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North America’s data center boom will be powered by a mix of new generation, grid expansion, storage, efficiency and more flexible demand—not by one technology or a single continental supply plan. The buildout is already adding electricity demand, but forecasts vary by region and scenario, and proposed projects may not all proceed. U.S. and Canadian projections use different measures and methods, so they should be read separately rather than added into a headline total.
How fast is data-center electricity demand growing?
United States: rapid growth, with forecasts that depend on the year and scenario
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s 2025 update reports that U.S. data-center electricity use rose 14% from 2023 to 2024. Its reference case then projects growth of 22% from 2024 to 2025 and 29% from 2025 to 2026. The first figure is a reported historical change; the next two are near-term reference-case estimates, not observed results.
In a summary of that update, the U.S. Department of Energy says data centers could account for 11.8% of U.S. electricity use by 2030, with a modeled range of 9.5% to 15.3%. The estimate models energy use based on projected equipment shipments; it does not directly model growth in grid or onsite energy supply. It therefore describes potential demand, not a finding that enough generation and network capacity will automatically be available to serve it.
A previous LBNL forecast, summarized by DOE in 2024, estimated U.S. data-center use at 176 terawatt-hours (TWh), or about 4.4% of national electricity use, in 2023. That report projected 325–580 TWh—approximately 6.7%–12% of U.S. electricity—by 2028. These are estimates from an earlier forecast vintage, not a like-for-like update to the 2025 model; the different horizons and methods matter when comparing them.
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Canada: projections vary by model and measure
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 2025 modeling puts Canadian data-center electricity demand at 3 TWh in 2025, 11 TWh in 2030 and 16 TWh in 2035. These are annual energy estimates. The Canada Energy Regulator (CER), by contrast, describes assumed additional load in gigawatts (GW)—a measure of power capacity—in scenarios extending to 2050. The values cannot be directly compared or added.
| Canadian outlook | Measure and horizon | What it assumes or projects |
|---|---|---|
| Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2025 | Annual electricity demand, TWh | 3 TWh in 2025; 11 TWh in 2030; 16 TWh in 2035 |
| CER Lower scenario, 2026 | Additional load, GW | 0.5 GW by 2030; 1.5 GW by 2050 |
| CER Current Measures scenario, 2026 | Additional load, GW | 1.5 GW by 2030; 3.5 GW by 2050 |
| CER Higher scenario, 2026 | Additional load, GW | 2.7 GW by 2030; 12 GW by 2050 |
The CER figures are scenario inputs, not a list of committed facilities. The regulator says growth is expected mainly in Ontario, Alberta and Quebec, while actual demand could be materially higher or lower than its scenarios.
Why the location of a data center matters to the grid
A national demand forecast does not show where new electricity must be delivered. Data centers tend to add large, continuous loads at specific sites, so the relevant questions for grid planners include whether local transmission and distribution networks can serve a project, when it will begin operating, how much power it will draw, and whether that demand can shift at times of system stress.
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In the United States, the Energy Information Administration’s 2026 outlook forecasts average annual electricity-load growth from 2025 to 2027 of 10% in ERCOT and 3% in PJM. These are forecasts for the grid regions, not data-center-specific growth rates. EIA also points to additional growth in central and southwestern parts of the country. The regional spread illustrates why a nationwide percentage cannot substitute for local planning.
Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator projects that the province’s commercial data-center subsector will use 3 TWh in 2026 and 16 TWh in 2050 on a net annual energy-demand basis. IESO cautions that the number and locations of proposed projects, their operating dates and their demand profiles remain uncertain. A projection of this kind is not confirmation that every proposed project will be built on schedule.
Could the boom strain the power grid or raise electricity prices?
It can create serious local planning challenges, but the outcome depends on the pace and location of load growth and on whether generation, transmission and other resources arrive in time. A large new load is not automatically a shortage: it can be served if the power system expands or adjusts sufficiently. Conversely, national supply figures cannot guarantee that capacity will be available at a constrained location when a facility needs it.
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EIA’s February 2026 high-demand exercise illustrates the uncertainty. It modeled faster demand growth while holding generating capacity at the level in its February baseline assumptions. Against that baseline, the modeled 2027 wholesale-price increase was $37 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in ERCOT and $2.60/MWh in PJM. These are conditional wholesale-market scenario results, not predictions of household or business retail bills. EIA’s scenario produces a much larger price effect in ERCOT than PJM under the assumptions it tested; it does not establish that those increases will occur if capacity, transmission or demand response changes.
