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You can build a Rust service that watches Polymarket activity through real-time streams, Polygon settlement logs, and Data API history—but those are three different evidence sources, not one universal feed. The Rust SDK documents authenticated trade events for your own account; the reviewed material does not establish a public WebSocket that immediately reports every trade by any wallet you choose to watch. A reliable detector therefore needs to identify what each source can observe, preserve its identifiers, and reconcile duplicates and gaps without promising perfect or instant delivery.
What “hearing every trade” can—and cannot—mean
For a copy-trading bot, “every trade” is an engineering objective: observe as much relevant activity as possible, then detect missed or overlapping records. It is not a documented delivery guarantee. Polymarket’s matching, settlement, account streams, and historical API expose different stages or views of activity, and their records should not be assumed to arrive together or contain identical fields.
First decide whose activity matters. If the bot is monitoring its own authenticated account, the Rust SDK documents a user stream with trade executions. If it is monitoring other wallets, that personal account stream is not evidence of a public, arbitrary-wallet trade feed. Polygon settlement logs and Data API history are separate ways to observe or recover activity, each with its own attribution and timing limits.
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| Path | What it can show | Wallet attribution | Role in a detector | Operational work |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Authenticated WebSocket user stream | Trade executions and order events for the authenticated account; separate market streams provide order-book, price, or midpoint updates. | Account-specific. The documented user stream does not establish arbitrary-wallet coverage. | Live-oriented observation of the bot’s own account events. | Authentication, connection management, resubscription, and durable event handling. |
| Polygon settlement logs | On-chain exchange settlement events, such as the CTF Exchange OrderFilled events used to build the Polymarket-v1 archive. |
Decode and validate event fields to determine which addresses and orders the event identifies; do not assume every field maps directly to a watched wallet. | Independent settlement-layer observation and a basis for chain backfill. | RPC access, verified contract and event definitions, block checkpoints, log decoding, and reorganization handling. |
| Data API trade history | Historical trade records queryable by user, market, or time, according to Polymarket Institute’s Data API documentation. | The example includes proxyWallet, which can be used as the address when examining a user’s history. |
Recovery after downtime, reconciliation, and historical lookup. | Pagination or cursors where applicable, query-window management, and deduplication. |
No exact latency, update cadence, completeness SLA, or parity guarantee among these paths is established in the cited documentation and studies. Treat a stream as stream-oriented, a log as a settlement observation, and an API query as history—not as interchangeable sources with a shared delivery clock.
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1. Use real-time streams only for the event scope they document
Own-account executions
The maintained polymarket-client-sdk documentation describes an async Rust client with WebSocket streams for market data and authenticated user events. It documents subscribe_trades() and subscribe_orders() for the authenticated user stream. That makes the user stream relevant when detecting your own account’s executions and orders; it does not prove that subscribing to a stream yields all trades attributed to arbitrary wallets.
The SDK documentation also lists RTDS as a separate feature. A feature listing alone does not establish that RTDS provides a universal wallet-attributed trade stream. Before building around any subscription, confirm the event type, its attribution fields, and its scope in the current SDK documentation.
Do not mistake market updates for fills
Order-book, price, and midpoint updates describe market data, not necessarily an executed trade. Keep those events in separate internal categories. A price change may help explain market conditions, but it is not proof that a particular wallet filled an order.
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Handle disconnects as expected operating conditions
Record when the connection starts and stops, preserve source timestamps and any source event identifier or cursor that is actually provided, and make reconnect and resubscription explicit. A reconnect can restore observation going forward; it does not, by itself, prove that events emitted during a disconnection have been recovered. Use history or chain backfill to investigate that gap.
The SDK setup examples currently show version 0.3. Crate versions change, so check the current release and its documentation before copying a dependency version or API call. The older Polymarket rs-clob-client repository is archived and says it is no longer functional; it directs users to the V2 client, so it is not a sound basis for a current implementation.
