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AI-related data-center growth can increase coal generation in some U.S. regions, but the evidence does not show that AI alone is keeping particular coal plants open. In a 2026 high-demand scenario, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that existing coal plants could supply more than half of the added generation in PJM, MISO and SERC. Separately, EIA documented delayed coal retirements after federal emergency orders. Those are related pressures on the grid, not proof that data-center demand caused each plant to stay online.

How can data-center growth lead to more coal generation?

Data centers add electricity demand to the grid. When demand grows faster than new generation and transmission can be built, grid operators may rely more on power plants that already exist and can supply electricity when needed. In some regions, that includes coal plants with unused capacity.

In its February 2026 scenario analysis, published March 12, EIA modeled faster-than-expected data-center power growth. In the high-demand scenario, coal supplies more than half of the additional generation in PJM, MISO and SERC. EIA attributes that outcome to spare capacity at existing coal plants. This is a modeled response to higher load, not a measurement of AI facilities’ actual electricity use or proof that a specific plant ran because of them.

The scenario used February 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook assumptions, which EIA said could differ slightly from its March outlook. It also assumed the same future generating capacity as the baseline forecast. Its result therefore illustrates how the existing fleet might respond under one set of assumptions; it is not a point forecast of what will happen.

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How much data-center electricity comes from coal?

The answer depends on location and on whether the figure describes a global or U.S. average. The International Energy Agency’s 2025 estimates describe electricity physically consumed by data centers, including the grid supply mix and on-site generation. They do not simply reflect operators’ contractual claims about buying renewable or other electricity.

Geography Estimated data-center electricity mix Source and qualification
Global Coal supplies about 30%. International Energy Agency, 2025 estimate of physical electricity consumption.
United States Natural gas supplies over 40%; renewables 24%; nuclear about 20%; coal about 15%. International Energy Agency, 2025 estimate of physical electricity consumption.

These are averages, not the supply mix for every facility. A data center usually draws from a regional electricity system rather than a dedicated coal plant, and regional generation differs. The U.S. figure also should not be substituted for the global one: the IEA estimates a higher coal share worldwide, with particularly high use in China.

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Are coal plants actually staying open because of data-center demand?

There is evidence of delayed retirements, but EIA identifies federal emergency orders—not data-center demand—as a stated factor in the delays it reported. Of 8.0 gigawatts (GW) of U.S. coal capacity anticipated to retire in 2025, 2.6 GW actually retired. EIA said DOE emergency orders temporarily postponed the retirement of some large plants.

Separately, EIA’s December 2025 inventory data listed 6.4 GW of coal capacity scheduled to retire in 2026. A scheduled retirement is not a guarantee that a plant will close on that date. These retirement figures describe changes in the expected operating life of plants; they are distinct from EIA’s scenario about how much existing coal capacity could generate if demand rises faster.

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What do data-center electricity forecasts say about future demand?

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s 2026 report, the United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update, estimates U.S. data-center electricity use of 649 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2030 in its reference case—11.8% of total U.S. electricity. Across its scenarios, data centers account for 9.5% to 15.3% of U.S. electricity in 2030.

These are estimates, not measured future consumption, and they cover data centers rather than AI alone. The range reflects uncertainty in inputs such as equipment shipments, how intensively AI chips are used and how much power equipment draws while idle. Higher data-center use could put more pressure on the grid, but the forecasts do not specify which fuels will serve that load; local generation, transmission and policy decisions affect the outcome.

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What grid changes could affect whether coal meets new demand?

How new large loads connect to the grid can shape both the power available to serve them and who pays for grid upgrades. In a 2026 action, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) gave regional grid operators 60 days to justify their current tariffs or propose changes addressing large-load connection studies, cost transparency, co-location, flexible service and generation serving nearby large loads.

  • Connection studies and timing: The process for assessing a large customer can affect when it can connect and what grid upgrades are needed.
  • Cost allocation: Tariffs and transparency determine how connection and system costs are assigned, including whether other customers bear costs associated with new loads.
  • Co-location and nearby generation: Rules for data centers located with or near generation can affect how that power is connected and accounted for.
  • Flexible service: A large customer able to reduce or shift demand may create different reliability needs from one requiring uninterrupted power.

FERC’s action recognizes that regional conditions differ; it does not establish a single national answer to which resources will supply data centers. The result will depend in part on each region’s generation, transmission constraints, operating needs and tariff choices.

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Why is the question also a legal and reliability issue?

Whether a plant can be required to remain open is not simply a question of whether electricity demand is rising. In September 2026, a federal court ruled that DOE exceeded its authority when it ordered Michigan’s J.H. Campbell coal plant to stay open, according to the Associated Press. The ruling is a counterpoint to emergency-order arguments that continued operation is necessary for reliability: legal authority and the evidence for reliability needs matter alongside forecasts of future demand.

As data-center load grows, the central uncertainty is not whether it adds demand, but how quickly that demand arrives, where it connects and what resources can serve it. Existing coal capacity may supply incremental power in regions with spare capacity, while delayed retirements can result from separate emergency and legal decisions. Neither fact establishes that AI demand is the sole cause of continued coal use.

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