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Start with available cash, not the project’s headline budget
Use the studio’s unrestricted operating cash as the starting balance. Keep it separate from money that is restricted to a purpose, committed to a future obligation, or held personally by a founder. Do not count a hoped-for grant, unsigned publisher deal, crowdfunding target, or projected game sales as cash on hand.
Distinguish project-development spending from studio overhead in your records, but include both in the forecast: they draw on the same pool of cash. Include founder compensation rather than assuming founders’ work is free, and add employer or payroll-related costs where the studio’s jurisdiction and hiring arrangement require them.
Build a cash forecast month by month
For each month, track the opening cash balance, receipts expected to arrive, payments due, and closing balance. Put a receipt in the month the cash is reasonably expected to reach the studio—not the month a deal is signed or a game is forecast to launch. Record both amount and timing: a manageable cost in total can still cause a shortfall if it falls due before financing arrives.
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- Choose a forecast period. Cover the project through the next meaningful financing or release milestone, and extend it far enough to show what happens if that milestone slips. Update the period as the plan changes.
- List each cash movement. Use separate line items for receipts and payments, with an expected amount, due or arrival month, and status such as scheduled, signed, or uncertain.
- Calculate the closing balance. For each month, add receipts to opening cash and subtract payments. Carry that closing balance into the next month as its opening balance.
- Compare plan with actuals. At each review, replace past estimates with actual cash movement and revise the remaining estimates to complete.
| Month | Opening cash | Receipts by expected arrival | Payments by due date | Closing cash | Key assumption or milestone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| One row per month | Prior month’s closing balance | Separate committed and uncertain receipts | Separate recurring and one-time costs | Opening cash + receipts − payments | Schedule, team, or funding assumption affecting the month |
Keep the underlying assumptions alongside the forecast. For example, note what must happen before a publisher milestone is paid, when a grant decision is expected, or what delivery obligation follows a crowdfunding campaign. This makes it possible to change one assumption and see which months are affected.
Include the costs that can change the cash picture
Estimate actual expected costs for your studio rather than applying a supposed industry-standard budget or percentage. The available evidence does not establish typical amounts for indie studio spending, contingency, or founder pay.
| Cost area | What to record |
|---|---|
| Team and owner compensation | Pay, planned hires, and founder compensation; include relevant payroll costs for your location and hiring arrangement. |
| Contractors and outsourcing | Agreed fees, remaining milestones, payment dates, and any work that may be added to finish the project. |
| Software, services, and hardware | Subscriptions and renewals, usage-based services, hardware purchases, and planned replacements. |
| Studio overhead | Rent or workspace, administration, insurance, and other recurring operating expenses. |
| Legal, accounting, and financing | Professional fees and any debt payments, contractual obligations, or revenue-share commitments due during the forecast. |
| Marketing and release | Campaign work and release support, including testing, QA, and platform-related work where applicable. |
Mark each item as recurring or one-time and note when it is due. A bookkeeping service or accounting software can help keep actual transactions organized, but the forecast still needs clear assumptions about when cash moves.
UK tax guidance from HMRC notes that game costs may be agreed and monitored at the outset while the income a game can generate is more uncertain. That observation appears in HMRC’s video-game-development-company manual and concerns UK tax treatment; it is not general tax advice for studios elsewhere.
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Use runway as a diagnostic, then inspect the cash dates
A simple runway indicator is:
Runway in months = unrestricted cash ÷ average monthly net cash outflow
Define both parts consistently. Use cash the studio can spend for the numerator and average monthly net cash outflow for the denominator. If receipts exceed outflows over the period used, the ratio is not a meaningful estimate of how long cash lasts; inspect the forecast instead.
The ratio can conceal an upcoming large payment, delayed receipt, or changing burn rate. Use the monthly forecast to identify the date cash would fall below a chosen minimum operating balance, and state which assumptions determine that date. If the studio’s cash flows are uneven, the forecast—not the ratio—should guide operating decisions.
Build baseline and downside cases
Maintain at least two scenarios. The baseline should reflect your current best-supported plan; the downside should test plausible setbacks rather than an arbitrary worst case. Compare closing cash month by month and make the assumptions visible.
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|---|---|---|
| Schedule | Current estimated milestone and release timing | A later schedule and the additional months of costs it creates |
| Team and completion costs | Planned staffing and estimate to complete | Higher or longer-running costs, or a changed team plan |
| Receipts | Expected amounts and realistic arrival dates | Delayed, reduced, or absent uncertain receipts |
| Unknowns | Explicit contingency reserved for unplanned costs | Greater pressure on that reserve or a newly identified cost |
There is no evidence-based universal contingency percentage for an indie studio. Set a reserve based on the uncertainties in your own plan, and show the cash effect if it is needed. Do not make an uncertain receipt appear committed simply to improve the downside case.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Compare funding paths by timing, obligations, and workload
Compare each option on the same dimensions: when money can arrive, how certain it is, what control or rights are affected, whether repayment or revenue share applies, what support is included, and what work and cost remain with the studio. The terms of any specific deal must be checked directly; the categories below are planning questions, not claims about standard terms.
| Funding path | Cash timing and certainty | Control and obligations to assess | Work or cost to model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Publisher financing | Identify the conditions and milestones that must be met before each payment; do not treat a pitch or unsigned discussion as funding. | Review rights, creative control, repayment, and revenue-share terms in the proposed deal. | Include any work needed to reach signing and each payment milestone. |
| Self-publishing or a game fund | Verify current program rules and decision timing; separate an application from an award or signed commitment. | Check what rights or obligations attach to funding and what control the studio retains. | Model marketing, testing, QA, and operational responsibilities the studio will carry. |
| Client or co-development work | Forecast contracted receipts by their payment dates, not merely by the work’s start date. | Record contract obligations and any effect on the studio’s original IP. | Account for the team capacity and schedule taken away from the studio’s own game. |
| Crowdfunding | Do not count the campaign target as guaranteed cash; model uncertain results and timing. | Include delivery promises and other obligations made to backers. | Include campaign preparation and the cost and capacity required to fulfill rewards or commitments. |
GDC’s 2026 trends report describes a difficult funding market in which many publishers and investors expect a prototype or more before signing. Treat a pitch as a plan tied to specific uses and assumptions, not just a total funding ask. The report also describes Outersloth as a game fund and reports that it had signed about 1.4% of submitted games at the time of the interview. That figure is specific to one fund at that time, not a general acceptance rate for funds, grants, or publishers; check any program’s current rules directly.
A GDC 2019 session description discusses using client work alongside original IP and building a fanbase with Kickstarter. Those are possible approaches to evaluate, not evidence that either will provide a predictable amount of cash for a particular studio.
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- Compare actual receipts and payments with the forecast, and identify material differences.
- Update the schedule and the estimate to complete using the latest project plan.
- Move uncertain receipts to dates supported by current conditions, or remove them if they are no longer plausible.
- Recalculate baseline and downside closing balances by month, including the date cash would breach your minimum operating balance.
- Keep financial records, ownership information, and cap-table details organized so the funding request can be tied to a coherent plan.
GDC’s 2026 State of the Game Industry summary draws on responses from more than 2,300 professionals overall; that is not an indie-studio-only sample. Within the survey, 33% of respondents at indie studios said their company had layoffs in the prior 12 months. These are survey findings, not a forecast of any one studio’s prospects or a substitute for a cash plan.
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