages worldwide.
The report’s broader point is that electricity demand and pollution costs can fall on people beyond the companies building and operating the facilities. Rob Moore, principal of Scioto Analysis, told the Ohio Capital Journal that unpriced emissions can contribute to local air-quality problems and health harms as well as carbon emissions.
How large the projected expansion could be
Scioto Analysis estimates Ohio data centers used enough electricity in 2026 to power 5.7 million homes, compared with 5.4 million homes in the state, and projects capacity equivalent to nearly 21 million homes by 2034. These are comparisons based on electricity use and household assumptions—not counts of homes actually supplied by data centers.
The report also projects that if all planned projects arrive by 2028, the facility count would rise by 50%, while electricity use and annual carbon emissions would more than triple. Those figures describe the report’s projection, not a confirmed construction outcome.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How much confidence should readers place in the estimates?
The results depend heavily on estimates of data centers’ effect on employment and earnings. Scioto Analysis says that if it overstates those gains, even the construction-ban and 90%-renewables scenarios could have negative net present value; if it understates them, every alternative looks better. The report also finds that the status quo’s net present value turns negative if centers operate closer to full capacity than assumed or if new water facilities cost more to build.
To test uncertainty, the report ran 10,000 combinations of key assumptions. In those simulations, the median status-quo net present value for 2027–2034 was negative $6.7 billion. Separately, it reports that the 90%-renewables option was the only alternative with positive net present value in at least 95% of trials across the full 2013–2034 period. That 95% result uses a different time span from the 2027–2034 central estimates in the table.
The study also estimates that Ohio data centers created $62 billion in net social benefit from 2013 through 2026: about $77 billion in benefits, largely employment-related, including roughly 96,000 jobs and $75 billion in wages, against $15 billion in costs. These are Scioto Analysis’s historical estimates and future projections; they have not been independently validated here.
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What the comparison can—and cannot—answer
The analysis centers on Ohio residents, ratepayers, Ohio-based businesses, and Ohio shareholders, and its main results count impacts experienced within Ohio. Data-center owners and users of their services may be elsewhere, and the report treats broader national and global effects as a separate question. Its rankings are therefore not a complete national welfare calculation.
For Ohio readers, the study’s central conclusion is specific: the modeled construction ban beats the status quo, while the full-load requirement with 90% renewables ranks first on both reported measures. Whether those modeled rankings hold in practice depends particularly on employment and wage assumptions, facility utilization, and infrastructure costs.
Quick Recap
Sources
- Scioto Analysis, “Data Center Policy in Ohio: A Cost-Benefit Analysis” (October 2026), the primary source for scenario definitions, estimates, and simulations.
- Scioto Analysis report release, summarizing the findings.
- Ohio Capital Journal coverage by Marty Schladen (October 8, 2026), the source for the quotation attributed to Rob Moore.
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