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U.S. export controls have sharply restricted Russia’s access to semiconductors, but they have not stopped chips from reaching the country. U.S. officials reported large declines in semiconductor imports in 2022; later investigations documented U.S.-made chips in Russian weapons and evidence of possible diversion through third countries. Those findings describe different periods and different measures, so neither early decline should be treated as a current estimate of Russia’s chip supply.

What the U.S. controls restrict

Integrated circuits (ICs), often called chips or microchips, are a priority within a broader U.S. export-control system. The restrictions do not amount to a ban on every chip made anywhere in the world. They govern specified exports, reexports, transfers, end users, and end uses, including some foreign-produced items connected to U.S. technology.

On February 24, 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced controls on U.S.-origin goods and certain foreign-produced items made using U.S. equipment, software, or blueprints as part of the response to Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine. On April 8, 2022, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) expanded Russia and Belarus licensing requirements to all categories of items on the Commerce Control List (CCL), extended Foreign Direct Product rules to those items, and said applications would generally be reviewed under a policy of denial, with limited exceptions. These measures define what is controlled; their existence does not show that every foreign supplier complies or that diversion has stopped.

Which chips are a priority

BIS’s Common High Priority Items List (CHPL), dated February 23, 2024, groups 50 items under six-digit Harmonized System (HS) codes. Its Tier 1 includes four integrated-circuit groupings: processors and controllers (8542.31), memory (8542.32), amplifiers (8542.33), and other ICs (8542.39). These are customs classifications, not a list of particular chip brands or models, and they do not represent every semiconductor or the same technical function.

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BIS describes Tier 1 as its highest-concern category because the items play a critical role in advanced Russian precision-guided weapons, Russia lacks domestic production, and the number of global manufacturers is limited. The agency also says Tier 1 and Tier 2 items have extensive commercial applications and have been found in Russian missiles and drones in Ukraine. As BIS put it, the prioritized HS codes cover items “that have extensive commercial applications but have also been found in Russian missiles and drones on the battlefield in Ukraine.”

What the reported import declines show

Two U.S. government statements from 2022 reported substantial declines in semiconductor flows to Russia from all global sources. They differ in the figure and wording, and neither is a measurement of Russia’s current chip access.

Report Measure and period What it establishes
Commerce Secretary Gina M. Raimondo, June 29, 2022 She said global exports of semiconductors to Russia from all sources had fallen “by almost 90 percent” since controls were put in place. A statement by the Commerce secretary about an early decline; it is not an independently calculated figure here or a 2026 estimate.
Joint alert from the U.S. Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and State, October 14, 2022 Reported semiconductor imports from all global sources down approximately 70 percent on a sustained basis since U.S. and allied restrictions. A separate government estimate with its own wording and timing; it should not be merged with Raimondo’s figure.

The figures support the conclusion that restrictions coincided with a major contraction in reported semiconductor imports in 2022. They do not establish a complete cutoff, quantify the share of controlled chips that still reached Russia, or give a comparable current total.

Why the decline did not mean a complete cutoff

In a 2024 investigation, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations examined the prevalence of American-manufactured microchips in Russian weapons and reported that U.S.-made chips continued to appear in those weapons. It also reported increased exports by four chipmakers to countries regarded as possible routes for evading controls.

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Those findings point to continued access and a risk of diversion, not proof that every flagged shipment reached Russia. Higher exports to a third country can justify scrutiny, but by themselves do not establish illegal diversion or that a company knew the goods’ final destination was Russia.

BIS warns that Russia uses intermediaries and transshipment points to conceal the involvement of listed parties and Russian end users. Its guidance urges exporters and reexporters—including manufacturers, distributors, and resellers—as well as financial and logistics service providers to take steps to address diversion risk. This enforcement challenge helps explain how chips can remain available despite restrictions on direct supply.

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How to read the later import figure

A Government Accountability Office report published in 2025 cited a State Department analysis finding that average monthly Russian imports of CHPL products from China rose 87 percent in dollar value in the final six months of 2023 compared with the first six months of the war. This is not an estimate of all Russian IC imports: it covers a defined group of priority items, imports from China, a specific comparison period, and dollar value.

The increase is therefore not directly comparable to the 2022 estimates of all-source semiconductor import declines. It does, however, illustrate why a single headline percentage cannot fully describe how restrictions are working: supply routes and the mix of products can change, while imports in one category or from one country may move differently from overall semiconductor flows.

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What is known—and what remains uncertain

The available evidence shows that U.S. controls restricted direct and lawful access, that U.S. officials reported steep import declines in 2022, and that chips continued to appear in Russian weapons amid evidence of potential evasion. It does not provide a comparable 2025–2026 measure of Russia’s total access to integrated circuits or the volume of chips diverted through third countries.

GAO reported that agencies should establish measurable targets to better assess the effectiveness of the controls. Without a current, comparable measure that distinguishes product categories, origins, routes, and end destinations, the evidence supports neither a claim of total success nor a claim that the 2022 declines describe Russia’s present supply.

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