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Governments can make borrowing more manageable without indiscriminately cutting health, education, or social protection by improving fiscal credibility, managing debt risks, and finding durable savings or revenue in less damaging places. None of these steps guarantees a lower yield on a particular bond: global rates, inflation expectations, investor demand, and perceived risk also matter.
It helps to distinguish the rate on new borrowing from the government’s total interest bill. The bill also depends on how much debt is outstanding, when it must be refinanced, the debt’s interest-rate and currency structure, inflation, and how much the government needs to borrow. A lower coupon on one new issue does not necessarily mean lower overall debt costs.
What determines a government’s borrowing costs?
Investors price government debt based on the expected return and risks of holding it. A government’s fiscal outlook and institutions matter, but so do factors it cannot control directly, including global interest rates, monetary policy, inflation expectations, market liquidity, and demand for its bonds. Debt managers can influence the terms and risks of issuance; they cannot set market yields by themselves.
The OECD’s Global Debt Report 2026 puts interest expenditures at 3.3% of GDP for the OECD-area aggregate in its latest comparison, close to the 3.4% peak over the preceding decade. That is an aggregate, not a forecast or benchmark for every country. The report also projects that, in 2026, higher interest payments add 2.5 percentage points to the aggregate OECD debt-to-GDP ratio, while inflation subtracts 2.4 points. These projections illustrate why the interest bill and the debt ratio can move differently.
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For any particular country, ask whether “borrowing costs” means the yield on new bonds, the spread over a benchmark, the average interest rate on the existing debt stock, or total interest spending. A policy can affect these measures at different speeds.
How can governments improve confidence without promising a rate cut?
Set out a credible, service-aware fiscal plan
A medium-term plan can make the path for revenue, spending, deficits, and debt easier to assess. It should state its assumptions, explain how the debt anchor will be met, and show how proposed changes affect essential services. Consistent, reliable reporting and clear communication reduce uncertainty for investors and the public; they do not guarantee a rating upgrade or a lower yield.
The IMF’s 2025 update of the Stockholm Principles emphasizes sound information, communication, and risk management in public debt management. Its 2026 discussion of South Africa describes a principles-based legal framework, a debt target, and numerical fiscal rules as potential supports for credibility and borrowing costs, while emphasizing the importance of capable public financial management institutions. This is a conditional example, not evidence that adopting a rule automatically lowers rates in another country.
Make issuance predictable and transparent
Regular auction schedules and clear explanations of planned borrowing can help investors plan and support liquidity in government securities. Predictability does not mean a government must stick to an issuance plan when financing needs or market conditions change; adjustments are more useful when they are explained and grounded in analysis.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsThe U.S. Treasury says its primary debt-management goal is “to finance the government at the lowest cost over time.” It describes regular and predictable issuance, transparent decision-making, and continuous improvements to auctions as ways to pursue that goal. It also monitors economic conditions, fiscal policy, and market activity and may adjust issuance after analysis and consultation. The OECD’s Global Debt Reports 2025 and 2026 likewise identify transparency and predictability as practices that can support liquidity, while noting that debt managers have limited control over the overall debt ratio and interest bill.
How should a government choose maturities and interest-rate structures?
The lowest initial yield is not necessarily the lowest-risk or lowest-cost choice over time. Governments need to weigh the expected funding cost against refinancing, rate, inflation, and currency exposure. The right balance depends on the existing debt portfolio, market depth, forecasts, and the government’s tolerance for risk.
| Debt choice | Potential advantage | Main exposure or trade-off |
|---|---|---|
| Shorter maturity | May avoid some of the term premium investors require for longer lending. | Debt must be refinanced more often, exposing the budget to a rate increase or market disruption at rollover. |
| Longer maturity | Reduces how often principal must be refinanced and can provide greater predictability. | May carry a higher initial yield than shorter-term borrowing. |
| Fixed-rate debt | Interest payments are more predictable over the instrument’s term. | The government may pay more initially than on a variable-rate instrument. |
| Variable-rate debt | May have a lower initial cost in some market conditions. | Payments can rise when rates reset. |
| Inflation-linked debt | Can allocate inflation risk differently between the issuer and investors. | Payments or principal can change with inflation; the resulting cost depends on the instrument’s terms and inflation path. |
The OECD’s Global Debt Report 2026 notes that many countries shifted issuance toward shorter maturities amid higher long-term borrowing costs, but warns that this increases refinancing risk. A government should not treat maturity shortening as a risk-free saving.
How can governments reduce currency and hidden-liability risks?
