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The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey-based index of U.S. manufacturing conditions. In the September 2026 report, the headline PMI was 54.5 and the New Orders Index rose 1.6 points to 55.3. Both readings were above 50, which indicates expansion in the survey measures—not a matching percentage increase in factory output or order dollars.

What the ISM Manufacturing PMI measures

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys purchasing and supply executives about how conditions at their organizations changed from the previous month. Its manufacturing panel covers 18 industries classified using NAICS and is stratified according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. The survey responses are not altered; the indexes summarize the reported direction of change. ISM’s Manufacturing Report on Business also cautions that it does not make representations about the data-collection procedures of individual companies.

For positive-direction measures, ISM calculates a diffusion index by adding the percentage of respondents reporting improvement to half the percentage reporting no change. This is why a reading reflects the breadth of reported change, rather than the size of a change in production, sales, or orders.

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How the five components form the headline index

The Manufacturing PMI combines five subindexes with equal weight. Four are seasonally adjusted; Supplier Deliveries is not. ISM’s methodology calculates the unadjusted diffusion indexes, divides the four adjusted series by their seasonal factors, and averages the resulting five values. Seasonal adjustment factors are updated annually. ISM’s report and calculation guidance describe the method.

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September 2026 component Index What it indicates
New Orders 55.3 Expansion in reported new orders
Production 56.7 Expansion in reported production
Employment 52.7 Expansion in reported employment
Supplier Deliveries 59.0 Slower supplier deliveries; a higher reading reflects slower delivery performance
Inventories 48.6 Contraction in reported inventories
Manufacturing PMI 54.5 Composite reading across all five components

Figures are from ISM’s September 2026 report. The headline PMI eased 0.1 point from August’s 54.6 even as New Orders increased from 53.7 to 55.3. A composite can move differently from one component because it averages all five.

What a rise in New Orders means

A higher New Orders reading means the balance of surveyed manufacturers reporting month-to-month improvement strengthened. In September 2026, 23.4% of respondents reported higher orders, 61.1% reported no change, and 15.5% reported lower orders. Applying ISM’s diffusion method—improvement plus half of unchanged responses—produces the 55.3 index reading.

The index was above 50, so ISM classified new orders as expanding. It was the ninth consecutive month of expansion after four months of contraction. The rise of 1.6 points describes movement in the index, not a 1.6% increase in order volume. Nor does it establish that every industry improved: ISM reported growth in new orders in 10 industries and declines in four.

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ISM says a New Orders reading above 51.9 over time is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s manufacturing-orders series in constant 2000 dollars. That is a historical relationship, not a promise that a particular month’s index change will translate into a corresponding change in dollar orders. The survey index and government orders series are related indicators, not interchangeable measurements. ISM’s report describes this qualification.

How to interpret the thresholds

  • Above 50: The manufacturing measure is generally expanding; below 50, it is generally contracting.
  • Distance from 50: Indicates the strength of expansion or contraction in the diffusion measure, not the percentage change in output.
  • Above 47.5 over time: ISM says a Manufacturing PMI reading above this level generally indicates expansion in the overall economy. This is a separate historical relationship, not the manufacturing-sector expansion line of 50.

The 50 threshold answers whether more respondents reported improvement than deterioration after unchanged answers receive half weight. It does not say how much output or demand changed.

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When and how the report is released

The September 2026 report was released under the name ISM PMI Reports. ISM says its Manufacturing report is published on the first business day of the month at 10:00 a.m. Regional manufacturing reports are not used to calculate the national report. Because the figures describe survey respondents’ reports, ISM advises readers to consider other economic sources when making decisions. See ISM’s report information and methodology.

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