BMO Capital Markets reiterated its Outperform rating on Sherwin-Williams and kept its $405 price target in a report dated September 28, 2026. That was a reaffirmation, not a new increase: BMO had raised its target from $400 to $405 on July 29. The target is an analyst estimate, not a promised share price; the available reports do not provide a contemporaneous share price for calculating potential upside.
What BMO changed—and what it did not
On July 29, 2026, BMO Capital Markets analyst John McNulty raised the reported target for Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW) from $400 to $405 and maintained an Outperform rating, according to TheFly’s report carried by TipRanks. The report described the move after the company delivered a second-quarter beat and raised guidance, and summarized BMO’s positive view of Sherwin-Williams’ performance in a soft macroeconomic and housing environment.
On September 28, Investing.com reported that BMO reiterated Outperform with the $405 target after attending Sherwin-Williams’ investor day. It cited continued realization of a September price increase and improving margins in Consumer Brands and Protective and Marine Coatings. The report describes the target as unchanged, not newly raised.
Sherwin-Williams lists BMO Capital Markets and John McNulty among analysts covering the company on its analyst-coverage page. The original BMO research note and valuation model are not available in the cited reports, so the rationale and target here should be understood as reported summaries, not a full account of BMO’s analysis.
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How the reported thesis compares with Sherwin-Williams’ results
The company’s second-quarter release reported consolidated net sales of $6.79 billion, up 7.5% year over year. Diluted EPS was $3.43, up 14.3%; adjusted diluted EPS was $3.70, up 9.5%. These are Sherwin-Williams’ reported results, not analyst estimates. Its full-year 2026 guidance was $10.92–$11.32 in diluted EPS and $11.80–$12.20 in adjusted diluted EPS; those ranges are forecasts, not results already achieved. See the July 28, 2026 earnings release.
The Paint Stores Group, a key part of the company’s business, recorded second-quarter sales growth of 5.1%, same-store sales growth of 4.2%, and segment-profit growth of 4.5%, according to the company’s segment results. For context, Sherwin-Williams’ 2025 Form 10-K reported full-year net sales of $23.574 billion, diluted EPS of $10.26, and adjusted diluted EPS of $11.43; those prior-year figures are not directly comparable to one quarter of 2026. The company’s annual reports page hosts the filing.
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Potential tailwinds and the risks the company disclosed
Pricing and margin improvement
The September report said BMO saw continued realization of a September price increase and margin improvement in Consumer Brands and Protective and Marine Coatings. Sherwin-Williams had announced an 8% Paint Stores Group price increase effective September 1, 2026, citing broad-based cost inflation. An announced increase is not evidence that all pricing has been realized or that margins will rise by a particular amount.
Demand and cost pressures
Sherwin-Williams said demand remained soft and that customer sentiment and leading indicators pointed to continued softness in the second half of 2026. The company also cited broad inflation in raw materials, energy, logistics, and packaging. In Paint Stores Group, it said sales gains reflected price increases and low-single-digit volume growth; higher raw-material costs and sales-support investments partly offset segment-profit growth. These are management’s descriptions in its second-quarter release, not independent forecasts.
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CEO Heidi G. Petz said the second-quarter results reflected the company’s “focus on the customer and the decisive actions our teams are taking to grow share, manage costs and respond to this dynamic environment.” That is management’s characterization of the results, not independent confirmation of the investment case.
What the $405 target can—and cannot—tell an investor
A price target is an analyst’s estimate, not a guarantee. Without a verified share price at a named time, the reported $405 target cannot be translated here into a reliable percentage upside. The reports also do not disclose BMO’s valuation assumptions, time horizon, or full risk analysis. Investors weighing the rating can compare the company’s published results and guidance with the demand and cost conditions management described, while recognizing that neither the rating nor company guidance ensures a particular outcome.
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Sherwin-Williams’ investor-relations calendar scheduled its third-quarter 2026 results for October 27, 2026, a date that was still in the future on October 7, 2026. The company also announced a September 24 financial-community presentation, but the available announcement does not establish additional detailed presentation content. Check the investor-relations calendar for the scheduled reporting date and subsequent company updates.
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