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Eni’s bet is that exploration opportunities, long-term operating relationships and the ability to connect oil and gas production with trading and power can justify exposure to politically risky countries. That is the company’s strategic rationale—not proof that its investments in those countries earn superior risk-adjusted returns. And the available evidence does not show that other oil companies avoid them all.
What Eni is betting on
Eni describes exploration and production as a cornerstone of its business. Its 2026–2030 strategic plan presents exploration-led growth and a geographically and geologically diverse portfolio as advantages. The logic is to pursue resources across different places and geological settings rather than depend on a single area or type of opportunity.
Eni says it has discovered more than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) since 2014, including around 900 million boe in 2025. It expects an average reserve-replacement ratio above 140% across 2026–2030. The discoveries are company-reported; the reserve-replacement figure is a forward-looking company expectation, not a result already achieved. Neither figure establishes what Eni earns from any particular country.
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From finding resources to capturing value
The company’s plan describes a model that combines exploration with gas, trading and power. In principle, linking production to other parts of the energy business can give a company more ways to capture value than selling crude at the wellhead alone. Eni also says it sometimes seeks to realize value from discoveries early, and that financial discipline helps it align capital with different risk-and-reward profiles. These are elements of its stated strategy; the available disclosures do not quantify how much they offset political risk country by country.
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That strategy is not simply “take more risk.” Exploration can create potential resource value, but it also costs money before a discovery is certain. Partnerships and early realization may limit how much capital Eni must commit to some opportunities. Diversification may spread exposure across projects, but it cannot remove the risk that a government, conflict or sanctions disrupts a particular operation.
How large is Eni’s exposure?
In its 2025 annual report, Eni said about 84% of its proved hydrocarbon reserves were in non-OECD countries at December 31, 2025. The company cautions that some operating environments may be less stable. It identifies Libya, Venezuela and Egypt among the areas where it is particularly exposed to political risk.
That reserve figure describes where Eni reports proved reserves, not how much production, profit or investment comes from each country. It also does not mean that all non-OECD countries present the same level or kind of risk.
Libya: a long operating presence amid uncertainty
Eni says it has operated in Libya since 1959. It conducts operations through Mellitah Oil and Gas B.V., a joint company equally owned with Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC). The arrangement gives Eni an established local operating relationship, but it does not make the country’s political conditions predictable.
Eni’s 2025 annual report put Libya production at 162,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d), approximately 10% of the group’s production. The report said continuity in Eni’s activity areas supported production and development while geopolitical risk persisted. In a May 2025 announcement, the company had reported average equity production of 176,000 boe/d for 2024. These are figures for different reporting periods, not competing estimates of the same year.
In that May 2025 announcement, Eni described three projects sanctioned in 2023: Sabratha Compression, Bouri Gas Utilization and Bahr Essalam Structures A&E. It said drilling for the last had begun in April 2025 and forecast Bouri start-up in 2026. Those were the project status and schedule as reported at the time; the announcement does not establish whether the forecast was subsequently met. Eni also discussed further exploration and the potential of a bid round.
Libya illustrates the trade-off in Eni’s approach: maintaining projects and production where an established presence exists, while accepting exposure to political uncertainty. Eni’s disclosures support the claim that operations continued; they do not show that Libya is a low-risk investment.
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Venezuela: operating opportunity does not erase payment and sanctions risk
Eni’s first-half 2026 filing described operating conditions in Venezuela as gradually improving after political relations with the United States were restored and crude-export bans were lifted. The company said it had obtained general licenses allowing investment activity and oil marketing, but was not authorized at that time to carry out debt swaps. These statements describe the filing’s snapshot and should not be read as a guarantee that license terms or conditions remain unchanged.
The same filing reported nominal credit exposure to Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA of $2.7 billion, with an impairment provision of about 55%. This shows why access to operations and markets is only part of the risk: a company may still face substantial uncertainty over whether counterparties will pay and how much of a receivable it can recover. The filing is not legal advice on the scope of any license.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why stay when the political and financial risks are high?
The clearest answer in Eni’s disclosures is that it views exploration and production as strategically central and sees a diversified, exploration-led portfolio as a way to pursue resources while linking them to other businesses. Existing operations, projects and relationships can also provide a basis for continued activity where political conditions are difficult. That is a plausible explanation for persistence, not evidence that each investment is profitable or that its returns compensate for its risks.
Eni’s own risk disclosures name unstable political, institutional, social and legal frameworks; conflict and disruption; weak public finances or state counterparties; difficulty obtaining suppliers; sanctions; and authorization delays. Those risks can affect different parties in different ways: the company may face interrupted production or unpaid receivables, while partners, suppliers and host governments can face their own operational or financial consequences.
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Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →For context, Eni reported full-year 2025 production of 1.73 million boe/d, underlying growth of 4% compared with 2024, and an organic reserve-replacement ratio of 167%. Those group-wide figures describe overall company performance; they do not demonstrate that high-risk-country exposure caused the results or reveal the risk-adjusted returns of individual projects.
What the “everyone else avoids” framing gets wrong
Eni’s reports establish that it has substantial non-OECD reserves and identifies specific countries as politically risky. They do not establish that other oil majors avoid those countries: that claim would require comparable evidence on peers’ reserves, operations, project commitments and risk disclosures. Nor do Eni’s company-wide reserve or production statistics show whether a particular country-level investment has paid off after accounting for risk.
The defensible conclusion is narrower: Eni continues to pursue exploration and maintain operations in places where it acknowledges political, legal, sanctions or counterparty risks. Its stated rationale is portfolio diversity, resource opportunities and integration across businesses. Whether that strategy produces attractive returns in any one country cannot be determined from the disclosures cited here.
Quick Recap
Sources
- Eni Strategic Plan 2026–2030
- Eni Annual Report 2025
- Eni Libya announcement, May 5, 2025
- Eni FY 2025 results, February 26, 2026
- Eni first-half 2026 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
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