2. Observe Polygon settlement separately
What the chain layer represents
The Polymarket-v1 paper describes a hybrid architecture: matching occurs off-chain in the CLOB, while settlement uses the CTF Exchange on Polygon. Its trade archive was built from Polygon CTF Exchange OrderFilled events. This establishes on-chain settlement as a distinct observation path, not as a claim that a chain log is identical to an off-chain matching event or appears at the same time.
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Build a recoverable log consumer
A chain listener should be designed around durable progress rather than an assumption of uninterrupted delivery. At a high level:
- Verify the current target. Obtain the relevant contract addresses and event definitions from current official technical materials. The archive paper describes its historical method; it does not verify current deployed addresses, ABIs, or every exchange version.
- Subscribe and decode narrowly. Use a Polygon RPC endpoint to receive relevant logs, then decode them only against the verified contract and event definition. Reject or quarantine records that do not match the expected contract and event.
- Persist chain identity. Store the block number and hash, transaction hash, and log index with the decoded observation. These fields support traceability and a stable chain-event deduplication key.
- Checkpoint and backfill. Persist the last processed block and use a range query after a disconnect to look for missed logs. Make replay safe: a backfilled log may already have arrived through the live subscription.
- Choose a reorganization policy. Track block ancestry or otherwise detect when previously observed blocks are replaced. Mark affected observations for re-evaluation instead of treating an early log as permanently final.
Those are implementation recommendations, not a production listener specification established by the paper. The evidence cited here does not prescribe a finality threshold, RPC configuration, or guaranteed detection delay.
3. Use Data API history for backfill and reconciliation
Polymarket Institute’s Data API documentation describes trade-history queries filterable by user, market, or time. Its example response includes proxyWallet as an address useful for studying a user’s activity. This makes the API a practical recovery and comparison surface when a stream disconnects or a detector needs to inspect a time window.
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Do not assume a historical query is a live-feed substitute. The cited documentation does not promise an update interval, real-time delivery, a completeness SLA, or exact equivalence with WebSocket or settlement records. Persist query parameters and the time range covered so you can tell which interval was actually checked.
Polymarket’s API surfaces also use different identifiers for different jobs. Gamma provides market and event information; CLOB routes use the relevant outcome’s token_id; market metadata, condition IDs, token IDs, and user trade history are not interchangeable. Join them deliberately and retain the original values rather than replacing them with one guessed “market ID.”
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Normalize observations without erasing their provenance
Convert source-specific payloads into a common internal envelope so the rest of the bot can process observations consistently. The exact available fields differ by source; a normalized structure should preserve missingness and provenance rather than inventing a shared identifier or filling absent numbers with zero.
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| Field | Why retain it |
|---|---|
| Source and observation time | Distinguishes where and when your system saw a record from any timestamp supplied by the source. |
| Wallet or proxy wallet, when supplied | Supports attribution while preserving which address field the source actually provided. |
| Condition or market ID and token or asset ID, separately | Allows explicit joins between market context and the outcome token without conflating identifier types. |
| Side, price, share size, and available USD-denominated value | Preserves trade attributes when present. Do not derive a value from fields whose meaning or units are unclear. |
| Transaction hash and log index for chain observations | Identifies a particular log within a transaction and supports replay-safe chain deduplication. |
| Source event ID or cursor for stream or API observations, when supplied | Retains the source’s own event identity or pagination position without pretending it is a universal key. |
| Raw payload or durable reference | Lets you audit decoding and revisit source-specific fields as your normalization changes. |
A Rust type can express that the three sources do not always supply the same data:
struct Observation<T> {
source: Source,
observed_at: Timestamp,
source_event_id: Option<String>,
wallet: Option<Address>,
condition_id: Option<String>,
market_id: Option<String>,
token_id: Option<String>,
side: Option<Side>,
price: Option<Decimal>,
shares: Option<Decimal>,
usd_value: Option<Decimal>,
chain_ref: Option<ChainRef>,
raw: T,
}This is an implementation sketch, not a Polymarket response schema or a drop-in SDK type. Use source-specific decoders and preserve the original payload or a durable reference to it. Represent absent or unknown values as absent; zero is a meaningful numeric value, not a safe substitute for missing data.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Deduplicate observations without claiming feed parity
The same underlying activity may be observed through more than one path, but those records may carry different identifiers, timestamps, or levels of detail. Deduplication should therefore be source-aware and auditable.
