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Climate change can alter the water entering and leaving Great Plains river basins by shifting precipitation, snowmelt, temperature and evapotranspiration. Wetlands store and exchange water with rivers, groundwater and the atmosphere, so losing them can change local water storage and flow timing. The outcome depends on where a wetland is, how it connects to a river and groundwater, and which flow measure is considered; the available evidence does not establish one region-wide effect of wetland loss on river flows.
How does climate change affect river flows in the Great Plains?
River flow reflects more than rainfall. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) describes streamflow as responding to precipitation supply and evapotranspiration demand. Snowmelt, groundwater, land cover, water withdrawals and consumption, return flows, channel characteristics and other basin conditions also shape how much water reaches a river and when. As a result, a change in precipitation does not translate directly into a predictable change in streamflow.
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Climate change can affect several parts of this water balance: the amount, timing and intensity of precipitation; the share of precipitation that falls as snow; when snow melts; and the water lost through evapotranspiration as temperatures change. The resulting flow response depends on local conditions, including how saturated soils are before a storm, how long and intense the event is, and the basin’s land cover and physical form. The USGS’s 2025 national synthesis emphasizes that streamflow trends vary widely across the country for these reasons.
Why location matters across the Great Plains
The Great Plains are not one climate zone. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s 2024 summary of Fifth National Climate Assessment findings describes an east-to-west gradient of increasing elevation and decreasing precipitation. Northern and Southern Great Plains findings also differ, so a trend observed in one part of the region should not be assumed to apply everywhere.
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Northern Great Plains
The USGS’s 2025 synthesis projects substantial increases in winter and spring precipitation for the Northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Northeast. More precipitation does not guarantee a particular river-flow response: basin shape, land use and cover, event duration, and antecedent soil saturation influence how much water runs off. The EPA’s regional summary also identifies drought, floods and wildfires among climate-driven extremes in the Northern Great Plains.
Southern Great Plains
According to the EPA’s 2024 summary, annual average temperatures increased from 1900 to 2020 by 1.5°F in Texas and Kansas and 0.6°F in Oklahoma. Annual precipitation increased across most of the Southern Great Plains during that period, except far west Texas. Days with at least 2 inches of precipitation became more frequent, with larger increases in the eastern half of the region. These are distinct state and subregional findings, not a single uniform trend for every Great Plains basin.
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A historical watershed example
A 2004 study by J. Garbrecht, M. Van Liew and G. O. Brown examined ten watersheds in Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. It found that an upward precipitation trend during the final two decades of the twentieth century had a strong effect on streamflow and a comparatively weaker effect on evapotranspiration; the amounts differed among watersheds. This is evidence that streamflow in those watersheds was sensitive to precipitation over that period, not a current forecast or a universal relationship.
How wetlands store and exchange water
Wetland hydrology is a site-specific water budget. Precipitation and surface-water and groundwater inflows contribute water; evapotranspiration, surface-water and groundwater outflows remove it; and the amount stored changes over time. USGS descriptions distinguish, among other types, isolated prairie potholes and wetlands on river floodplains.
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Prairie pothole wetlands
Isolated basin wetlands such as prairie potholes receive direct precipitation and runoff from nearby uplands. Some also receive groundwater. Water can leave through evapotranspiration or seepage, and a wetland may overflow during wet periods. Its effect on a river therefore depends in part on whether and when it connects to surface water or groundwater.
Floodplain wetlands
Floodplain wetlands receive precipitation and runoff and commonly exchange water with groundwater. When a river rises, floodwaters may inundate them; as water levels recede, some of that water can drain back. Their connection to the river and the timing of inundation make their role different from that of an isolated basin wetland.
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How does wetland loss affect flooding and river flow?
Removing a wetland removes a place where water can be stored and exchanged. That makes changes to local storage or flow timing plausible, but it does not establish a consistent direction or size of change in river peaks, low flows, baseflow or annual volume across the Great Plains. A wetland’s influence depends on its type, its connection to the river and groundwater, soils, season and the flow measure being examined. The USGS wetland water-budget descriptions explain these different pathways; they do not provide a single region-wide estimate of the river-flow effect of wetland loss.
In particular, it is not justified to say that losing wetlands invariably increases flooding or always decreases river flow. A claim about a specific basin needs evidence for that basin and for the relevant outcome—for example, flood peaks, seasonal timing, low flows or total annual flow. Climate effects also need to be considered alongside water management and land-use changes.
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What observations and projections show—and what they do not
Prairie pothole projections
A 2015 USGS review by David A. Renton, David M. Mushet and Edward S. DeKeyser reports that hydrologic-model projections incorporating future climate scenarios generally forecast lower water levels and longer dry periods in prairie pothole wetlands, even with potential precipitation increases. The authors caution that natural variability in climate and wetland hydrology is high. The review also describes recent precipitation increases in much of the Prairie Pothole Region that raised wetland water inputs above losses associated with warmer temperatures; those increases were within natural variability and might not persist. These projections and observations concern prairie potholes and should not be treated as a forecast for all Great Plains wetlands or rivers.
Observed change in the southern Prairie Pothole Region
A USGS publication reports that since 1993 a new precipitation regime in the southern Prairie Pothole Region corresponded with increases in pond numbers and depths, lake levels, stream flows, groundwater heights and soil moisture. The same account notes increased installation of subsurface tile drains in agricultural fields. This describes a regional shift and associated changes; it is not a controlled estimate of the effects of wetland loss, nor evidence that the same pattern applies throughout the Great Plains.
How to interpret a river-flow trend
The USGS Surface Water Flow Trends tool reports 18 streamflow metrics for fixed periods 1980–2020, 1990–2020 and 2000–2020, as well as for each site’s longest available record. These periods make it possible to examine trends at individual stations, but a detected trend does not identify its cause. Attribution requires considering climate alongside factors such as wetland change, regulation, water withdrawals and land-use change.
When comparing stations or studies, first check whether they concern the Northern or Southern Great Plains and the eastern or western part of the region. Then distinguish prairie potholes from floodplain wetlands, and identify whether the reported measure is a peak, low flow or baseflow, seasonal timing or annual volume. Finally, separate observed historical changes from modeled future projections. Without those distinctions, apparently conflicting findings may describe different places, processes or time periods.
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