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Yes, in parts of southeast Australia, colonisation and the suppression of Indigenous fire management contributed to more fuel building up and greater biomass being burned. But colonisation was not the sole cause of wildfire danger across the continent, and “worse” can mean different things: more fires, more area or biomass burned, greater intensity, or more dangerous fire weather. Those measures have different histories and drivers.
What the evidence says about colonisation and bushfire danger
A peer-reviewed analysis of southeast Australia used sediment charcoal and pollen records alongside modelling to compare fire history with climate and vegetation change. It found that biomass burned increased after colonisation in association with vegetation and land-use change. The authors conclude that the suppression of Indigenous land management contributed to biomass accumulation and more connected fuels. A major regional precipitation decline followed about a century later, so the study does not attribute the whole change to one cause. Read the study.
This is evidence about a particular region and a long-term pattern, not a measurement showing that colonisation increased fire danger by the same amount everywhere in Australia. The continent contains very different climates, vegetation and fire regimes.
Did European settlement mean more fires or more intense fires?
Fire frequency and fire intensity are not interchangeable. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ historical account describes settlement pressure reducing Aboriginal ignitions in many areas. It says that in some places annual burning gave way to longer intervals, allowing vegetation and fuel to accumulate. Fires occurred less often, but could be more intense when they did. The account also distinguishes dry woodlands from wet forests and notes that prospectors and graziers used fire differently.
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“Despite the popular view that European settlement increased the frequency of fire in the country, it is clear from the historical evidence that as European settlement increased, fire frequency decreased.”
The ABS account, published in Year Book Australia 1995, is historical context rather than a current nationwide count. Its central distinction matters: fewer ignitions or less frequent burning do not necessarily mean less severe fires. See the ABS account.
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How Indigenous fire management shaped vegetation
Indigenous fire management was not one uniform practice of burning frequently across the continent. The national State of the Environment assessment describes practices that varied by place, season, time of day, weather and cultural purpose. Their effects depended on local ecosystems and objectives.
A University of Wollongong account of a 2024 study reports that Indigenous population expansion and cultural fire use in southeast Australia around 6,000 years ago coincided with a 50 per cent decrease in shrubs, more grasses and a decline in high-intensity fires. The account describes dense understory shrubs as potential ladder fuels: vegetation that can help flames reach tree canopies. This is a finding reported for that study and region, not a contemporary statistic for all Australia. Read the University of Wollongong account.
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Where cultural burning was suppressed, changes in land use and vegetation could allow understorey fuel to accumulate or become more connected. That is one mechanism linking colonial disruption to fire behaviour; it does not mean every fire-managed landscape would have had the same vegetation or fire outcome.
Why the pattern differs across Australia
Australia does not have a single natural or cultural fire regime. The State of the Environment assessment notes that northern savannas can burn annually, while intervals in the wettest southern regions may span centuries. In some northern savannas, the cessation of systematic traditional management has been followed by extensive, very hot late-dry-season fires. Government material also describes savanna mosaics in which lightly burned, interconnecting patches can function as a firebreak network. These examples apply to particular landscapes; they should not be treated as a prescription for other regions.
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The broader assessment says fire risk depends on fuel, ignition and conducive weather. It reports a significant rise in season-aggregated Forest Fire Danger Index since the 1950s over most of Australia, generally driven more by lengthening fire seasons than by higher peak-season intensity. It also reports more days of very high or greater fire danger. See the fire-regimes assessment and the fire-weather assessment.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How much danger comes from climate change?
There is no single percentage in these sources that separates Australia’s bushfire danger into a colonial share and a climate-change share. The evidence describes different drivers operating on different timescales: colonial land-use and vegetation change, disruption of Indigenous management, rainfall and drought, fuel availability, ignition, and contemporary fire weather.
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The southeast Australian study found a post-colonisation rise in biomass burned associated with vegetation and land-use change, followed about a century later by a major regional precipitation decline. The national assessment’s observed fire-weather trend, meanwhile, is largely associated with longer fire seasons, with an increase in extreme and catastrophic days also discernible. Cultural burning can influence fuels and landscape patterns, but it cannot eliminate danger from hotter, drier or otherwise conducive fire weather.
Quick Recap
How to read claims that colonisation “increased wildfire danger”
- Check the geography: evidence from southeast forests does not establish the same effect across every Australian ecosystem.
- Check the outcome: fire frequency, intensity, biomass burned, fire-season length and dangerous-weather days describe different things.
- Check the timescale: sediment records reconstruct long-term history; historical accounts describe settlement-era practices; government assessments track more recent fire-weather indicators.
- Check for multiple causes: land use, Indigenous fire management, vegetation, precipitation, ignition and weather can interact rather than compete as single explanations.
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