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Oil prices fell on Friday, October 2, 2026, but the week ended differently for the two benchmarks: U.S. WTI crude lost 1.6%, while international Brent gained 0.11%. The G7 announced a coordinated release of 100 million barrels over four months, including an early diesel component, as oil supply recovered only partially and refined-product markets remained strained.
What happened to oil prices on October 2?
Both benchmark contracts slipped on Friday, but their weekly results diverged. At settlement, Brent was $102.25 per barrel, down 6 cents, or 0.06%, for the day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, settled at $91.11, down $1.76, or 1.90%. Across the week, Brent rose 0.11%, while WTI fell 1.6%, according to Reuters’ October 2, 2026 market report.
| Benchmark | Market reference | October 2 settlement | Daily change | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | International seaborne crude | $102.25 per barrel | Down $0.06 (0.06%) | Up 0.11% |
| WTI | U.S. crude | $91.11 per barrel | Down $1.76 (1.90%) | Down 1.6% |
The phrase “weekly loss” therefore describes WTI, not both benchmarks. The daily declines also should not be confused with the weekly return: Brent fell on Friday but still finished the week slightly higher.
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In a statement dated October 2, G7 leaders said members would implement a coordinated release through the International Energy Agency (IEA) of 100 million barrels over four months, beginning immediately. The plan includes a substantial diesel release frontloaded within its first 20 days by G7 members and partners. The G7 statement also commits members to refrain from imposing restrictions on energy and energy-product exports among themselves.
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The statement says the commitment takes account of commitments already fulfilled. It should not be read as proof that the full 100 million barrels are additional to the earlier emergency action. The Associated Press reported that the March IEA-member release was announced as 426 million barrels, but said the relationship between that action and the October amount was unclear (Associated Press, October 2, 2026).
How much had oil supply recovered?
Supply was recovering, but it had not returned to normal. The IEA’s September 11 Oil Market Report said global production fell by 1.6 million barrels per day month over month to 100.1 million barrels per day in August. More than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf output remained shut in. The agency projected that 2026 supply would average 100.7 million barrels per day, a 5.7-million-barrel-per-day decline from 2025, followed by an 8-million-barrel-per-day rebound in 2027. It deferred an expected full recovery in Middle East producer supply until 2027 (IEA, September 11, 2026).
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Several factors had eased pressure on prices since April: emergency stock releases, export routes that bypassed disrupted areas, higher output from producers outside the region, partial recovery in Persian Gulf flows and weaker demand. Even so, Hormuz flows averaged just 7.6 million barrels per day in August—13.1 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. The IEA estimated a third-quarter market deficit of 1.7 million barrels per day despite those offsets (IEA commentary by Toril Bosoni, September 18, 2026).
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Crude oil and refined products are connected, but they are not interchangeable measures of supply. Crude must be processed in refineries to become products such as diesel. If refinery capacity or output is constrained, more crude reaching the market does not necessarily mean more finished fuel is available.
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Reuters quoted Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, saying the main stress had shifted from crude availability toward refined-product supply, constrained by reduced refinery capacity and output across the Middle East and Russia. Reuters also reported that Chinese refiners suspended oil-product exports for October to preserve domestic stocks (Reuters, October 2, 2026). That helps explain why the G7 highlighted diesel in its stock-release plan even as crude flows partially recovered.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the announcement does—and does not—say about prices
The G7 decision landed amid falling Friday settlements and ongoing supply recovery, but the available figures do not establish that the announcement alone caused the price moves. Benchmark prices also reflected disrupted Gulf flows, alternative supply routes, production outside the region, softer demand and tight refined-product availability.
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The IEA’s September 18 commentary warned that if Gulf supplies stayed constrained and commercial inventories continued to deplete rapidly, higher prices and further demand reductions might be needed to close the supply-demand gap. The stock release adds an emergency buffer; it is distinct from ongoing production and does not itself demonstrate that supply has fully normalized.
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