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The ADP National Employment Report estimates monthly changes in U.S. private-sector payroll employment using aggregated ADP payroll data. It can show where private payrolls are growing or shrinking, but it is not the government jobs report, does not cover every part of the labor market, and is not designed to predict the next Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimate.
What the ADP Employment Report measures
ADP describes its National Employment Report (NER) as a monthly measure of changes in U.S. private employment. Its underlying, anonymized and aggregated payroll dataset covers more than 26 million U.S. employees, according to ADP Research Institute. That is the stated scale of ADP’s dataset, not the number of U.S. workers represented in the labor force.
The report’s unit is jobs—employee-employer relationships—not unique people. Someone holding more than one job can therefore be counted more than once, a caveat that also applies to the BLS payroll series. ADP’s technical notes and calendar explain that its employment reference period is the week that includes the 12th day of the month.
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Because the measure is limited to private-sector payroll employment, it does not count government payrolls or measure unemployment, labor-force participation, underemployment, hours worked, or household financial well-being. Those are different questions and require other data.
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How ADP builds its estimate
ADP builds the NER from payroll records rather than a conventional employer survey. It aggregates payroll-account counts, which it treats approximately as business establishments, and distinguishes workers attached to a company payroll from workers paid during a particular period.
For weekly employment growth, ADP compares establishments appearing in consecutive weeks, then weights the estimates by industry, state, and establishment size using employment distributions from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). The process produces an employment index intended to offer more timely information than QCEW’s near-universe count, which is released with a lag. This is a description of ADP’s method, not an independent finding that the estimate is more accurate than other measures.
Reference weeks, seasonal adjustment, and revisions
The monthly employment figure uses the week that includes the 12th. ADP’s related Pay Insights measure uses pay data across the month, so the two products do not have identical reference periods. Payroll schedules and the arrival of client data affect when information becomes available.
ADP estimates seasonal patterns from historical weekly payroll data beginning in 2010. Its method accounts for calendar years with 52 or 53 weeks and shifts in week alignment. ADP publishes both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted series; comparisons should use the same adjustment convention and matching periods.
ADP payroll records update continuously. When late client information for an earlier month arrives, ADP may incorporate it and revise that month’s estimate. A published monthly figure is therefore an estimate that can change, not a permanent final count.
How ADP differs from the BLS jobs report
Both releases describe jobs, but they are separate statistical products with different sources and coverage. ADP explicitly says its current NER is not intended to forecast the BLS monthly jobs report. A difference between their estimates does not, by itself, show that either one is wrong or establish which is more accurate.
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| Comparison | ADP National Employment Report | BLS monthly payroll report |
|---|---|---|
| Primary source | Aggregated ADP payroll data, as described in ADP’s report materials. | Current Employment Statistics employer survey, as described by ADP when discussing its prior forecast model; see ADP’s technical notes. |
| Coverage | U.S. private-sector employment. | Nonfarm payroll employment, including private and government jobs. |
| Reference period and frequency | Weekly data feed into a monthly release; the employment reference week includes the 12th day of the month. | Monthly payroll estimate for the week including the 12th, per ADP’s technical notes. |
| Purpose | An independent, timely view of private employment—not a forecast of the BLS result. | Official government employment statistics release. |
| Counting unit | Jobs, or employee-employer relationships; a person with multiple jobs can be counted more than once. | Jobs, or employee-employer relationships; a person with multiple jobs can be counted more than once. |
| Revisions | ADP may revise a prior estimate when late client information arrives. | Separate statistical program and revision process; see ADP’s technical notes for the distinction in method. |
These differences make the reports complementary rather than interchangeable. A private-sector estimate should not be relabeled as a total nonfarm payroll result, and the ADP headline should not be treated as a preview that settles what the BLS will report.
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What the report can tell you
- Direction and estimated scale: whether private payroll employment rose or fell during the report’s defined reference period, and by how much ADP estimates it changed.
- Where changes are concentrated: ADP’s breakdowns can show differences across reported industries, establishment sizes, and regions.
- A timely payroll-based signal: the NER can add another perspective alongside measures built from surveys or released on different schedules.
- Related pay detail: ADP Pay Insights offers separate employment and pay information, with its own definitions and reference period.
For example, ADP estimated that private employers added 90,000 jobs in September 2026. Its release reported gains of 55,000 in education and health services and 22,000 in leisure and hospitality, while financial activities fell by 16,000 and professional and business services by 11,000. These are ADP’s estimates for that month, not BLS total nonfarm payroll figures. ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson called the release “a strong report” and said job creation rebounded after a three-month slowdown while pay growth remained solid; that is her assessment accompanying the release, not a neutral finding or independent forecast. See the September 2026 ADP release.
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What the report cannot tell you on its own
- Whether the whole labor market is strong: one private-payroll estimate does not capture government employment, unemployment, participation, hours, or other dimensions of work.
- Why employment changed: a gain or loss does not explain its cause.
- What BLS will report: ADP says the NER is not intended to forecast the BLS monthly jobs report. The available figures do not establish that ADP’s changes predict the BLS result’s direction or size.
- A final, unrevisable count: late-arriving payroll information can alter a prior estimate.
For historical context only, ADP reported 122,000 private jobs added in May 2026 and annual pay growth of 4.4 percent year over year for that release. Those figures describe May 2026, not the current month and not a BLS result. See the May 2026 ADP release.
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How to read an ADP headline responsibly
- Check the month and reference period. The employment estimate corresponds to the week including the 12th, rather than every day of the month.
- Identify the series. Note whether the figure is seasonally adjusted or not, and compare it with data using the same convention.
- Keep its scope in view. Describe it as a private-sector payroll estimate, not total U.S. employment or a measure of unemployment.
- Use the breakdowns for context. Industry, establishment-size, and regional figures can show where the change occurred, but do not establish why.
- Read it alongside other evidence. Treat ADP as one independent signal and consult the BLS Employment Situation and other labor-market measures for questions outside ADP’s coverage.
- Allow for revisions. ADP may update earlier estimates as more client information arrives.
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