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There is no reliable universal ranking of data centers against factories, farms, mines, or other large electricity users. A fair local comparison looks at each facility’s peak and annual electricity demand, operating schedule, flexibility, direct and electricity-related water use, grid needs, land, emissions, and who pays for infrastructure. National data-center forecasts show why utilities are planning for growth; they do not establish what any one facility means for a particular community.
What counts as a large electricity user?
“Large electricity user” is not a single type of facility. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s customer-sector overview groups manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and construction in the industrial sector, but those activities have very different equipment and operating needs. Manufacturing electricity use can include motors, heating, cooling, and electrochemical processes. At many manufacturing facilities, electricity use tends to be relatively steady through the day and year.
A data center is also not a single standardized load. Its demand depends on the facility, computing workload, cooling system, and local operating arrangements. For a useful comparison, identify the actual facilities or clearly defined facility types, use the same geographic and electrical boundary, and compare the same time period. Annual energy use and peak power answer different questions: annual megawatt-hours (MWh) describe energy consumed over time, while peak megawatts (MW) help reveal the maximum demand the local system may need to serve.
What national data-center forecasts do—and do not—show
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) estimates that data centers could use 11.8% of U.S. electricity by 2030 in its 2026 update, with modeled scenarios ranging from 9.5% to 15.3%. An earlier LBNL report estimated data centers used about 4.4% of U.S. electricity in 2023 and projected 6.7% to 12% by 2028. These estimates refer to different report vintages and forecast horizons, so they should not be blended into one projection.
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| LBNL estimate | Year or horizon | Share of U.S. electricity | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 update | 2030 projection | 11.8%; modeled range 9.5%–15.3% | Forecast, not a measurement of a particular community or facility. |
| 2024 report | 2023 estimate | About 4.4% | Estimate of national electricity use in that year. |
| 2024 report | 2028 projection | 6.7%–12% | Earlier forecast horizon; do not combine with the 2030 scenario range. |
These national figures help explain why data centers are part of load-growth planning. They cannot tell a resident whether a proposed data center will draw more power than a nearby factory, mine, or agricultural operation, or what upgrades that particular site requires.
How local electricity and grid impacts compare
Demand scale and timing
Compare both annual MWh and peak MW for each facility, using equivalent boundaries and periods. A facility with substantial annual consumption may have a different local effect from one whose peak demand coincides with the area’s highest system demand. Hourly and seasonal demand profiles show whether loads are steady, variable, or concentrated at particular times.
Flexibility and curtailment
Do not assume an entire sector can—or cannot—reduce demand when the grid is strained. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that some large-load customers in Texas’s ERCOT system have voluntary agreements to curtail use during high demand or low generator availability. Those customers are primarily cryptocurrency miners but also include data centers and some industrial factories. The agreements apply to particular customers and conditions; they do not show that every data center or factory can provide the same flexibility. For a specific comparison, check whether a facility has an enforceable or voluntary curtailment arrangement and what it requires.
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Interconnection, transmission, and local capacity
A facility’s electricity use is only part of its grid impact. A utility must also consider available capacity, the timing and size of interconnection upgrades, transmission needs, and the resources required to serve demand reliably. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) identifies data-center expansion, domestic manufacturing growth, and electrification among the drivers of rising demand and transmission needs. It also notes that data-center demand is growing rapidly, varies regionally, and can affect regional grids.
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Virginia illustrates why local context matters. EIA reports that commercial electricity sales there rose by nearly 30 million MWh from 2019 to 2025, with data-center concentration a major driver alongside electric-vehicle adoption and building electrification. That regional trend does not isolate data centers as the cause of all the increase, nor does it establish the effect of a project elsewhere.
How to compare water use fairly
Data-center water impacts have two distinct parts. Direct water use is water used at the site, including for some cooling systems. Indirect water use is associated with generating the electricity the facility consumes. The balance depends on the cooling design, location, and electricity supply. A facility’s direct water demand and its electricity-related water footprint should not be combined without explaining what each measure includes.
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For context—not as a data-center total—EIA reported that the U.S. electric power sector withdrew 47.7 trillion gallons of cooling water in 2021, with withdrawal intensity of 11,595 gallons per MWh. Withdrawal means water taken from a source; it is not the same as water consumed, which is not returned to the source. A power-sector withdrawal statistic therefore cannot be presented as a data-center water-consumption figure or as the amount a particular community loses.
An LBNL spatial study published in 2021 estimated that one-fifth of data-center servers’ direct water footprint was in moderately to highly water-stressed watersheds, while nearly half were fully or partly powered by plants in water-stressed regions. Those are modeled findings tied to the study’s data and year, not universal current proportions. LBNL’s 2024 report also models location-specific water use under different cooling systems and electricity-supply scenarios, reflecting why a single national water figure cannot settle a site-level question.
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Land, emissions, and backup power are site-specific
The evidence available here does not establish a comparable land-use ranking for data centers, manufacturing, agriculture, mining, or other large users. A local assessment should distinguish the facility parcel from associated generation and transmission infrastructure, and account for zoning and competing land uses.
Nor is there a harmonized local emissions comparison across these facility types. Emissions depend in part on the electricity supply and the hours when demand occurs, as well as any on-site generation, its operating hours, fuel, and pollution controls. Average grid emissions alone may not answer what additional demand means at a particular time and place. Do not attach a quantified emissions ranking without local project and utility evidence.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Who pays for grid upgrades, and who bears the risk?
The answer depends on utility rules, tariffs, service agreements, and the project’s arrangements—not simply on how much electricity a facility uses. DOE’s large-load rate-design brief identifies several questions for utilities and regulators:
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- Cost allocation: How are the costs of grid upgrades and reserve capacity assigned between the large customer and other ratepayers?
- Underused investments: Who bears the risk if a utility builds infrastructure for expected demand that later does not materialize or falls short?
- Reliability: What resources are available if large-load demand exceeds the supply planned to serve it?
- Clean supply: How might a large load be matched with clean generation, or provide capacity through on-site generation?
These are policy and contract questions, not evidence that a particular project will raise other customers’ bills or produce a net local benefit. Electricity demand by itself does not settle how costs or benefits are distributed.
A checklist for comparing facilities in your community
Ask the utility, relevant regulators, water provider, or project record for comparable, site-specific information. Useful items include:
- Annual electricity use and peak MW, with the period, facility boundary, and whether values are measured or forecast.
- Hourly and seasonal demand profiles, plus the terms and conditions of any curtailment commitment.
- Interconnection and transmission upgrades, their expected timing, and the parties responsible for their costs.
- Direct water withdrawals and consumption, water source, seasonal demand, and any indirect water assumptions tied to electricity supply.
- Site plans and the footprint of associated generation or transmission infrastructure.
- Backup-generation permits, expected operating hours, fuel, and pollution controls.
- Tariffs, service agreements, cost-allocation rules, and provisions addressing demand shortfalls or underused utility investments.
- Equivalent measures for the nearby factories, farms, mines, or other facilities being used as comparisons.
Without those matched data, the most defensible conclusion is about the comparison method, not a universal winner: local impacts depend on the facility, the site, its electricity and water systems, and the rules governing service and infrastructure.
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