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For the United States, programming remains a defensible career investment on long-run projections, but the entry route is harder than the headline numbers suggest. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects software-developer employment to grow 10.2% from 2025 to 2035, while LinkedIn’s February 2026 report finds that entry-level software-engineering hiring had not rebounded by the end of 2025. Whether the field is worth it for you depends less on the national trend than on which job you mean, where you would work, what training would cost in money and time, and whether you can realistically reach a first role.
Start with the job title, because the outlooks differ
“Programming” is used loosely, but BLS tracks several related occupations separately, and their projections point in different directions. The table uses the three groupings that matter for this question.
| Measure (U.S., BLS) | Software developers | Computer programmers | Software developers, QA analysts, and testers (combined) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core work | Analyze users’ needs and design and develop software; may work across maintenance and testing | Primarily write, modify, and test code and scripts | A combined category, not a single occupation |
| Employment change, 2025–35 | +10.2% | -7.3% | +10% (compared with 3% for all occupations) |
| Employment, 2025 to 2035 | 1,717,800 to 1,892,600 | 110,800 to 102,700 | Not stated (BLS 2025–35 projections) |
| Average annual openings | 95,300 | 4,400 | About 106,100 |
| Median annual wage | $135,980 (May 2025, national) | Not stated (BLS 2025–35 projections) | Not stated (BLS 2025–35 projections) |
| Typical preparation (BLS occupational profile) | Bachelor’s degree in computer and information technology or a related field | Not stated (BLS 2025–35 projections) | Bachelor’s degree in computer and information technology or a related field is typical for all three roles |
These are national U.S. estimates and projections, not counts of live job postings. Openings include replacement needs as well as new jobs, so an annual openings figure does not tell you how quickly a particular applicant will be hired.
Long-run demand and pay
BLS projects software-developer employment to rise by a net 174,700 jobs between 2025 and 2035, a 10.2% increase, with an average of 95,300 openings a year. The published endpoints (1,717,800 and 1,892,600) differ from that net figure by 100, so quote the net change as BLS reports it rather than subtracting the rounded endpoints yourself. The median annual wage for the occupation was $135,980 in May 2025. That median describes established workers nationally. It is not an entry-level salary and not a prediction of what any individual will earn.
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The computer-programmer category points the other way. BLS projects it to shrink by 7.3%, from 110,800 jobs to 102,700, with about 4,400 openings a year. That gap is the main reason to separate “software developer” from “programmer” when reading labor-market headlines. It is a reason to read job titles carefully, not evidence that coding skills have no value.
The combined group of software developers, QA analysts, and testers is projected to grow 10% over the same decade, against 3% for all occupations, with about 106,100 openings a year. That figure is useful for thinking about testing and quality roles, but it cannot stand in for the software-developer numbers.
What employers typically expect
BLS lists a bachelor’s degree in computer and information technology or a related field as typical preparation for software developers, QA analysts, and testers, and notes that some employers prefer a master’s degree. This describes the usual entry requirement in the occupational profile. It is not a universal hiring rule, and it does not show that a degree produces a financial return for every student.
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Getting hired now is the harder part
Long-run projections do not measure today’s competition for openings. The most current view of that competition comes from LinkedIn Economic Graph’s February 2026 U.S. report, which covers hiring through the end of 2025. Newer monthly hiring figures may differ.
The entry-level squeeze
- Software-engineering hiring slowed sharply between mid-2022 and late 2023, and entry-level hiring had not rebounded by the end of 2025.
- Fewer computer-science graduates start in software engineering. Of CS graduates in 2023 and 2024, 55% began in roles outside software engineering, compared with 49% in 2016.
- LinkedIn says software-engineering hiring broadly tracked national and technology-sector hiring. The report does not establish that AI caused the entry-level slowdown, and it describes AI’s role in inhibiting recovery as unclear.
These are observations from LinkedIn platform data, not a census of all U.S. graduates or employers. The fair description is a difficult and unsettled entry-level market.
Where software-engineering hiring happens
LinkedIn attributes the following shares of software-engineering hiring between 2021 and 2025 to these sectors:
| Sector | Share of software-engineering hiring, 2021–25 (LinkedIn) |
|---|---|
| Technology | 35% |
| Professional services | 21% |
| Manufacturing | 13% |
| Financial services | 12% |
The report also shows rising hiring shares for AI Engineer and Machine Learning Engineer roles, while general software roles remain significant. Other sectors make up the remainder and are not itemized. The practical lesson is to search beyond software companies, not to assume every sector is hiring.
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What AI is changing in programming work
BLS examined this question in a Monthly Labor Review article published in February 2025. Its author, Christine Machovec, is an economist in BLS’s Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics. She writes: “Programming is one of many work activities in which new LLMs and GenAI are well suited to augment worker efforts and increase productivity.”
The article explains that generative AI can help with developing, testing, and documenting code. Its net effect on software-developer employment is uncertain. Higher productivity can reduce the labor needed per task, while lower software costs, broader demand for software, and the work of building and maintaining AI systems could support employment. The article’s conclusions rest on BLS’s 2023–33 projection assumptions, so use its reasoning rather than its older growth figure; the current baseline is the 2025–35 projections above.
A reader asking whether AI will replace software developers should note that these sources do not support the claim that AI has made software careers obsolete. They describe a shifting task mix and an uncertain net effect on jobs, which is a different and more demanding question for anyone entering the field.
Skills that show up in hiring data
LinkedIn’s 2021–25 analysis identifies software development, Java, JavaScript, Python, and AWS among common skills in software-engineering job postings. Among hires, Python, AWS, SQL, JavaScript, and React.js appear prominently. AI, Tailwind CSS, and data and cloud platforms appear among the fast-growing skills.
The pattern supports keeping core programming knowledge and adding cloud, data, or AI skills that match a target role. It does not identify a single best language or credential.
Best Value
If you pay for training, compare cost and curriculum against the work you will actually produce. Hands-on projects, code review, and testing exercises are the things to check. Neither BLS nor LinkedIn endorses any course provider, and completing a course does not guarantee a job.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Is it still worth investing in the field?
The defensible answer is: potentially, if you choose a specific role and a route you can afford. Long-run projections for software development are positive, and the reported national median wage is high. Entry-level competition is real, however, and a national median does not predict a starting salary.
Quick Recap
A step-by-step check before you commit
- Choose a specific role. Pick one from the table above, or a related role such as QA, data, cloud, security, or AI-focused engineering, and check that role’s own BLS entry. These roles have different duties and forecasts.
- Price the full route. Add tuition, course fees, equipment, and months without paid work. Compare that total with entry wages where you would actually work, not with the national median. The BLS and LinkedIn figures do not calculate the return on any degree or course; that calculation needs your costs, prior experience, and local pay.
- Check local and sector demand. Search for openings under the exact role title in your area, and check technology, professional services, manufacturing, and financial services employers. Sector shares describe 2021–25 hiring across the country, not your city.
- Evaluate your ability on more than code output. Build projects that you can test, maintain, and explain, and be ready to show problem-solving and communication, not just the code itself.
- Set a decision point. Decide in advance how long you will pursue a first role before adjusting, whether by targeting a related job, a different sector, or an added skill. This is a planning choice, not a forecast.
How the answer shifts by situation
- Experienced developers: The national projections and median wage are most relevant to you. The entry-level figures matter less than whether your current skills match cloud, data, or AI demand in your target market.
- New graduates: Expect a longer search. Apply across sectors and consider adjacent first roles, because a growing share of computer-science graduates start outside software engineering.
- Career changers: Weigh training cost and time out of work most heavily, and test your practical ability with a portfolio before committing to a long program.
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