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Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the latest CNT/MDA poll, but the gap is narrower than in the previous survey. Reuters reported Lula at 43.1% and Bolsonaro at 38% in the first-round scenario. The poll also reported separate estimates for projected valid votes and a simulated runoff; those measures use different scenarios or denominators and should not be conflated.
What the CNT/MDA poll found
The Reuters report published October 3, 2026, gives three distinct comparisons between Lula and Bolsonaro. The first is a first-round scenario, the second counts projected valid votes, and the third simulates a runoff:
| Measure | Lula | Flávio Bolsonaro |
|---|---|---|
| First-round scenario | 43.1% | 38% |
| Projected valid votes, excluding blank or void ballots | 47.8% | 42.1% |
| Simulated runoff | 47.3% | 43.1% |
These are poll estimates, not election results. In the first-round scenario, the report also lists Augusto Cury at 3.2%, Ronaldo Caiado at 3%, and Renan Santos at 1.5%. Reuters report syndicated by MarketScreener
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The report cites September 15 figures of 40.5% for Lula and 30.4% for Bolsonaro in the first-round scenario. Its previous simulated-runoff estimate was 47.3% to 40%. Compared with those figures, the latest poll shows Bolsonaro gaining relative to Lula in both scenarios; the first-round figures are not the same measure as the projected-valid-vote or runoff figures.
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| Scenario | September 15 survey | Latest survey |
|---|---|---|
| First-round scenario | Lula 40.5%; Bolsonaro 30.4% | Lula 43.1%; Bolsonaro 38% |
| Simulated runoff | Lula 47.3%; Bolsonaro 40% | Lula 47.3%; Bolsonaro 43.1% |
The report does not provide an earlier projected-valid-vote comparison in the cited figures, so that measure cannot be compared here on the same basis.
Who was surveyed and when
MDA surveyed 2,007 people from September 30 through October 2, 2026. The reported margin of error is 2.2 percentage points. That margin is relevant when interpreting differences between estimates; it is not a prediction of the eventual result. The Reuters report does not state sampling mode, weighting, response rate, or subgroup estimates, so those details cannot be inferred from the reported figures.
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What the runoff figures mean
The 47.3% to 43.1% result is a simulated runoff poll, not a forecast of an actual second-round outcome. Reuters says that if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the Sunday first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25. This is a conditional election rule, separate from the poll’s scenarios. Reuters report syndicated by MarketScreener
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