The Tool Desk
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Where to find atmospheric river forecast maps
Two research centers provide the most useful starting points: NOAA PSL offers a convenient collection of model graphics and landfall probability maps, while CW3E provides a wider range of forecast and verification tools.
| Source | Best for | What it offers | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA PSL Atmospheric River Portal | Quick access to forecast maps and West Coast landfall probabilities | Integrated water vapor (IWV), integrated water vapor transport (IVT), and time-integrated IVT graphics from deterministic NCEP GFS and NAM models and GEFS ensemble products. NOAA says the deterministic graphics extend to 180 forecast hours. GEFS West Coast landfall graphics show magnitude, probability, and timing, including inland areas. | Check the model initialization time and the details for the specific graphic; a deterministic map shows one model scenario. |
| CW3E forecast products | Comparing scenarios, viewing precipitation and atmospheric river diagnostics, and checking forecast performance | Deterministic maps, ensemble landfall tools, IVT plumes, West-WRF, vertical cross sections, precipitation forecasts, and an AR Landfall MET/MODE verification tool that compares forecast atmospheric-river objects and precipitation with observations. | Product coverage and timing differ by model. CW3E labels the model data products on its Atmospheric River Scale page experimental. |
NOAA PSL is a practical first stop if you want a map of the forecast or a probability view for West Coast landfall. CW3E is useful when you want to compare a range of ensemble outcomes, inspect precipitation or vertical structure, or see how forecasts compare with observations.
How to interpret forecast uncertainty
A deterministic forecast is a single model run, not a promise that conditions will unfold exactly as shown. For uncertainty, look at ensemble products: they run a model in multiple ways to show a range of possible outcomes.
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Read probability maps with the threshold in mind
NOAA PSL’s GEFS landfall graphics display probabilities at IVT thresholds, along with magnitude and timing. A probability is tied to the threshold shown on that product; it does not by itself state how much rain a specific community will receive or whether flooding will occur. Check the map legend and product details before interpreting a shaded area.
Use plume spread, not just the average
CW3E’s IVT plume diagrams show individual ensemble traces, a control run, an ensemble mean, and 10th- and 90th-percentile values. The spread among traces helps show how much forecast outcomes differ. A tightly grouped set of traces indicates more agreement among those ensemble members; a wider spread signals greater uncertainty. The mean is one summary, not a substitute for the range.
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CW3E describes its GEFS landfall tool as showing likelihood and timing from ensemble members over the next 16 days. That horizon is useful for monitoring a developing pattern, but a forecast that far out should not be read as a precise local impact prediction. Use nearer-term updates and local forecasts as an event approaches.
What the Atmospheric River Scale tells you
The CW3E Atmospheric River Scale combines two characteristics: the duration of atmospheric-river conditions and maximum IVT. CW3E defines an atmospheric-river condition using IVT above 250 kg m−1 s−1. The page includes observed and forecast products from GEFS and ECMWF EPS, with map and plume views; it lists 31 GEFS ensemble members and 51 ECMWF EPS members.
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Use the scale as a summary of the atmospheric river’s intensity and duration, not as a standalone local flood forecast. CW3E states that all model data products on the scale page are experimental. The scale does not replace checking local precipitation, river conditions, terrain, or official alerts.
Check observations and local water conditions
Compare forecasts with observations
NOAA PSL’s Atmospheric River Observatory network has nine observatories along the contiguous U.S. West Coast. Its plots can display observations alone or alongside NWS forecast-model output, which is updated hourly. These observations can help you see what is happening at monitored locations and compare it with model guidance; they are not a substitute for conditions at every point along the coast.
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CW3E’s AR Landfall MET/MODE tool offers another perspective by comparing gridded forecasts of atmospheric-river objects and precipitation with observations. It is a verification resource, not a guarantee that a particular future forecast will be accurate.
For river and reservoir context, use the regional forecast center
In California and Nevada, the California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) provides interactive river and reservoir forecast guidance. CNRFC says this guidance is not an official warning. For official hydrologic watches, warnings, statements, and advisories in its area, it directs the public to products from the relevant National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO).
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How to use the maps when impacts matter
- Start with NOAA PSL. Open its Atmospheric River Portal and choose a product that matches your question: a deterministic IWV or IVT map for a model scenario, or a GEFS landfall graphic for probability, magnitude, and timing.
- Check the product time and legend. Note when the forecast was initialized, what forecast period it covers, and any threshold shown. Do not compare graphics as if they had identical timing or definitions unless the product details confirm that they do.
- Compare ensemble outcomes. Use CW3E landfall likelihood or IVT plume products to see whether ensemble members broadly agree or span a wide range of outcomes.
- Look at the scale and observations. Use the AR Scale to summarize duration and IVT intensity, and consult observatory plots or verification products for observational context.
- Hand off to local official information. For a real location and potential impacts, check the relevant WFO’s current forecasts and alerts. In California and Nevada, use CNRFC for river and reservoir guidance and WFO products for official hydrologic alerts.
How to treat newer experimental forecast tools
NOAA’s Weather Program Office reported on March 17, 2026, that AR-AFS precipitation maps could be viewed on the Global Systems Laboratory’s DESI website and remained experimental at that time. NOAA described operational use by autumn 2028 as a conditional target, dependent on further development and testing. Check the tool’s current status before relying on it; that future target is not a confirmed operational launch date.
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