In that high-demand scenario, increased natural-gas generation is the primary source of incremental electricity, with other existing resources responding differently by region. That result follows from the scenario’s capacity assumptions; it is not evidence that all additional data-center electricity in North America must come from gas, or that every region will have the same generation mix.
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The International Energy Agency’s 2026 outlook expects U.S. electricity use to rise by more than 420 TWh over the five years to 2030, with data centers accounting for about half of that increase. The IEA also identifies buildings, manufacturing and transportation as contributors. The figure is a projected increase in total U.S. electricity use, not data-center demand alone, and it should not be confused with a North American total.
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What can supply the additional electricity?
There is no single supply fix for a load that is both large and geographically concentrated. DOE’s 2024 and 2025 materials describe a portfolio that combines new power resources with grid infrastructure and ways to reduce or shift demand. Which mix works depends on local conditions, the timing of projects and the need for dependable power around the clock.
Add generation and retain dependable resources
- Scale near-term generation: DOE identifies solar and land-based wind among options that can be deployed relatively quickly, alongside batteries that can store electricity and provide power when generation or grid conditions require it.
- Support clean firm power: Continuous data-center operations make dependable supply important. DOE points to existing nuclear and hydropower infrastructure and identifies next-generation nuclear and geothermal as potential sources of clean firm power.
- Use sites and infrastructure strategically: Reusing retired power-station sites may take advantage of existing grid connections and other infrastructure, where suitable. It does not remove the need to assess the capacity and condition of the network serving each site.
Expand the grid and make demand more adaptable
- Build transmission and local capacity: New lines and upgrades can move power to growing load centers, while local distribution work may be needed to connect large facilities. Planning has to account for project location and operating date, not just national energy totals.
- Use storage and flexible demand: Storage can shift electricity across time. Some data-center operations may be able to adjust or defer certain workloads, but the extent of flexibility depends on the service and technical requirements; it should not be assumed for every facility or every hour.
- Improve efficiency and planning: More efficient equipment and operations can limit the electricity needed for a given amount of computing. Planning and rate structures can also influence when and where large loads connect and how their costs and grid impacts are managed.
These options serve different roles: generation supplies energy, firm resources help meet demand when variable output is low, transmission and distribution deliver electricity, and storage or flexible demand can help balance timing. A reliable plan must consider the combination rather than treating any one technology as a complete answer.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the Canadian outlook says about supply
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 2025 projection assumes utility generation grows to meet its modeled data-center demand, with wind and nuclear contributing especially to that expansion. It also projects that Canada will continue to be a net electricity exporter to the United States. Those are national modeling results; they do not establish that every province, project or local grid connection will have adequate power without additional planning.
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The CER’s scenario assumptions place most expected Canadian data-center load growth in Ontario, Alberta and Quebec. In Ontario specifically, IESO’s outlook shows a large potential rise in annual commercial data-center demand but emphasizes uncertainty about project counts, locations, timelines and load profiles. These provincial and system-level details are essential to interpreting the national picture.
What the forecasts can—and cannot—tell you
- Energy is not the same as capacity: TWh measures electricity consumed over a period; GW describes power capacity or load. A facility’s peak demand and its annual energy use answer different planning questions.
- Scenarios are conditional: A reference case, higher-demand case or lower-demand case represents assumptions about future development, not a guaranteed outcome. Proposed projects may be delayed, changed or canceled.
- Forecast vintages are not interchangeable: The 2024 LBNL projection to 2028 and the 2025 update use different forecasting vintages. Read each with its publication date, measure and horizon rather than treating them as successive observed totals.
- There is no single comparable continental total here: The cited U.S. and Canadian estimates use distinct scopes and methods. Adding them would imply comparability the underlying forecasts do not establish.
- Demand projections do not settle supply or emissions: The cited material does not establish one data-center-specific emissions figure for North America or show that all new demand will be met by a particular power source.
The practical answer
North America can serve a growing data-center fleet only by matching new load with enough generation, grid capacity and operational flexibility in the places and years they are needed. The forecasts show why that is an urgent planning task, especially in fast-growing U.S. grid regions and Canadian provinces identified by planners. They do not guarantee a uniform grid crisis—or a clean-power outcome. Both depend on which projects materialize and how quickly utilities, grid operators, governments and data-center operators coordinate the response.
In announcing DOE’s December 2024 report, then-U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm said, “We can meet this growth with clean energy.” That statement is advocacy framing from the announcement, not a guarantee that all forecast demand will be served by clean electricity.
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