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Coal still supplies about a third of the world’s electricity because power systems are built around it, demand keeps rising, and in several large economies it competes directly with natural gas or is valued as a domestically produced fuel. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), coal supplied 34% of global electricity generation in 2025. That share is substantial, but it is not uniform: coal’s role varies sharply by country, and the same year saw coal-fired output fall in some major markets and rise in others.
The numbers behind coal’s place in the power mix
The figures below come from the IEA’s 2025 and 2026 reports. The 2025 values are reported actuals; the 2030 value is a forecast.
| Measure | Value | Period and type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal share of global electricity generation | 34% | 2025, reported | IEA, Global Energy Review 2026 |
| Renewables share of global electricity generation | 34% | 2025, reported | IEA, Global Energy Review 2026 |
| Low-emissions share (renewables plus nuclear) | 43% | 2025, reported | IEA, Global Energy Review 2026 |
| Change in global coal-fired generation | About -0.5% | 2025, reported; first decline outside crisis-related disruption since 2015 | IEA, Global Energy Review 2026 |
| Change in global coal demand | +0.4% | 2025, reported; demand is a broader measure than power generation | IEA, Global Energy Review 2026, coal chapter |
| Share of global coal consumption used for power generation | About two-thirds | Reported in IEA Coal 2025 | IEA, Coal 2025 |
| Coal share of electricity mix, 2030 | 27%, down from 35% in 2024 | Forecast from Coal 2025 (published 17 December 2025) | IEA, Coal 2025 |
Two points in that table are easy to confuse. Coal’s share of electricity is a generation measure, while coal’s share of consumption is a fuel-use measure, and coal use in the power sector is not the same as total coal use. Likewise, a fall in coal-fired generation and a rise in total coal demand can both be true in the same year, because demand also reflects industrial use and changes in stockpiling and trade.
Why reliance continues
No single cause explains coal’s continued role. The IEA’s analysis points to a set of drivers that act differently in each country, and the strongest effects come when several of them coincide.
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Coal is already built into the system
Coal is a cornerstone of electricity generation in many countries. Plants, mines, rail links, and grid arrangements built over decades do not disappear when a new source is added. The IEA describes coal as a cornerstone of generation in many countries, and two-thirds of coal consumption is tied to power. Where demand is growing, existing coal plants can keep running even while solar, wind, and other sources expand, because total demand is larger than what the newer sources can meet in every hour.
Demand growth
Electricity demand is the most direct driver. When demand climbs faster than the supply that other sources can provide, coal generation can rise or hold steady. The IEA links strong electricity-demand growth to the coal trends it reports in the United States in 2025, and to the new capacity China commissioned in the same year.
Competition with natural gas and fuel prices
In certain power markets, coal is the main alternative to natural gas. When gas prices rise, coal becomes more attractive in the dispatch order, meaning the plants that operators call on to meet demand. The IEA’s September 2026 mid-year update identifies higher gas prices as one factor supporting coal demand in the 2026 market context. This effect is market-specific: where gas is cheap or plentiful, coal often has less room to compete.
Energy security and domestic supply
Some governments and industries value domestically produced coal because it reduces exposure to imported fuel and to gas-market swings. The IEA’s September 2026 update reports that some countries and industries are reassessing their energy strategies and turning to domestic coal for this reason. The update describes selected markets and circumstances, not a global shift in which every country is moving the same way.
Weather and variable output
Annual coal generation is sensitive to weather. Hydropower depends on rainfall, wind depends on wind speeds, and both affect how much coal must run. In 2025, India’s strong early monsoon increased hydropower and also reduced demand for cooling and agricultural pumping, which lowered coal use. In parts of Europe, weaker wind and hydropower output contributed to coal-fired generation during the year. Because these effects are weather-driven, they can shift a single year’s figures without changing the longer trend.
Policy and plant retirements
Government policy can keep coal plants online. The IEA reports that federal support in the United States helped slow plant retirements, which contributed to the rise in coal use there in 2025. In China, new coal plants commissioned in 2025 were described by the IEA as intended primarily to meet peak demand and to support energy security. Plant retirements, construction, and dispatch rules therefore matter as much as fuel prices.
Industrial coal use
Coal is not used only for electricity. Steel, cement, chemicals, and other industries also consume coal, so changes in those sectors affect total coal demand even when the story is about power. Readers comparing a country’s coal consumption with its electricity figures should check which measure a source is reporting.
