Union Square Advisors President and Co-Founder Ted Smith’s detailed published outlook is a 2025 forecast, not a verified prediction of what happened in 2026. It anticipated improving technology deal activity as financing options, buyer participation and valuations became more favorable. The firm’s official insights page also lists Smith’s January 7, 2026 Bloomberg appearance under the headline “Cautious, but Needful” M&A to Define 2026, but does not provide a transcript or detailed remarks.
Who is Ted Smith?
Union Square Advisors identifies Edward (Ted) R. Smith as a Partner, Co-Founder and President. The firm says he has more than 30 years of transaction experience. He began in Morgan Stanley’s technology investment-banking group, later led Credit Suisse’s global software investment-banking practice, and served as a corporate executive at Novell. The firm also lists major technology companies among his past clients and counterparties. Union Square Advisors’ team biography provides the firm’s account of his background.
What does Union Square Advisors do?
The firm describes itself as a technology-focused investment bank. Its services include strategic mergers and acquisitions advice and execution, private capital financing, and board advisory. Its coverage includes AI and machine learning, enterprise applications and data infrastructure, cybersecurity, health technology, governance, risk and compliance (GRC), and vertical software. Those capabilities and coverage areas are described on the firm’s website.
What did the firm forecast for technology M&A in 2025?
In its January 30, 2025 Return to Momentum outlook, Union Square Advisors forecast increasing strategic and financing activity as capital markets strengthened. The firm said improving liquidity options, returning strategic and private-equity buyers, and narrowing valuation gaps were contributing to a more favorable technology M&A environment. This was the firm’s outlook for 2025; it should not be read as proof that each forecast came to pass or that those conditions continue in 2026. See the 2025 outlook report and its announcement.
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Factors behind the 2025 outlook
- Capital availability and liquidity: The firm pointed to stronger capital markets and more liquidity options.
- Buyer participation: It expected strategic acquirors and private-equity buyers to return.
- Valuations: It cited narrowing valuation gaps as a factor that could help transactions proceed.
The firm described the technology M&A market as still challenging to navigate even as it improved. Its outlook identified AI and data infrastructure, health technology, GRC, and vertical software as areas of interest.
What did the firm say about AI valuations?
The outlook cautioned that AI valuations were rising alongside expectations. Union Square Advisors argued that as generative AI moved from experimentation toward production and deployment, company valuations would become more closely tied to core business metrics. Smith put the caution this way in the firm’s January 2025 announcement: “However, AI will not be a never-ending gold mine for all investors or acquirors. As with every technology sector ever charted, new development and delivery approaches will replace their predecessors at a rapid pace.” The statement reflects the firm’s 2025 view, not a guarantee about the performance of any particular company or deal. The announcement also quotes Chairman and Co-Founder Carter McClelland saying, “We are optimistic for the year ahead,” referring to the 2025 forecast.
What did the outlook report say about secondaries?
Union Square Advisors’ 2025 outlook discussed private-market secondary transactions and attributed its figures to Lazard’s January 2025 Secondary Market Report. These are figures as reported in the Union Square Advisors outlook, not 2026 measures.
| Measure | Figure reported in the 2025 outlook |
|---|---|
| Secondary transaction volume | Approximately $150 billion in 2024, up from $110 billion in 2023 |
| Share of secondary market that was GP-led | Approximately 50% in 2024 |
| Share of GP-led transaction volume represented by continuation funds | 79% in 2024 |
The source attribution for each figure is the report’s discussion of Lazard’s January 2025 report. Read the outlook report.
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What is Ted Smith’s outlook for tech M&A in 2026?
Union Square Advisors’ official insights and media listings show that Smith appeared on Bloomberg’s The Close on January 7, 2026, under the headline “Cautious, but Needful” M&A to Define 2026. The listing does not provide the interview’s detailed remarks or a transcript. The headline alone therefore does not establish Smith’s specific 2026 forecast, and the firm’s 2025 outlook should not be presented as a current 2026 prediction.
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