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Arm is likely to gain CPU share in selected markets—not replace x86 everywhere. The clearest growth areas are cloud providers’ custom processors, AI-oriented server systems and some consumer laptops. There is no reliable single forecast for “the CPU industry,” because PC, server, smartphone and embedded markets use different measures and have different buyers.
Why there is no single future CPU market-share number
“CPU market share” can mean unit shipments, revenue, installed processors or shipments of complete systems. Those measures produce different results. A server CPU forecast cannot be combined with a laptop shipment forecast, and neither describes smartphone architecture share. AMD’s fiscal 2025 filing, for example, discusses competition from customer-developed data-center microprocessors rather than offering one forecast for every CPU segment: AMD 2025 Form 10-K.
| Market slice | Useful measure | What can be concluded |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer and business PCs | PC shipments, separated from AI-PC shipments | AI-PC growth does not equal Arm share of all PCs. |
| General-purpose servers | Server CPU or system shipments | Arm is gaining through cloud-custom designs, while x86 remains a major competitor. |
| AI ASIC servers | Arm CPU share within that specific server category | A high forecast for this niche cannot be applied to all servers. |
| Mobile and embedded devices | Architecture or processor shipments by device class | The available forecasts here do not establish a new, comparable percentage. |
The most defensible overall outlook is a more diverse architecture mix: Arm expands in particular workloads while Intel and AMD continue competing in x86 and cloud providers increasingly build custom silicon.
PCs: AI-capable shipments will grow, but that is not an Arm forecast
What Gartner actually forecasts
Gartner’s worldwide forecast, published 29 July 2025, projects AI PCs rising from 16% of PC shipments in 2024 to 96% by 2029. That percentage is the share of shipments classified as AI PCs, not Arm’s share of all PC shipments. Gartner states: “Shipments share is set to jump from 16% in 2024 to 96% by 2029, driven by x86 in the business segment, while Windows on Arm AI laptops will mostly sell to consumers.” Read the full scope in Gartner’s Forecast Analysis: AI PCs by Arm and x86, Worldwide.
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What this means for Arm
Arm can benefit from consumer laptops where battery life, thin designs and integrated neural-processing features matter. However, Gartner expects x86 to drive business AI-PC adoption, so the rapid expansion of the AI-PC category should not be presented as a near-term takeover of corporate PCs by Windows on Arm.
Servers: the strongest near-term opening for Arm
Custom cloud CPUs and integrated AI racks
TrendForce’s June 2026 server analysis says Arm server CPU share passed 20% for the first time. It attributes the change to cloud providers’ custom CPUs and Nvidia Grace and Vera AI rack systems. This is a server-CPU share statement, not a share of every processor shipped across PCs, phones and servers. The same analysis notes that Intel Xeon and AMD EPYC also benefit from the expansion of AI infrastructure: TrendForce server analysis.
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Cloud operators have a strong reason to design or commission their own Arm processors: they can tune the CPU for their software stack, power budget and accelerator configuration instead of buying an identical general-purpose part for every workload. That changes the competitive contest from “which merchant CPU is fastest?” to “which combination of CPU, accelerator, memory and software delivers the lowest total cost?”
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Why x86 will remain significant
Enterprise software compatibility, migration risk, existing management tools and the installed base all favor x86. Intel and AMD are also selling into the same AI-led server buildout, and their products remain relevant for general-purpose workloads and systems that need broad compatibility. Arm’s gains therefore indicate segment expansion, not the disappearance of x86.
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AI ASIC servers: a large Arm forecast with a narrow denominator
Counterpoint Research forecast in April 2026 that Arm-based CPUs could reach 90% of the AI ASIC server CPU market by 2029: Counterpoint’s forecast. The denominator is specifically CPUs used in AI ASIC servers. It excludes ordinary servers, all AI servers, PCs, smartphones and the wider CPU market.
AI ASIC systems often pair a specialized accelerator with a CPU responsible for orchestration, input and output handling, networking and pre- or post-processing. Arm’s licensing model and ability to customize cores make it well suited to those integrated designs. The forecast is important evidence of Arm’s position in one fast-growing niche, but it should not be quoted as “Arm will own 90% of server CPUs.”
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AI-server growth can lift every architecture
TrendForce’s 20 January 2026 outlook projected 12.8% growth in global server shipments and more than 28% growth in AI-server shipments during 2026. It also forecast ASIC-based systems at 27.8% of AI-server shipments. These are forecasts, not completed full-year results: TrendForce’s January 2026 server outlook.
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Arm’s own growth targets are not market-share measurements
Arm’s FYE 2026 investor presentation forecasts approximately 12% CAGR for CPU-related revenue through 2030 and 20% CAGR for royalty revenue from FYE26 to FYE31. The CPU-related estimate is Arm’s internal forecast informed by third-party analyst data, not an independent unit-share projection: Arm’s FYE 2026 investor presentation.
Revenue growth can come from higher royalties, richer designs, more chips per system or changes in product mix. It is therefore not interchangeable with the percentage of CPUs shipped. Use these figures to understand Arm’s expectations and business strategy, not as a neutral forecast of industry units.
What the future architecture mix most likely looks like
| Segment | Likely direction | Evidence and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Business PCs | x86 remains the principal architecture | Gartner’s AI-PC forecast says x86 drives business adoption through 2029. |
| Consumer AI laptops | More architectural competition, including Arm | Gartner expects Windows on Arm AI laptops to sell mostly to consumers. |
| Cloud and hyperscale servers | Arm share continues rising | Custom cloud CPUs are a key driver; TrendForce reported server Arm share above 20% in June 2026. |
| AI ASIC server CPUs | Arm could become dominant in this niche | Counterpoint’s 90% 2029 forecast applies only to AI ASIC server CPUs. |
| General-purpose enterprise servers | Mixed market, with durable x86 demand | Intel Xeon and AMD EPYC also benefit from AI infrastructure investment. |
| Mobile and embedded | Important but not quantified by these forecasts | No new comparable architecture-share forecast is established here. |
How to evaluate the next CPU market-share forecast
- Identify the segment: PC, smartphone, general-purpose server, AI server or AI ASIC server.
- Check the denominator: Confirm whether the figure covers CPUs, complete systems, AI-capable devices or a subcategory.
- Check the measure: Separate unit share, shipment share, revenue share and installed base.
- Check the date and horizon: A 2026 forecast is not a reported result, and a 2029 niche forecast is not a perpetual industry estimate.
- Separate company targets from independent analysis: Vendor revenue and royalty projections describe strategy, not neutral market share.
Bottom line
Arm is positioned to take meaningful share from x86 in cloud-custom processors, AI-focused server systems and selected consumer laptops. The shift will be uneven: x86 remains deeply entrenched in business PCs and many enterprise servers, while Arm’s strongest claims are concentrated in workloads designed around power efficiency, customization and AI accelerators. Expect a more fragmented CPU market—not one architecture replacing all others.
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