In a standard prediction-market contract that pays $1 for the correct outcome and $0 for the wrong one, a YES price of 63¢ means the market is pricing YES at about 63% implied probability. It does not guarantee the event will happen. If you buy a share for 63¢ and it wins, your gross profit is 37¢; if it loses, you lose the 63¢ purchase price.
What a prediction-market price means
A binary prediction-market contract asks whether a specific event will occur. Its YES and NO positions settle to opposite outcomes. In the common $1-payout structure, the winning position pays $1 per share and the losing position pays $0. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) explains that “A contract’s price reflects traders’ perceived probability of the event outcome.” CFTC consumer guidance describes the price as a market view, not a promise or a guaranteed-accurate forecast.
So a YES share priced at 63¢ is commonly read as about a 63% market-implied probability. That figure is not a measured real-world frequency, and it can change as traders’ orders and beliefs change. Kalshi’s odds explainer also describes contract prices as market-implied probabilities.
How to calculate a prediction-market payout
For a standard binary share held until settlement, let p be the price you pay in dollars. The gross payout and profit depend on whether your position wins or loses:
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| Result | Gross payout | Gross profit or loss |
|---|---|---|
| Position wins | $1 per share | $1 − p |
| Position loses | $0 per share | −p (the purchase cost is lost) |
For n shares, multiply each per-share amount by the number of shares: total cost is n × p; winning gross payout is n × $1; winning gross profit is n × ($1 − p); and the amount lost if the position loses is n × p. Fees and taxes can reduce net profit. These calculations follow the CFTC’s fixed-payout example and Kalshi’s explanation of price, amount at risk, and potential winnings.
Example: 10 YES shares at 25¢
Buying 10 shares at $0.25 each costs $2.50. If YES resolves true, the shares pay $10 gross, leaving $7.50 gross profit before fees and taxes. If YES resolves false, the $2.50 purchase cost is lost.
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How price relates to potential winnings
- 25¢: about 25% implied probability; a winning share pays $1, or 3-to-1 potential winnings relative to the 25¢ stake. The gross profit is 75¢.
- 50¢: about 50% implied probability; the share risks 50¢ to earn 50¢ gross profit if it wins—an even-money outcome.
- 75¢: about 75% implied probability; the share risks 75¢ to earn 25¢ gross profit if it wins.
Use the actual price you would pay for a NO share when calculating its payout. Do not assume the available YES and NO prices add to exactly $1: bids, asks, and the spread can differ.
Why the displayed odds may differ from your trade
A displayed probability or last-traded price is not necessarily the price available for your order. Kalshi’s market glossary defines the bid as the best resting buy price, the ask as the lowest resting sell price, and the spread as the distance between them. The ask and the quantity available at that price matter when you are buying; an order may execute at a different price if available quantity is insufficient or prices move.
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A position also does not have to be held until settlement. If you sell it earlier, the result is a trading gain or loss based on the sale price and your purchase price, rather than the final $1-or-$0 payout. The price can move in either direction before the event resolves.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Checks to make before relying on a payout figure
- Read the contract terms. Check the exact event wording, expiration, settlement source, and settlement method. A market’s resolution criteria may not match what you mean by the event in everyday conversation.
- Check an executable price. Review the bid, ask, spread, and available quantity rather than relying only on a displayed probability or last price.
- Account for costs. Check the current fee schedule for the platform and market, as well as any applicable taxes. Both can affect your return.
- Confirm the payout structure. The formulas above apply to a $1/$0 binary contract. Multiple-choice contracts or ranges with partial payouts require calculations based on their specific settlement rules.
- Review the contract-specific rules and risks. The CFTC advises customers to understand contract terms, costs, and risks and to use only risk capital. Eligibility and protections depend on the venue and applicable rules.
Exact fees, price-display conventions, eligibility, and settlement rules vary by venue and contract and may change. Consult the current official rules for the specific market before using a quoted payout as an estimate of what you would receive.
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