To compare Bitcoin with Treasury yields, first decide whether you mean Bitcoin’s realized price return versus a quoted yield benchmark, or Bitcoin’s return versus the realized return from holding a Treasury. Those are different comparisons: a Treasury constant-maturity yield is an annualized quote from a theoretical curve, not the return an investor necessarily earned.
Choose the comparison you actually want
There are two useful questions, but they require different Treasury figures.
- Yield-hurdle comparison: Did Bitcoin’s realized return over a chosen period exceed the annualized yield quoted for a Treasury maturity? This compares Bitcoin performance with a yield benchmark; it does not compare two like-for-like realized returns.
- Investment comparison: How did Bitcoin perform versus an investor’s return from holding a Treasury over the same period? Use a specified Treasury security or a named Treasury total-return series, accounting for both price changes and coupon income. A constant-maturity Treasury (CMT) quote is not a substitute for that holding-period return.
Calculate Bitcoin’s return over a defined period
For a USD Bitcoin price series, the simple holding-period price return is:
(ending price ÷ starting price) − 1
Name the price source or benchmark, currency, start and end dates, and observation time. Bitcoin does not have one universal closing price, and different price sources or endpoint conventions can produce different results.
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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11For one reproducible convention, an SEC-hosted Nasdaq filing describes the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate as a USD rate calculated at 4 p.m. ET using trading activity observed between 3 and 4 p.m. ET. Its constituent platforms may change. This is one benchmark convention, not the only valid Bitcoin price series. SEC-hosted filing describing the reference rate.
Annualize only when it helps answer the question
For a multi-year holding-period return, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is:
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(ending value ÷ starting value)^(1 ÷ elapsed years) − 1
State the elapsed period and that you used CAGR. Annualization compresses the investment path into one rate; it does not show interim volatility or drawdowns.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesUnderstand what a Treasury yield quote measures
The U.S. Treasury’s daily par yield curve is estimated from indicative bid-side price quotations for recently auctioned securities, obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 p.m. on each trading day. These are indicative quotations, not transaction prices. Treasury estimates the curve using the monotone convex method, which replaced the former method on December 6, 2021. Treasury daily par yield curve data and methodology.
A CMT yield is read from that curve at a fixed maturity. It is a theoretical par yield and may not match the yield on any particular Treasury security. CMT quotes are bond-equivalent yields: simple annualized quotations for securities paying semiannual interest, not effective annual yields (APYs). Treasury gives this conversion from a decimal CMT yield I to an effective annual yield: (1 + I/2)² − 1. Convert only if your comparison calls for an effective annual convention, and disclose the conversion. Treasury’s interest-rate data FAQ.
Nominal versus inflation-adjusted comparison
For an inflation-sensitive analysis, a real Treasury yield may be more relevant than a nominal yield. Treasury’s real par curve is based on TIPS quotations, and its series began January 2, 2004. State whether your comparison is nominal or inflation-adjusted and apply consistent treatment to both sides; a real Treasury yield is not directly comparable to a nominal Bitcoin price return without explaining the difference. Treasury daily real yield curve data.
Align dates, endpoints, and annualization
A reproducible comparison should use the same start and end dates, currency, holding period, and annualization convention. Treasury yields are published for trading days and use observations at or near 3:30 p.m. ET; the cited Bitcoin benchmark is calculated at 4 p.m. ET from a 3–4 p.m. observation window. State how you chose the endpoints—for example, the latest available observation on or before each date—and use that rule consistently.
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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Bitcoin can move substantially between observations, so changing the price benchmark or endpoint time can change the result. Treasury curve observations are also indicative quotations rather than trades. A comparison should describe the conventions used rather than imply that both figures are directly observed investment returns.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Interpret the result without overstating it
A Bitcoin return above a CMT quote means Bitcoin’s realized return exceeded that selected annualized yield benchmark over the stated comparison, according to the chosen calculation. It does not establish that Bitcoin was the better investment on a risk-adjusted basis, that an investor could have earned the quoted CMT rate over the full period, or that either asset will perform similarly in the future.
If the goal is to compare investment quality, show risk measures such as realized volatility and maximum drawdown for the same dates. A risk-adjusted comparison also needs an explicit risk-free-rate convention and calculation; a raw return-versus-yield comparison is not risk-adjusted.
A Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago working paper dated August 2026 estimates time-varying Bitcoin betas and reports that Bitcoin betas for Treasury bond returns were not distinguishable from zero in its specifications. That is a result for the study’s data and methods, not a universal conclusion about Bitcoin’s relationship with Treasuries in every period. Chicago Fed working paper.
Keep curve-method figures in context
Treasury’s methodology-change information sheet compared the monotone convex curve method with the former quasi-cubic Hermite spline method over October 1, 2020–September 30, 2021. Average nominal CMT rate differences ranged from −0.1 to 0.5 basis points, while average real CMT rate differences ranged from −2.7 to −0.6 basis points. These are methodology-comparison figures, not Bitcoin performance statistics. Treasury methodology-change information sheet.
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