Regional picture for 2025
The global share hides wide differences. The table sets out what the IEA reports for selected regions in 2025 and how to read each result.
| Region | What the IEA reports for 2025 | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| China | Coal-fired generation fell about 1.5%. Rapid solar and wind growth, higher hydropower, and nuclear output met strong demand growth. Nearly 80 GW of coal plants were commissioned, which the IEA links to peak demand and energy security. | Coal use can coexist with fast clean-energy growth and continued plant construction. Newly commissioned capacity is not the same as electricity generated, since plants may run only at peak times. |
| India | Coal-fired generation fell about 3%. An early, intense monsoon raised hydropower output and reduced some electricity demand, while wind and solar kept growing. | Weather can change a single year’s coal output. One unusual monsoon season does not establish a permanent trend. |
| United States | Coal demand rose 10%. The electricity sector accounts for almost 90% of US coal use. The IEA cites strong electricity demand, higher gas prices, and federal policy support for slowing plant retirements. | Coal use can rebound after a longer decline when market and policy conditions change. |
| European Union | Coal demand fell 5%, a slower decline than in 2023 and 2024. Weak wind and hydropower output supported coal-fired generation in parts of the year. The IEA says EU coal use halved over the previous decade, amid plant closures, renewables growth, and high carbon prices. | A weather-driven slowdown in the decline does not reverse the longer structural trend. |
| Southeast Asia | Coal supplied 48% of electricity in 2025, close to its 2024 share and above 37% a decade earlier. | Regional pathways differ, so the EU or US experience should not be assumed to apply here. |
The sources are IEA, Global Energy Review 2026, coal chapter for the China, India, United States, and EU rows, and IEA, Global Energy Review 2026, electricity supply chapter for Southeast Asia. Country comparisons should hold six things constant: coal’s share of generation, the direction of demand and generation, the availability of competing sources (gas, renewables, hydropower, and nuclear), electricity-demand growth and peak needs, domestic versus imported fuel, and policy on retirements, construction, and dispatch.
What the outlook says, and what it does not
The IEA’s Coal 2025 report, published 17 December 2025, forecasts that coal will fall to 27% of the global electricity mix in 2030, down from 35% in 2024. That is a forecast of declining share, not a projection that coal will disappear from power systems by then.
The IEA’s Coal Mid-Year Update 2026, published 10 September 2026, describes market conditions that have changed since the December forecast, including higher gas prices and domestic-supply decisions that can raise near-term coal demand. Readers should treat the 2030 figure as one projection that current market conditions may revise, not as settled.
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Environmental cost
The IEA describes coal as the single largest source of carbon dioxide emissions globally. Its Coal 2025 report states: “Coal is a cornerstone of electricity generation in many countries as well as the single largest source of carbon dioxide emissions globally.” The statement is the IEA’s institutional position in its report page, not a quotation from a named individual. The climate impact is therefore a central part of why the decline in coal’s share matters, even where coal remains important to supply security.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Limits of this explanation
This explanation rests on IEA global market analysis. The IEA reports above do not provide a comparison of cost per megawatt-hour or emissions per kilowatt-hour across power sources, so this article does not claim that coal is always the cheapest, most reliable, or most polluting source per unit of electricity. Claims about local reliability, health effects, or lifecycle emissions need topic-specific primary sources, which should be consulted before those questions are answered.
Where the IEA states a figure as an estimate or forecast, this article keeps that distinction. Coal’s 2025 values are reported figures, while the 2030 share is a forecast.
The IEA’s electricity-supply and coal chapters of the Global Energy Review 2026 remain the best starting points for the current numbers, and the Coal 2025 report is the reference for the longer outlook.
Coal continues to supply about a third of the world’s electricity because it is embedded in existing systems, because demand is still growing in many places, because gas prices and domestic-supply choices can make it the practical option in specific markets, and because weather and policy can shift its output from year to year. Its long-term share is falling, but the pace depends on which of those drivers dominates in each country.
This explanation is current as of the IEA reports cited, and the 2026 market situation may continue to change.
Within the table above, China’s commissioning figure refers to nearly 80 GW of plants commissioned, not to electricity they produced.
Read together, these points explain why coal’s global share can fall while its use remains large in several countries.
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsCoal’s future depends on the combination of demand growth, gas prices, domestic supply decisions, and policy, and those factors differ by country.
Coal’s position will therefore be decided country by country.
In short, coal persists because of the systems and markets around it, not because it is universally preferred.
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