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Smartphone prices are rising in 2026 chiefly because memory components have become much more expensive and harder for phone makers to source. The pressure is not uniform: entry-level phones have less room to absorb higher costs, and forecasts use different measures, so no single percentage describes every phone or market. For buyers, that may mean fewer low-cost choices, a longer wait between upgrades, or a closer look at refurbished devices.
Why are phones getting more expensive in 2026?
Memory is the clearest documented cost pressure
Phones rely on DRAM for working memory and NAND for storage. Gartner linked its February 2026 forecast for higher smartphone prices to soaring memory costs. In its August 26 update, IDC reported that NAND and DRAM costs were up more than 300% year over year, leaving manufacturers with fewer ways to absorb the increases. That figure describes component costs, not the amount consumers pay for a phone. Gartner’s February forecast and IDC’s August forecast both identify memory as a central pressure.
IDC connects the squeeze to demand for components from AI-related businesses. That helps explain why memory is under pressure, but the available figures do not quantify how much of a handset’s price increase is specifically attributable to AI. It is more accurate to describe AI as part of the demand backdrop than to assign it a precise share of the price rise.
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Different forecasts measure different things
Several widely reported 2026 estimates are not direct substitutes for one another. They were issued at different times and refer to different price measures.
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| Source and date | Reported estimate | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Smartphone prices 13% higher in 2026 than in 2025 | A forecast of smartphone price increases; it is not a final measurement or a model-by-model change. |
| IDC, August 26, 2026 | Global average selling price (ASP) of $581, up 27.6% year over year | A forecast for the average price across phones sold, affected by the mix of models purchased. It does not mean each phone’s sticker price rises 27.6%. |
| Counterpoint Research, September 3, 2026 | Existing global smartphone retail prices up about 15% on average so far in 2026; new launches about 25% costlier year over year | Counterpoint’s headline measures for existing retail prices and newly launched phones; these are not the same as IDC’s ASP. |
Read each estimate with its publisher, date, and measure attached. The figures describe a global market picture, not a guaranteed change to the price of a particular phone in a particular country. Local taxes, currency movements, carrier subsidies, retailer promotions, and stock can change what a buyer actually pays.
Why are cheaper phones more exposed?
Budget phones are more vulnerable because their prices leave manufacturers less margin to absorb higher component costs. Gartner said basic smartphones would bear a disproportionate effect. IDC’s August forecast likewise identified the mass market, particularly in emerging markets, as more exposed.
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That pressure does not always show up as a simple sticker-price increase. IDC’s Q2 2026 market update described vendors using older models or 4G variants to protect some lower price bands, as well as a widening divide between premium and low-end players. The result can be fewer new low-cost choices, older specifications at a familiar price, or a change in the mix of phones available. IDC reported that worldwide shipments fell 7.4% year over year to 276.3 million units in Q2 2026; this is a historical quarterly figure, not a full-year forecast. IDC’s Q2 market update discusses those portfolio shifts.
How can average prices rise while phone sales fall?
An average selling price is calculated across the phones sold, so it changes both when individual prices change and when buyers shift toward different kinds of phones. If fewer budget devices sell while premium models make up a larger share, the average can rise even if some individual models hold their prices.
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IDC’s August 2026 forecast illustrates how those measures can move in opposite directions: it projected worldwide smartphone shipments down 16.7% for the year, while the global ASP rose 27.6% to $581 and total market value grew 6.3% to $613 billion. These are IDC forecasts, not final results. Falling unit shipments alongside rising ASP and market value do not establish that every handset became more expensive by the ASP percentage. IDC’s August forecast contains the estimates.
Forecasts also changed as the year progressed. Gartner’s February estimate was an 8.4% decline in 2026 shipments; IDC’s later August forecast was a 16.7% decline. These are separate forecasts from different publishers and dates, not conflicting measurements of completed sales.
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Will smartphone prices keep rising?
There is evidence of continued pressure, but not a guaranteed price path for every phone. IDC’s August 26, 2026 update said average selling prices were up 27.6% for the year and quoted its Vice President for Worldwide Client Devices, Francisco Jeronimo, saying they would “keep rising well into 2027.” That is an analyst forecast, not a commitment by manufacturers or a prediction for every market or model.
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What should buyers do?
Keep a working phone longer if the upgrade can wait
Holding onto a functional phone can avoid buying into a period of higher prices. Check that it still receives operating-system and security updates, that its battery lasts through your day, and that it meets your storage and network needs. If the phone no longer receives security updates or cannot reliably handle essential tasks, the cost of waiting may outweigh the savings.
Gartner identified longer ownership as one likely response to pressure on entry-level prices. Its Senior Director Analyst, Ranjit Atwal, said higher prices could narrow device choice and prompt buyers to keep devices longer, changing upgrade cycles.
Compare the full cost of a new or refurbished phone
A refurbished or second-hand phone may be worth considering, but a lower asking price alone does not establish better value. Compare the actual total cost today with the time you expect to keep the device, and check the condition and terms for that specific listing.
- Software and security support: Find the end date or remaining support period for the exact model and region.
- Battery: Check battery health, whether its condition is guaranteed, and the likely replacement cost.
- Seller protection: Read the grading standard, warranty coverage, and return window.
- Configuration and compatibility: Confirm RAM, storage, and compatibility with your carrier’s network bands and services.
- Total payment: For a financed purchase, compare the full repayment amount and terms, not only the monthly installment.
Market-level reports do not establish the condition, support life, or value of any particular refurbished model. Verify those details with the seller and the phone’s manufacturer information.
Check the local deal rather than relying on a global average
Compare the same model and configuration across sellers, including taxes, trade-in conditions, carrier-plan requirements, and any time-limited promotion. A global forecast cannot tell you whether a specific local offer is good value or whether a particular model has risen in price.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.

