RSA helped make secure communication over untrusted networks practical, but a sufficiently capable quantum computer could undermine the mathematical problem on which RSA and other widely used public-key systems rely. The 50th anniversary of RSA’s development year is in 2027—not 2026—and the transition to post-quantum cryptography is already a planning issue for organizations that need data to remain secure for years.
Here, “RSA” means the cryptographic algorithm developed in 1977, not RSA Security, the company founded in 1982. The company’s history credits RSA public-key infrastructure with helping support SSL/TLS, e-commerce, secure email, and digital signatures. NIST has finalized three principal post-quantum standards and recommends beginning migration now.
What does RSA’s 50th anniversary mark?
RSA Security says Ron Rivest, Adi Shamir, and Leonard Adleman developed the RSA algorithm in 1977. That makes 2027 the 50th anniversary of its development year. It does not mean the algorithm first appeared online in 1977. The company, RSA Security, was founded in 1982; it also says the algorithm entered the public domain in 2000 and is now a public standard.
RSA is a public-key cryptographic algorithm: it uses a public/private key pair, and its security depends on the computational difficulty of factoring large integers. The algorithm and the company that shares its name are related historically, but they are not the same thing. RSA Security’s identity products, for example, are not the RSA algorithm and are not a prerequisite for post-quantum migration.
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Why could quantum computers threaten RSA?
A sufficiently capable quantum computer could use Shor’s algorithm to address the mathematical problems underlying RSA, Diffie-Hellman, and elliptic-curve cryptography. That is a future capability, not a description of what current quantum computers can do: the sources do not establish a dependable date when a quantum computer will be able to break deployed RSA.
The uncertainty about timing does not remove the need to plan. An attacker could collect encrypted information now and attempt to decrypt it later, if a capable quantum computer becomes available. This “harvest now, decrypt later” risk matters most for information that must remain confidential for a long time. Organizations may therefore need to begin changing systems well before the threat is realized.
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What is post-quantum cryptography?
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is cryptography designed to resist attacks from both conventional and quantum computers. It is intended to replace or supplement vulnerable public-key cryptography in systems such as key establishment and digital signatures. PQC is not a quantum computer, nor does adopting it mean an organization has to use quantum communications.
NIST’s initial standardization effort took eight years. Its initial submission deadline produced 69 candidate algorithms, according to the agency. In August 2024, NIST finalized three principal standards, making them available for implementation:
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| Standard | Standard number | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| ML-KEM | FIPS 203 | Key establishment |
| ML-DSA | FIPS 204 | Digital signatures |
| SLH-DSA | FIPS 205 | Stateless hash-based digital signatures |
These standards serve different functions; they are not interchangeable alternatives for one job. The sources cited here do not establish a quantitative performance comparison, so organizations should assess implementation and interoperability against their own systems rather than assume one standard is universally preferable.
When will quantum computers break RSA?
There is no dependable arrival date in the cited sources for a quantum computer capable of breaking deployed RSA. NIST’s recommendation to start migration now is a risk-management and transition-planning position, not a prediction that RSA will fail by a particular year.
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NIST says quantum-vulnerable algorithms will be deprecated and ultimately removed from its standards by 2035, with high-risk systems moving earlier. This is NIST’s transition timeline for its standards, not a universal legal deadline applying to every organization. NIST’s November 12, 2024, initial public draft, IR 8547, describes a proposed transition approach; it is a draft, not a final standard.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How should organizations prepare for post-quantum cryptography?
NIST recommends starting migration now, beginning with an inventory of where vulnerable cryptography is used and planning the changes needed across systems, products, services, and protocols. NIST mathematician Dustin Moody, who leads the PQC standardization project, said: “We encourage organizations to begin their transition to these standards immediately to ensure their data remains secure in the quantum era.”
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- Build a cryptographic inventory. Identify where RSA, Diffie-Hellman, elliptic-curve cryptography, and other quantum-vulnerable algorithms are used. Include applications, infrastructure, certificates, protocols, products, and services rather than limiting the review to software teams’ direct code.
- Prioritize by confidentiality lifetime and risk. Find information that would still be sensitive if decrypted years from now, and identify high-risk systems that may need to move earlier under NIST’s transition approach.
- Map dependencies and constraints. Record which vendors, devices, certificates, and protocols are involved. Pay particular attention to constrained devices and systems where updates or replacements are difficult.
- Coordinate with suppliers. Ask vendors how and when their products and services will support the NIST standards, and how updates will work across dependent systems. Plan for interoperability rather than treating each cryptographic component as an isolated replacement.
- Plan, test, and stage the transition. Set out the system, product, service, and protocol changes required; test updates with connected systems before broad deployment. NIST’s migration work focuses on finding and prioritizing vulnerable systems and supporting interoperable solutions.
The sources reviewed here do not establish a reliable current percentage for how much of the public internet has migrated to PQC. An organization should therefore base its schedule on its own inventory, risk, vendor readiness, and interoperability needs rather than assume that broad internet adoption has already solved the problem.
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