Match foreign-currency borrowing to repayment capacity
Foreign-currency debt can appear cheaper when its quoted interest rate is lower. But depreciation raises the domestic-currency cost of both principal and interest. The IMF’s What Is Sovereign Debt? (December 1, 2022) identifies currency choice and interest structure, as well as debt volume and external vulnerabilities, as factors shaping sovereign risk. Older IMF Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment advise, where feasible, aligning foreign borrowing with the currency composition of export and other external receipts and actively managing the portfolio to avoid above-market interest or exchange costs. This is a risk-management principle, not a rule that fits every country or market.
Account for liabilities beyond direct government bonds
Guarantees, state-owned enterprises, public-private arrangements, and other explicit or implicit commitments can create future demands on the budget. The IMF’s Stockholm Principles say debt management should account for relevant interactions with financial assets and contingent liabilities. Tracking these exposures helps avoid a sudden fiscal surprise that undermines a debt plan or investor confidence.
Where can fiscal adjustment find savings while protecting services?
Reducing a deficit is not the same as cutting frontline capacity indiscriminately. Before reducing essential services, governments can assess whether existing spending and revenue systems are delivering durable value. Each option should be judged by its net fiscal effect, distributional burden, growth consequences, administrative feasibility, and effect on access to and quality of services.
- Improve spending efficiency: Review procurement, program delivery, and administrative processes for savings that do not reduce effective service coverage. Verify that expected savings are achievable and recurring.
- Review subsidies and tax expenditures: Examine whether poorly targeted support or tax breaks achieve their stated purpose. Changes can shift costs onto households or firms, so assess distributional effects and protect people who rely on essential support.
- Strengthen tax compliance and consider durable revenue options: Closing tax gaps or broadening the tax base may raise revenue without relying solely on cuts. Implementation capacity and the effects on households, businesses, and growth matter.
- Protect essential service capacity: Make the consequences for health, education, and social protection explicit when sequencing adjustment. The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor, April 2026, warns that fiscal adjustment can force cuts to these services and points to domestic revenue mobilization and targeted efficiency measures as elements of more durable adjustment.
The IMF’s 2026 Fiscal Monitor discusses country examples involving digital public administration, pressures on health and pharmaceutical spending, fuel subsidies, and tax expenditures. These are areas to evaluate, not automatic savings recipes: a measure only helps if it produces sustainable net savings while maintaining the services and protections people need.
Adjustment can also affect the economy’s ability to grow and repay debt. The IMF’s sovereign-debt explainer notes that governments borrow to smooth taxes during downturns, support fiscal stimulus, and finance long-term investment. Abrupt cuts during a recession may weaken output and revenue, which can work against debt sustainability as well as service provision. This does not exempt programs from review; it makes the near-term saving and its longer-term effects part of the same decision.
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The IMF’s 2023 analysis, summarized in How to Tackle Soaring Public Debt, reports that consolidation averaging 0.4 percentage point of GDP reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio by an average of 0.7 percentage point after one year and by up to 2.1 percentage points after five years in the analyzed sample. These are sample debt-ratio effects—not estimates of a guaranteed bond-yield reduction, and not evidence that services will be protected automatically.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.When can debt exchanges, guarantees, or swaps help?
Buybacks, exchanges, maturity extensions, guarantees, and debt-for-development transactions can change refinancing needs or free fiscal resources in particular circumstances. They do not erase liabilities. Fees, conditionality, contingent obligations, foreign-exchange exposure, and future payment commitments can offset or complicate the benefit, so governments should assess the full terms and risks rather than headline savings alone.
An IMF review of Côte d’Ivoire in 2026 describes a debt-for-development swap, a sustainability-linked loan package with a World Bank Group guarantee, AfDB-backed ESG financing, Eurobond issuance, and a currency swap. The review says these operations lowered debt-servicing costs, lengthened maturities, and freed fiscal space; it also reports a buyback of nearly EUR 400 million of existing high-interest variable-rate commercial debt. This is a country-specific account of transactions under Côte d’Ivoire’s conditions, not a transferable template or a general estimate of what similar operations would save elsewhere.
What should policymakers monitor after changing the plan?
A credible strategy needs ongoing checks, not just a one-time announcement. Governments can monitor whether debt service is becoming more predictable and affordable, whether refinancing needs are concentrated in risky periods, and whether planned savings or revenues are materializing without weakening essential service access.
- Track yields on new issues separately from the average cost and total interest bill on outstanding debt.
- Review maturity, fixed- versus variable-rate, and currency exposures alongside direct debt and contingent liabilities.
- Compare actual spending, revenue, and service outcomes with the assumptions in the medium-term plan.
- Explain material changes to issuance plans and fiscal assumptions, including what changed and how risks are being managed.
The practical goal is not to force every borrowing rate lower immediately. It is to reduce avoidable uncertainty and risk, make financing decisions transparent, and pursue fiscal adjustment in ways that preserve the foundations of health, education, social protection, and future growth.
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