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The poll figures available do not show that a majority expects supermarket changes to cut grocery prices soon: in a Verian poll, 32% thought proposed policies would lower prices within three years, 54% said they would not, and 14% did not know or preferred not to say. A separate Talbot Mills survey—commissioned by a cooperative and leaked to Stuff—is the poll specifically described as leaked, but the available reporting does not give its headline results. The two surveys should not be confused.
What the polls say—and what they don’t
Bryce Edwards’s October 3, 2026 analysis reported the Verian results: 32% expected proposed supermarket policies to lead to lower grocery prices within three years, 54% did not, and 14% did not know or preferred not to say. These are expectations about possible effects, not evidence that a policy will—or will not—change prices.
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The separate Talbot Mills survey was commissioned by a cooperative and its headline results were leaked to Stuff. As reported by Edwards, it surveyed 1,325 people from September 16 to 21, 2026. The available account does not state its results, exact question wording, weighting, or full methodology. It is therefore not possible to say from that account whether respondents supported a supermarket split or expected it to lower prices. Bryce Edwards’s analysis
“Splitting supermarkets” can mean different things
The phrase covers distinct proposals. One would reorganise Foodstuffs’ supermarket chains; another would separate retail from wholesale supply; a third would create a publicly owned grocery competitor. They target different parts of the market, so their likely effects cannot be treated as interchangeable.
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Separate Foodstuffs’ supermarket brands
Foodstuffs operates Pak’nSave, New World and Four Square. The Spinoff describes a structure in which stores are individually owned while branding, promotions, wholesale purchasing and distribution are centralised. A proposal to split Foodstuffs into nationwide chains organised around its brands would separate Pak’nSave from New World and Four Square. The relevant question is which shared commercial functions would change—not just whether the store names remained distinct.
Separate wholesale supply from retail
Labour’s proposal would separate supermarket retail from wholesale supply. The Spinoff describes its aim as addressing competition among buyers and improving supplier access for smaller stores or potential new entrants. This approach focuses on who can buy from suppliers and on what terms, rather than simply adding another familiar supermarket brand.
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Create a publicly owned competitor
The Green Party’s KiwiMart proposal would add another grocery operator. Pacific Media Network reported a proposed $2.8 billion plan that would require Woolworths and Foodstuffs to divest at least 120 stores and distribution-centre capacity into public ownership. Those are reported proposal details, not a verified estimate of how the plan would affect competition or prices. Pacific Media Network’s report on KiwiMart
How the proposals differ
| Proposal | What it would separate or add | Competition problem it targets |
|---|---|---|
| Foodstuffs brand split | Separate nationwide chains organised around Pak’nSave, New World and Four Square; the available account does not specify every function that would be separated. | Reduce shared control or coordination across Foodstuffs’ brands; the available sources do not establish the effect on prices. |
| Labour wholesale-retail separation | Separate wholesale supply from supermarket retail. | Improve competition among buyers and access to suppliers for smaller stores or potential entrants. |
| Green Party KiwiMart | Add a publicly owned grocery operator; the reported proposal includes divestment of at least 120 stores and distribution-centre capacity. | Add another retail competitor. |
The Spinoff reports that Foodstuffs and Woolworths together control 82% of New Zealand’s grocery market. The article does not identify the underlying dataset, measurement date or method, so the figure is best treated as a reported indication of concentration, not a fully documented current market-share calculation. The Spinoff’s supermarket-split explainer
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Will any plan make a difference at the checkout?
The polling reported here cannot answer that causal question. The Verian figures measure what respondents expected; they do not measure prices after a policy change. The available Talbot Mills account does not even provide its toplines, and none of the cited reporting establishes the likely price effect of the proposals.
To judge a claim about cheaper groceries, distinguish the intervention from the outcome: a brand split, a wholesale-retail separation and a new public operator would alter different market arrangements. Whether any one would lead to lower prices would require evidence about its implementation and resulting competition. The poll results alone are not proof either way.
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