- For chain logs, use the transaction hash and log index, together with the chain context, as the event identity; account for reorganizations before treating it as settled for your application.
- For stream or API records, use a source-provided event ID or cursor if one exists. Do not manufacture a universal trade ID when the source does not provide one.
- For cross-source matching, compare only fields with established meanings and units, such as wallet attribution, token, side, price, size, and a transaction reference when available. Keep ambiguous matches as separate observations for review rather than silently merging them.
- Keep an observation ledger. Record which sources saw a candidate event and when. This lets downstream logic distinguish one event observed twice from two unrelated records that happen to share some fields.
Data API documentation describes identifier distinctions and missing-field conventions. Follow those semantics when parsing responses, and keep source records available for audit rather than flattening away evidence that could explain a mismatch.
Put the pieces together as a detection pipeline
- Define the target. Specify whether you are tracking your own authenticated account, a wallet’s historical activity, or on-chain settlement involving relevant addresses. That decision determines which observations can answer the question.
- Ingest independently. Run stream, chain-log, and API-history consumers as separate source adapters. Each adapter should validate its own payload and emit a source-tagged observation.
- Persist before acting. Store the raw event or a durable reference, normalized fields, and source checkpoint before passing a candidate to copy-trading logic. This makes retries and later reconciliation possible.
- Reconcile bounded gaps. After a stream or RPC interruption, query the relevant history window and chain range where appropriate. Record the bounds and results of each recovery attempt; neither source is documented here as a guarantee of complete parity.
- Join market context explicitly. Resolve market/event metadata and outcome tokens through the appropriate API surfaces, preserving condition, market, and token identifiers as separate fields.
- Gate any action on confidence and policy. Treat an observation as evidence of activity, not as an instruction to trade. Require whatever attribution, validation, and risk checks the bot’s design needs before sending an order.
Why reliable detection does not imply a profitable copy strategy
Infrastructure can improve visibility without making inferred intent or future returns reliable. In the 2026 Polymarket-v1 archive paper, authors Boka Qin and Rui Yang report 1.2016 billion trade records across 1,295,860 markets, covering November 21, 2022 through April 28, 2026. The paper reports 100% ground-truth direction coverage in its archive, yet its benchmark reports 49.83% accuracy for tick-rule classification and 50.51% for bulk-volume classification. Those are results for the paper’s archive and benchmark, not universal accuracy estimates for every detector or wallet.
A separate 2026 study by Gregory Young, OpenMarket, reports 727,098,247 deduplicated rows across 202 archival snapshots sampled over 54 Polymarket days from February 12 through May 15, 2026. Its tested out-of-sample model slightly underperformed the probability implied by Polymarket’s own order book; under the study’s stated assumptions, simulated trading returned -0.116 normalized payoff units per attempted trade. That result is specific to that study and configuration, not a verdict on every strategy. It is a reason to separate the engineering question—did the detector observe and reconcile an event?—from the trading question—does acting on it have an edge?
Quick Recap
Implementation checklist
- Choose the target event scope before choosing a feed.
- Do not present an authenticated account stream as an arbitrary-wallet public stream.
- Keep market-data updates distinct from executions.
- Verify current contract addresses, ABI, and exchange version before decoding logs.
- Checkpoint streams and chain processing, and make replay safe.
- Use Data API history as a recovery and reconciliation tool without claiming a fixed update cadence or completeness guarantee.
- Preserve source identifiers, timestamps, and raw payload references; keep market, condition, and token IDs separate.
- Keep detection evidence separate from copy-trading decisions and profitability claims.
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