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How a centralized stablecoin can fail to feel stable
A centralized stablecoin is a digital token whose issuer manages issuance and redemption and holds reserve assets outside the blockchain. That arrangement links an on-chain token to off-chain institutions and processes: reserve assets, banks, custodians, redemption systems, and—in many cases—an exchange or payment route to fiat currency. A disruption in any part of that chain can affect a holder.
It helps to separate three things that are often treated as one:
- The target price: the value the token is designed to track, such as one U.S. dollar.
- The secondary-market price: what buyers and sellers are currently paying on an exchange or other market.
- Practical redemption: whether you can redeem the token for fiat at the target value, on usable terms and when you need to.
The Federal Reserve explains the distinction between primary redemption and secondary-market trading in its overview of stablecoin markets. These three measures can diverge: a token can be designed for one-dollar redemption while trading below that level, or a holder may be unable to redeem directly even if the exchange price is near its target.
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Issuer, reserve, and counterparty risk
Redemption depends on more than the headline value of an issuer’s reserves. The reserves must be sufficiently valuable, liquid, available to the issuer, and held through functioning counterparties. Deposits create exposure to banks; securities and repurchase agreements bring their own credit, market, collateral, and liquidity risks. Custody arrangements and the issuer’s ability to operate also matter.
The Federal Reserve has highlighted two structural vulnerabilities: stablecoin issuers generally lack deposit insurance and access to central-bank liquidity. It argues that stablecoins will be stable only if they can be “reliably and promptly redeemed at par” across normal and stressed conditions, including pressure on liquid government debt or an individual issuer. See Governor Michael S. Barr’s 2025 speech on stablecoins.
A reported reserve balance is therefore not identical to cash immediately available to every holder. Asset quality, legal access, custody, concentration, and the speed at which assets can be converted all affect whether redemptions can be met promptly.
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Redemption and liquidity risk
A holder’s route from token to fiat may depend on account eligibility, minimums, fees, operating hours, banking rails, technical availability, and legal restrictions. Some holders rely on an exchange’s market rather than having a direct redemption relationship with the issuer. Issuer terms can also make redemption conditional in specified circumstances.
Stress can make these constraints more important. A large wave of simultaneous redemptions may strain operational processes or delay access, even when reserves consist of high-quality liquid assets. Liquid assets can still take time to settle or convert, and concentrated withdrawals can expose timing and access problems. The Federal Reserve discusses these dynamics in its analysis of primary and secondary markets; Circle’s 2025 annual report also describes the potential effects of concentrated redemptions and stress on reserve sufficiency (SEC filing).
Depeg and market-liquidity risk
If confidence falls, or if direct redemption and arbitrage are impaired, a stablecoin can trade below its target on secondary markets. A depeg is a market-price event; by itself, it does not prove that reserves have been permanently lost. The severity and duration depend on the circumstances, including confidence, liquidity, and the ability to redeem.
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The March 2023 USDC episode shows how these risks can interact. Circle disclosed that some USDC reserves were held as deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and inaccessible during the bank’s failure. Redemption demand increased, and USDC traded below its one-dollar target while Circle’s primary-market operations were closed over the weekend. The pressure eased after public authorities announced protection for SVB depositors. The Federal Reserve recounts the episode in its account of the SVB failure and its impact on stablecoins. This is a historical example of banking concentration and redemption-access risk, not a statement about USDC’s current reserve composition.
Freezing, legal, and jurisdiction risk
Centralized issuers may have contractual or technical authority to block certain addresses, restricting transfers or access to tokens. Valid government orders or legal processes may also require an issuer to freeze or surrender funds. The powers and procedures are issuer- and jurisdiction-specific; they should not be assumed to apply identically to every stablecoin.
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Operational, cyber, and blockchain risk
Issuance and redemption rely on issuer systems, banks, custodians, exchanges, wallet providers, and blockchain networks. A cyberattack, software defect, network congestion, or service outage can interrupt transfers or delay redemption. An outage does not necessarily mean the reserves are impaired, but it can prevent a holder from moving or accessing tokens at the needed time.
Circle specifically discloses the possibility of attacks and technical difficulties causing interruptions or failed and delayed transactions in its USDC risk factors. Other issuers may describe different risks and controls in their own terms.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Regulatory and systemic risk
Rules vary across jurisdictions: they can differ on who may issue tokens, what assets may back them, what redemption policies must be disclosed, and what supervision applies. The Bank for International Settlements describes this variation in its report on regulating stablecoin issuance.
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Some laws set requirements without making every token a bank deposit or guaranteeing that holders will avoid loss. For one U.S. example, Title 12, Section 5903 of the U.S. Code addresses permitted reserve categories and public disclosure of redemption policies. What protections apply depends on the law in force, its implementation, the issuer’s status, and the holder’s jurisdiction.
How to compare centralized stablecoins
Compare the arrangements that determine whether a token can be redeemed and transferred—not just its stated peg or the size of a reserve figure.
- Reserve quality and liquidity: What assets back the token? Consider asset types, maturities, concentration, custody, and how quickly they could be converted under stress.
- Redemption access: Who is eligible to redeem directly, and what value, fees, minimums, hours, and legal conditions apply? Check the issuer’s terms and the route available to you.
- Disclosure and assurance: Do reports clearly identify assets, custodians, and liabilities? How recent and independent are they?
- Counterparty concentration: How dependent is the arrangement on a particular issuer, bank, custodian, or service provider?
- Freeze and legal powers: What do the terms say about blocked addresses, government orders, and the governing jurisdiction?
- Operational resilience: What could interrupt issuance, redemption, network transfers, or customer support during stress?
- Regulatory regime: Which rules and supervision apply to the issuer, and are those rules in force where you are?
Terms and reserve disclosures can change, so use the issuer’s current documents for a decision. A stablecoin should not be treated as an insured bank deposit or risk-free cash equivalent unless a specific legal arrangement establishes that protection.
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