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Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →SpaceX shares rose 7.35% on Friday, October 2, 2026, to $158.96, and were reported at $164.63, up 3.6%, on Monday morning, October 5. Benzinga attributed those snapshot prices to Benzinga Pro and reported that Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. Jonas’s “Cheap and Getting Cheaper” argument was about SpaceX’s estimated value relative to expected growth—not a claim that its headline valuation multiple was low. The target, valuation figures and catalysts below are Jonas’s estimates as relayed by Benzinga, not SpaceX guidance or independently audited forecasts.
Why did SpaceX stock rise?
The immediate news hook was Jonas’s bullish rating and $300 target in a Sunday note titled “Cheap and Getting Cheaper,” as reported by Benzinga on October 5, 2026. Benzinga said the stock had gained 7.35% on Friday, October 2, closing at $158.96, then was up 3.6% at $164.63 on Monday morning. Those are dated market snapshots, not live or current quotes.
Benzinga also disclosed that Morgan Stanley co-managed a SpaceX offering in the prior year and received investment-banking fees from the company. That relationship is relevant context for the bank’s rating and target; it does not, by itself, establish that the analysis is wrong.
What does “cheap and getting cheaper” mean?
It means comparatively inexpensive after adjusting an estimated valuation multiple for forecast growth. It does not mean SpaceX had a low headline multiple, nor does the phrase establish that the shares were undervalued in an absolute or intrinsic-value sense.
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Headline multiple versus growth-adjusted comparison
At a cited share price of about $159, Benzinga said Morgan Stanley estimated SpaceX at roughly 30 times forecast 2028 EV/EBIT, compared with about 16 times for a group of mega-cap AI companies. EV/EBIT compares enterprise value with earnings before interest and taxes; here the figures are estimates for 2028, not reported results.
Jonas reportedly adjusted that comparison for expected year-over-year growth. On that measure, SpaceX was estimated at 0.3 times, against a 0.5-times peer median—about 40% lower. Benzinga said the measure would be around 0.6 times at the $300 target, compared with 0.5 for Amazon, 0.7 for Alphabet and 0.8 for Meta. The peer figures and growth adjustment are analyst estimates: forecasts, peer selection and the chosen metric can materially affect the comparison.
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So the thesis is not “SpaceX costs less than the large technology companies.” It is that, in Jonas’s model, the company’s expected growth could justify its higher headline multiple. If growth, margins or execution fall short, the adjustment can look very different.
How does Morgan Stanley’s reported valuation case work?
Benzinga described two related but distinct parts of Jonas’s analysis. First, at a $159 share price, his model reportedly attributed about $127 per share to SpaceX’s existing space and connectivity operations, leaving roughly $32 per share as the market-implied value of AI. Second, the article reported these values in a sum-of-the-parts model:
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| Business or component | Reported value per share | Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise AI | $165 | After a 50% execution-risk discount, according to Jonas’s model as reported by Benzinga |
| Connectivity | $118 | Jonas’s model, as reported by Benzinga |
| External launch | $8 | Jonas’s model, as reported by Benzinga |
| X/Grok | $8 | Jonas’s model, as reported by Benzinga |
The listed sum-of-the-parts components total $299 per share, close to the reported $300 target. The $127 existing-business estimate and $32 market-implied AI value are a separate framing of the share price at about $159; they should not be combined with the component values as though they were the same calculation. The difference between about $32 of market-implied AI value and $165 in the discounted AI component is central to the bullish case: Jonas’s model sees substantial potential value not reflected in that implied figure. SpaceX has not disclosed these segment valuations; they are not company guidance.
Why compute pricing and deployment matter
The report highlighted AI compute as a highly sensitive assumption. Benzinga said Visible Alpha consensus assumed pricing of $17.60 per watt across 4.1 gigawatts. Jonas reportedly estimated that each additional $10 per watt could add more than $40 billion to consensus revenue, without changing deployed capacity—more than one-third of fiscal 2027 revenue, according to his calculation. He also estimated recent short-term neocloud contracts at $30–$50 per watt.
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These are not interchangeable observed prices or guaranteed revenue. The consensus assumption, Jonas’s higher contract estimate and the incremental-revenue calculation have different roles in the argument. The calculation depends on realizing higher pricing at the relevant scale and on the model’s other assumptions. As Benzinga relayed Jonas’s warning, compute deployment and pricing “can swing even next year’s revenue by potentially a multiple.” That fragment is secondhand reporting of his comment, not a quote from a publicly available Morgan Stanley note.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What catalysts and risks did the October report identify?
Potential catalysts cited by Jonas
- Starship Flight 15: In the October 5 report, it was expected in late October or early November. Jonas reportedly said a successful ship catch “could be the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO.” This was his forward-looking opinion, and the stated schedule may have changed since publication.
- Third-quarter earnings: Also expected in late October at the time, they could offer an early look at the economics of Cursor and Grok Bot, according to the report. That was a possible information catalyst, not a guarantee of positive results.
Downside scenario and wider uncertainties
Jonas reportedly said a test of $100 within the following 12 months would require a clear slowdown in AI progress, a severe Starship testing setback or material dilution. This is his stated downside scenario, not a price forecast and not an exhaustive list of ways the shares could fall. The valuation also depends on uncertain growth, customer pricing, deployment, execution and forecasts used in the peer comparison.
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What earlier trading and company disclosures add
August provides historical context, not an explanation for the October move. The Associated Press reported that more than 900 million shares became newly available after a lockup expiration and that SpaceX shares rose 6.1% to close at $114.92 on August 6, 2026. The same AP report said SpaceX recorded a $541 million loss on $7.8 billion in revenue for the three months through June, alongside sharply higher research-and-development and infrastructure spending. Those figures describe a different period and should not be conflated with October trading.
SpaceX’s June 4, 2026 IPO announcement said it had launched a roadshow for 555,555,555 Class A shares at an expected offering price of $135, with proposed Nasdaq ticker SPCX, and named Morgan Stanley among the book-running managers. The company directed investors to its prospectus and other SEC filings for full information and risks. The offering announcement establishes company-provided IPO context; it does not validate Jonas’s later estimates.
How to read the $300 target
The $300 figure was Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas’s price target as reported by Benzinga on October 5, 2026, alongside an Overweight rating. It is the output of an analyst model, not a promised trading price, SpaceX forecast or guarantee of return. The “cheap” label is meaningful only within that model’s growth assumptions and comparisons. This is market reporting, not a personalized investment recommendation.
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