Poland’s plan is a staged change to the power system, not a one-for-one swap of coal plants for nuclear reactors. Government plans combine renewables, nuclear generation and gas for balancing, alongside grid upgrades, reserves and storage. The dates and capacity figures below are targets or projections—not completed changes to the electricity system.
What is meant by “replacing coal power” in Poland?
The adopted 2021 Energy Policy of Poland to 2040 (EPP2040) anticipates withdrawing a large amount of coal-fired capacity from the national system by 2040. That is a plan for capacity withdrawal, not a binding date by which all coal-fired electricity generation must end. The cited EPP2040 policy page does not set a single coal-power end date.
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The newer nuclear program and updated National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK) add current project milestones and energy-mix projections to that adopted baseline. They describe a portfolio approach: expand renewable generation, add nuclear capacity, and use gas and other system resources to help keep supply and demand balanced as the mix changes. The policies cite lower emissions, diversified sources and reduced reliance on fossil fuels as aims; those aims are not evidence that the results have already been achieved.
How the different sources are meant to work together
| Source or measure | Planned system role | What the plans establish |
|---|---|---|
| Coal | Existing capacity is expected to decline as older or less-needed units leave the system. | EPP2040 anticipates substantial capacity withdrawals by 2040; the cited page does not establish a binding end date for coal-fired generation. |
| Renewables | Provide the largest projected contribution to future energy production, with output that needs flexibility and grid support. | The updated KPEiK projects a renewable share of 65.6–68.9% of energy production in 2040, depending on scenario. This is a government projection, not an achieved result, and the stated measure should not be treated as a percentage of electricity generation without further qualification. |
| Nuclear | Add planned, steady generation as the country builds new capacity. | The 2026 government program sets a goal of two plants with up to 9 GWe combined; the plants are planned, not operating. |
| Natural gas | Provide balancing support during the transition, especially while renewable output cannot by itself provide enough flexibility for the grid. | The ministry describes gas as a transition-period balancing source; this does not make gas a permanent substitute for coal in the plan. |
| Networks, reserves and storage | Move electricity, manage variation in supply and demand, and help maintain reliable service as generation changes. | EPP2040 stresses flexible reserves, grid development and storage as renewable shares rise. These are system requirements, not proof that the needed infrastructure is already in place. |
What is the plan for Poland’s first nuclear plant?
The 2026 government program plans the first plant as three AP1000 reactors with about 3.75 GWe of combined capacity. The government says the project has moved from preparation into implementation. Its stated milestones are:
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- December 2025: the European Commission approved a public-support model, according to the government’s 2026 update.
- March 2026: the project company applied for a construction permit, according to that update.
- 2036: planned commercial operation of the first reactor block.
- 2038: planned date for the whole first plant to reach full power.
The government update allocates PLN 60.2 billion for project capitalization during 2025–2030. This is planned funding, not a guarantee of the final schedule or the project’s total cost.
Where and when could the second plant be built?
Bełchatów and Konin are preferred locations under assessment, not a final site selection. The government’s schedule calls for selection of a partner and reactor technology in 2027, construction around 2032 and first-block operation around 2040. The program describes the prospective plant as using large Generation III+ water-reactor technology, but the location and supplier remain undecided.
Those milestones are plans rather than operating dates. The second project therefore cannot yet be treated as a confirmed, site-specific plant with a selected technology provider.
What do the renewable and gas projections mean?
The updated KPEiK gives renewables the largest projected role in the future energy mix. Its 2040 scenarios put renewable energy at 65.6–68.9% of energy production. The range reflects different scenarios; it is not a single guaranteed outcome. Because the government summary states this figure as a share of energy production, it should not automatically be read as the share of electricity generation.
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The ministry’s planning assumption is that natural gas will help balance the system while renewable generation does not yet have enough flexibility to function on its own in the grid. In a statement to the Sejm on June 18, 2026, Undersecretary of State Konrad Wojnarowski described that transitional role:
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“Transformacja energetyczna będzie opierać się na stopniowym odchodzeniu od węgla przy jednoczesnym wykorzystaniu gazu ziemnego jako paliwa przejściowego, które będzie stabilizować system elektroenergetyczny i zapewniać bezpieczeństwo dostaw energii do czasu uruchomienia energetyki jądrowej.”
Translation: “The energy transition will be based on a gradual move away from coal while using natural gas as a transition fuel that will stabilize the power system and ensure security of energy supply until nuclear power is commissioned.”
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could affect whether the transition is delivered on schedule?
Building generating capacity is only part of the work. The government’s nuclear program identifies several delivery priorities, but naming them does not establish that they are already resolved:
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches- Financing and timing: project funding and construction schedules must support the announced milestones; the government’s planned capitalization is not a final-cost guarantee.
- Grid and transmission buildout: new generation must be connected and electricity moved where it is needed. Higher renewable output also increases the need for flexible reserves and storage.
- Workforce and domestic supply chains: the program calls for developing the skills and local industrial capacity needed to deliver nuclear projects.
- Regulatory oversight and waste management: nuclear construction and operation require regulatory capacity and arrangements for radioactive waste.
- Public communication and regional effects: the shift away from coal affects coal-producing areas and workers as well as national generation. EPP2040’s transition rationale includes managing those regional effects, while the nuclear program lists public communication as a delivery priority.
The ministry’s KPEiK summary also gives local-content assumptions of about 40% for the first reactor, 45% for the second and 50% for the third, alongside an investment assumption of about PLN 223 billion. These are government planning assumptions, not evidence of realized supplier participation or a final project-cost figure.
What the plan does—and does not—promise
Poland’s stated direction is to reduce coal-fired capacity over time while expanding renewables and developing nuclear generation, with gas serving as a balancing fuel during the transition. The nuclear program supplies targets and schedules, while KPEiK supplies scenario-based projections. Neither set of figures turns a planned plant, a projected mix or a capacity-withdrawal expectation into an accomplished result. Nor does the cited EPP2040 page establish a single binding date for ending coal-fired electricity generation.
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