To assess whether a new data center can get the power it needs, build a time-resolved forecast of the facility’s load, then have the serving utility and relevant transmission provider or regional operator study the proposed point of connection. National demand projections can help frame the market, but they cannot establish capacity, cost, or an energization date at a particular site.
How much power will the data center need?
Start with a documented load forecast rather than a single peak-demand figure. A site’s power needs change as equipment is installed, utilization rises, cooling systems operate, and backup systems transfer between modes. The forecast should show both the load the facility expects to draw and how that load may change over time.
Prepare a study-ready load profile
Work with the facility’s electrical, IT, cooling, and operations teams to assemble information the utility and grid operator can validate. Provide the data in the format and model structure those entities require; requirements vary by region and service arrangement.
- Separate IT load from supporting facility loads where possible, and state the expected maximum demand.
- Describe the expected operating profile, including hourly or other time-series behavior, utilization assumptions, and major ramp events.
- Show phased energization and the expected timing of each stage, including the difference between initial service and eventual full operating load.
- Document power factor, redundancy design, cooling approach, and planned backup generation and storage behavior.
- Provide low, reference, and high cases, and explain the assumptions that would produce each one.
NERC’s May 2026 Reliability Guideline: Risk Mitigation for Emerging Large Loads recommends detailed, site-specific load characteristics and accurate, verified, updated dynamic-model data. The information should reflect the as-planned design and be updated to as-built conditions as the facility develops.
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Use national forecasts as context, not as a site forecast
Published estimates describe different time horizons and methods. They are scenarios or system-level measures, not evidence that a particular project will use the forecast amount or that a local grid can deliver it.
| Source and measure | Reported figure | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Department of Energy, reporting a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimate in 2024 | Data centers used 176 TWh, about 4.4% of U.S. electricity, in 2023. The estimate for 2028 was 325–580 TWh, approximately 6.7–12%. | A national estimate and range; not a forecast for one facility or a local deliverability finding. |
| Electric Power Research Institute, 2026 scenario study | Data centers could account for 9–17% of U.S. electricity by 2030, compared with 4–5% “today” in the study’s framing. EPRI said the 2030 range was 60% higher than its prior scenarios. | A scenario range reflecting accelerated development, not a guaranteed outcome or project-specific load forecast. |
| U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2026 analysis | U.S. net electricity demand grew about 1.7% annually during 2020–2025, compared with 0.1% annually during 2005–2019. | Economy-wide demand growth over two periods, not a data-center-only estimate. |
Do not combine these figures into a single trend line: they cover different measures, assumptions, and horizons. DOE also notes that data-center demand varies by region, can be concentrated because of location needs, and is affected by changing AI use and efficiency assumptions.
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Can the local grid support the proposed facility?
Only a location-specific study can answer that. Available capacity depends on the proposed connection point, the distribution and transmission systems serving it, forecast system conditions, reliability limits, and any upgrades or operating restrictions the study identifies. A national demand projection—or a project announcement—does not establish firm service for the site.
Identify the service path and study owners
- Contact the serving utility early. Ask it to identify the proposed point of connection and voltage level, and to clarify which utility or transmission entities are involved.
- Map the relevant grid organizations. Establish the distribution and transmission owners, balancing authority, and, where applicable, regional transmission organization or independent system operator (RTO/ISO).
- Confirm who does what. Ask which entity owns each study, what application data and models are required, the study sequence, and any deposits or milestones.
- Request the current large-load process. Ask for the rules that apply to the proposed service and how the utility coordinates with the transmission provider or regional operator.
FERC’s June 18, 2026 actions on large-load integration describe differences among regional rules and responsibilities and directed six regional operators under its jurisdiction to justify or reform large-load tariff rules. The process is evolving, so verify the rules in effect for the project and region rather than assuming one region’s approach applies elsewhere.
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Commission studies for the actual location
Ask the utility and transmission provider to determine how much load can be served, when it can be served, and under what operating conditions. The studies should use the project’s load profile and assess existing and forecast system conditions, contingencies, reliability impacts, and the upgrades or operating limits that may be necessary.
- Evaluate voltage and stability impacts, including dynamic behavior as the facility changes load.
- Review protection coordination and whether the proposed facility’s settings work with utility protection systems.
- Assess operating ramp rates and other constraints on how quickly load can rise or change.
- Identify transmission and distribution upgrades, operational restrictions, and any assumptions behind a proposed service date.
NERC recommends comprehensive transmission planning using as-planned steady-state and dynamic models for large loads. Study names, assumptions, sequence, and deliverables differ by region and service arrangement; confirm the scope directly with the entities responsible for the project.
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How can a facility’s operating behavior affect reliability?
Grid compatibility depends on more than the facility’s maximum MW demand. Controls, protection, power quality, ramping, and transitions to or from backup systems can affect how the load appears to the grid. Address these issues with the utility and grid operator as part of the planning and study process.
Coordinate controls, protection, and backup transitions
Review the facility’s UPS, backup generation, storage, transfer controls, and return-to-utility behavior with the utility’s protection and operating requirements. NERC’s March 2026 gap assessment describes risks when utility and facility protection settings are not coordinated and notes that backup-power transfer and return choices affect grid-facing behavior.
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Ask the study team to address, as applicable, ride-through, voltage and frequency response, protection settings, dynamic stability, operating ramp limits, power quality, telemetry and communications, high-resolution monitoring, load-shedding participation, and oscillation mitigation. Agree on how the facility will communicate status and respond to operating instructions before relying on those capabilities in the service plan.
How should sites and service arrangements be compared?
Compare candidate sites using the same load profile, ramp assumptions, and reliability expectations. Raw capacity figures are not enough: two sites may differ in the timing, firmness, cost, and operating conditions of service.
| Comparison area | What to establish |
|---|---|
| Dependable capacity | How much load the study says can be served, under which system conditions and operating limits, and whether the service is firm or conditional. |
| Service timing | Expected dates for initial and full service, how staged ramp-up is handled, and which assumptions or construction milestones support those dates. |
| Upgrades and cost responsibility | Required transmission and distribution work, cost allocation, schedule dependencies, and who bears cancellation or delay risk. |
| Curtailment terms | For flexible or interruptible service, the amount of load subject to curtailment, its duration, notice, expected frequency, and the conditions that trigger it. |
| Operating requirements | Reliability, protection, power-quality, telemetry, and communications requirements, including any commitments the facility must make. |
FERC’s 2026 materials describe regional differences in service options, cost transparency, study processes, and upgrade treatment. A nearby generator does not by itself prove that the requested service can be delivered: transmission and distribution capability, reliability, and applicable tariff terms still need review. Do not assume a universal MW threshold, upgrade cost, or interconnection timeline; each depends on the utility, region, connection point, study results, and rules in effect when the application is made.
What should the project team have before selecting a site?
Use the assessment to turn a power claim into a set of verifiable project conditions. Before treating a site as viable, obtain a documented load forecast, a confirmed service path, location-specific study findings, and written service and upgrade assumptions from the responsible entities. Validate the project’s commercial readiness, ramp timing, and forecast assumptions with the utility and grid operator; a public announcement or national scenario is not a service commitment.
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