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New Zealand’s scheduled fuel supplies were secure through the end of 2026, Z Energy chief executive Lindis Jones said, but he warned that strained global inventories and a stressed supply chain leave less room for disruption. That means a new shock could affect supply and prices even though the country was not, in his assessment, already short of fuel.
What Z Energy said about New Zealand’s fuel supply
Jones said shipments were arriving as scheduled and that supplies through year-end were secure. He also said New Zealand and the wider Asia-Pacific region had more stock than in March, while warning that global inventories were lower and the supply chain was under pressure.
As Jones put it, “there’s far less room for error with global inventories down and a pretty stressed global supply chain.” He added that the next piece of news could have a disproportionate impact, whatever it was. This is Z Energy’s assessment of the supply outlook, not an official government forecast of a current shortage.
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How much fuel was reported in stock at the end of September?
RNZ/1News reported that Jones’s briefing put fuel in stock or in transit at nearly 54 days of petrol, 48 days of diesel and 46 days of aviation fuel at the end of September 2026. These are figures attributed to Z Energy’s briefing, rather than the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment’s separate official snapshot.
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Why MBIE’s fuel-cover figures are different
MBIE’s snapshot, taken at 11:59pm on 20 September 2026, counted combined domestic stocks and fuel on water at 60.6 days of petrol, 50.7 days of diesel and 53.3 days of jet fuel. MBIE calculates days of cover using demand levels from before the conflict, and the totals exclude the Government’s diesel reserve. MBIE’s fuel-stock data therefore should not be treated as a like-for-like update of the end-September figures reported from Z Energy’s briefing: the dates and stated calculation basis differ.
Days of cover are estimates that express a quantity of fuel as the number of days it would meet a given demand level; they are not a promise that fuel will be available to every customer for exactly that long. For a meaningful comparison, the date, fuels counted, treatment of fuel on water, demand baseline and inclusion or exclusion of reserves all matter.
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Stockholding rules are not the same as total national stocks
New Zealand’s minimum stockholding obligation is a legal floor for importers covered by the rules, not a measure of all fuel available nationally. MBIE lists current minimum cover requirements of 28 days for petrol, 21 days for diesel and 24 days for jet fuel. These requirements cover specified fuel held within New Zealand’s exclusive economic zone; they should not be confused with the higher inventory estimates in either September snapshot. MBIE’s minimum stockholding obligation rules also provide that, from 1 July 2028, importers with more than 10% market share must hold 28 days of diesel cover.
Why fuel prices could still face upward pressure
Jones said higher prices had reduced demand over the three months to September 2026 by about 6% for petrol and around 3–4% for diesel. He expected more recent demand to be softer, but assessed that price pressure was more likely upward than downward. One factor he cited was the possibility that product could be drawn toward Europe if stocks there continued to decline, affecting price differentials between Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
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The combination is not contradictory: scheduled New Zealand shipments and current stocks can support a secure near-term outlook while tight global inventories make the system more vulnerable to a new disruption and leave prices exposed to international competition for fuel.
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