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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →When ice that was grounded on Antarctica flows into the ocean, it raises global mean sea level. NASA estimates Antarctica lost about 135 gigatons of ice per year from 2002 to 2025, adding about 0.4 millimeters per year to global mean sea level. The effect is not evenly shared by every coast: regional sea level also depends on ocean processes and local land movement.
Why Antarctic ice loss raises sea level
The distinction between grounded ice and floating ice explains how Antarctica affects the ocean. Grounded ice rests on bedrock; when it flows into the ocean and melts, it adds water that was previously held on land. Floating ice shelves are already displacing seawater, so their melting has little direct effect on sea level—much like a floating ice cube melting in a glass.
Ice shelves still matter because they restrain glaciers flowing from the continent. Warm ocean water can melt shelves from below, thinning them and weakening that restraint. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory scientist Helene Seroussi explains: “The water melts the ice shelves from below which can cause them to thin and break off.” If the shelves provide less resistance, grounded glaciers can discharge more quickly into the ocean.
NASA describes West Antarctica’s bedrock as largely below sea level. In places, the bed slopes downward inland, so retreating grounding zones can expose thicker ice to ocean water. That geometry makes some areas vulnerable to continued retreat. NASA’s explanation of glacial ice loss describes the roles of shelves, grounded ice, and ocean water.
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Where Antarctic ice loss is happening
West Antarctica
West Antarctica has been the dominant source of observed Antarctic ice-sheet mass loss in recent decades. The IPCC says losses from West Antarctic outlet glaciers outpaced increased snow accumulation and dominated the ice sheet’s losses since 1992; those losses were mainly induced by melting beneath ice shelves. Its marine-based glaciers are especially exposed where ocean water reaches the ice.
East Antarctica
East Antarctica is generally higher, and most of its bedrock is above sea level. That does not mean the region is wholly stable: some sectors have lost mass. The IPCC assessment identifies substantial uncertainty in how the Antarctic ice sheet will change, so it is more accurate to treat East Antarctica as an important uncertainty than to assume it will either remain unchanged or undergo uniform loss. NASA discusses the differing settings in Warming Seas and Melting Ice Sheets.
How much could Antarctica add by 2100?
The IPCC’s 2021 Sixth Assessment Report gives likely ranges for Antarctica’s contribution to global mean sea-level rise by 2100 under three emissions pathways. These are Antarctic components only—not projections of total sea-level rise, which also includes thermal expansion, mountain glaciers, Greenland ice loss, and changes in land-water storage.
| Emissions pathway | Antarctic contribution by 2100 |
|---|---|
| SSP1-2.6 | 0.03–0.27 m |
| SSP2-4.5 | 0.03–0.29 m |
| SSP5-8.5 | 0.03–0.34 m |
The ranges overlap substantially, but the upper end rises across the pathways, reaching 0.34 m under SSP5-8.5. The width of each range reflects uncertainty in the Antarctic contribution; it is not a precise forecast for any particular coast. See the IPCC AR6 Chapter 9 assessment for the broader discussion of ocean, cryosphere, and sea-level change.
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Why sea-level effects differ from coast to coast
Global mean sea level is an average, not a prediction that the ocean will rise by the same amount everywhere. Regional outcomes vary with ocean circulation and temperature, the distribution of land-ice loss, and vertical land movement. The IPCC’s 2019 Ocean and Cryosphere report describes regional departures of about ±30% around global mean sea-level rise due to the combined effects of thermal expansion, ocean dynamics, and land-ice loss. That figure describes the overall regional pattern, not an Antarctic-only effect or a value for a named location.
To assess risk for a particular shoreline, readers need regional projections and local information such as whether the land is rising or subsiding. NASA’s Sea Level Change Portal links to tools for exploring location-based projections; the Antarctic ranges above should not be used as a local forecast.
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How to interpret the numbers
- Observed rate: NASA’s estimate of about 135 gigatons lost per year covers 2002–2025 and is based on GRACE and GRACE Follow-On satellite observations. The estimated contribution is about 0.4 millimeters per year to global mean sea-level rise. See NASA’s Ice Sheets Earth Indicator, updated September 15, 2026.
- Future ranges: The IPCC values are projected Antarctic contributions by 2100 under specified SSP pathways, not annual rates and not total global sea-level projections.
- Local impacts: A global mean or Antarctic-only estimate cannot establish how much sea level will change at a specific location.
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