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Satellite imagery can help verify where a reported strike may have occurred and what changed at a site between image capture dates. It cannot, by itself, prove that a strike happened, identify a drone or other weapon, or establish who was responsible. A sound assessment combines geolocation, image dates, independent reporting, and an explicit account of uncertainty.
What satellite imagery can—and cannot—establish
An image records the condition of a place when it was captured. Comparing imagery from before and after a reported incident may show changes such as structural damage, a crater, scorch marks, debris, or a collapsed roof. Those observations can support an investigation, but they do not show the moment of attack or explain what caused the change.
Damage could predate the reported incident or have another cause. Even a well-located, clearly dated image does not independently identify the weapon, attacker, or circumstances. Treat those as separate questions that require corroborating evidence. The Bellingcat/Global Legal Action Network methodologies for Yemen and Ukraine frame incident analysis around geolocation, chronology, corroboration, and neutral description—not image-only attribution.
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A workflow for checking a reported strike
1. Define the claim and log its sources
Write down exactly what is being claimed, who made the claim, when it appeared, the alleged location and time, and what evidence accompanies it. Keep the claim distinct from facts you have independently verified.
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Trace material to its earliest available post, file, or report. A repost is not an independent witness simply because it appears on another account or website. Note whether a source is primary or secondary, and assess its history, affiliations, and reliability. The Yemen Methodology & Collection Protocol describes gathering and cross-checking user-generated content, media reporting, local and international NGO material, satellite imagery, and other open-source information.
2. Preserve the material and your working notes
Record the source URL, when you collected it, and any relevant context. Retain original files where lawful and safe; keep them separate from edited copies or screenshots. Note what you changed when preparing a copy for analysis, and preserve links between evidence items and the claims they support.
Bellingcat’s open-source investigation workflow separates identification, collection and preservation, verification, analysis, review and confirmation, and presentation. The Ukraine methodology recommends keeping research notes that let another person follow how evidence was assessed. This record also helps prevent a later repost or a change to a webpage from obscuring what you originally examined.
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Start with landmarks visible in the original photo or video: road layouts, building shapes, terrain, water features, or distinctive infrastructure. Compare those features with mapping and satellite sources, and record which matches support the location. Do not treat a caption, an account’s location, or file metadata as proof on its own.
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State how specific the match is. A match to a neighborhood is not automatically a match to a particular building or impact point. Then check whether local reporting and other independent material are consistent with the proposed location. The Yemen methodology treats geolocation and cross-referencing as parts of incident analysis.
4. Establish when the satellite image was captured
Find the closest usable images from before and after the alleged incident. For each image, record the provider and capture date, and the capture time if available. Preserve the image or a record of the view used so a reviewer can see what you compared.
Do not confuse the date an image was captured with the date it became available or the date you viewed it. The Ukraine methodology says to credit the imagery source and state its capture date; it also cautions that services such as Google Earth Pro may display a date based on the viewer’s location. Check the date carefully, especially when timing is central to the claim.
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Image availability varies by place and time. Before relying on a view, assess the factors that determine whether it can answer your particular question:
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| Factor | What to check | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Capture date and time | Provider, capture date, and time when available | An image may predate the incident or fall too far after it to establish when a change occurred. |
| Resolution and accuracy | The provider’s stated image detail and accuracy | The view may show broad damage but not support identification of a smaller feature or exact impact point. |
| Revisit frequency and latency | How often the area is imaged and how long data may take to appear | A recent-looking view may not be a recent capture, and a suitable post-incident image may not yet be available. |
| Cloud conditions | Whether clouds or other conditions obscure the site | Obscured areas can hide damage or make a comparison unreliable. |
| Coverage and access | Geographic gaps, restrictions, licensing, or other access conditions | Sensitive areas may be excluded or shown at reduced resolution, and some imagery may not be accessible for the investigation. |
| Provider transparency | Whether the source and capture details can be identified | Without traceable provenance, it is harder for others to assess the image or reproduce the comparison. |
Bellingcat’s Online Investigation Toolkit, “About Maps and Satellites,” warns that satellite data may not always be up to date and that latency, currency, and coverage vary. A paid image may improve access or timeliness for a specific question, but buying imagery does not make an interpretation true.
6. Compare visible changes, not assumptions
Compare the same area at a similar scale where possible. Describe observable changes precisely: for example, “the roof is intact in the earlier image and appears collapsed in the later image.” Keep that description separate from an interpretation such as “the building was struck.” Explain what features you compared and identify the capture dates for both views.
Connect a change to the reported incident only if the timing and independent evidence support that reading. The images may bracket a change without showing when it happened, and they cannot alone establish its cause. If the comparison is unclear or the images are not sufficiently detailed, say so rather than treating an ambiguous feature as confirmation.
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7. Corroborate the account and test alternatives
Compare the imagery with independently sourced eyewitness material, local and international reporting, NGO material, official statements, and other open-source evidence. Check whether reports agree on the timeline and location, and consider what the site was used for, what was nearby, and whether earlier incidents could explain the visible condition.
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Ask whether multiple accounts actually come from separate sources or repeat a single original claim. Consider whether damage could have another cause, predate the alleged strike, or be at a nearby site rather than the exact location reported. Preserve conflicting accounts in your notes instead of silently selecting the most convenient version.
The Yemen protocol uses at least three cross-referenced sources for its “confirmed” incident grade. That is a standard used by that project, not a universal threshold for every investigation. If the available evidence does not support a finding, describe the incident as unsubstantiated or the cause as unknown rather than upgrading an allegation into a fact.
8. Review and present a neutral assessment
Have another reviewer check the location match, image dates, source independence, comparison, and treatment of contradictory evidence. Then lead the published assessment with what you found and how confident you are. Link each image and report, explain how location and timing were established, and distinguish direct observations from interpretations.
Be especially careful with casualties and responsibility. The Yemen methodology notes that casualty reports can conflict and cautions against counting deaths without direct examinable evidence; the Ukraine methodology likewise warns against unsupported casualty totals. Attribute casualty or responsibility claims to their sources unless they have been independently established. Where accounts differ, describe the disagreement or give a supported range rather than implying false precision.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to phrase the conclusion
A transparent conclusion answers three different questions separately: what the material visibly shows, whether it supports the reported incident and location, and what remains unknown about timing, cause, weapon, casualties, or responsibility. Give the imagery provider and capture date, state any important coverage or image-quality limitation, and identify conflicting evidence. Avoid wording that turns “consistent with” into “proves.”
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