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High S&P 500 valuations have historically been associated with lower average returns over long periods, but they do not reliably predict when prices will fall—or what any investor will earn. A valuation measure such as Shiller CAPE is useful context for long-term expectations, not a market-timing signal or a forecast with a dependable date.
What a high valuation means
Shiller CAPE, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, compares the market’s current price with a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. Using a decade of earnings is intended to smooth the effects of short-term economic swings; it does not make CAPE a direct measure of what companies will earn next year.
A high CAPE means investors are paying a relatively high price compared with that measure of past earnings. If the price-to-earnings multiple later falls, that change can weigh on returns even if earnings grow. If the multiple stays high or rises, the effect can be different. The ratio alone cannot tell you which path will occur.
Research Affiliates describes its S&P 500 CAPE series as using the index constituents that existed at each point in the preceding decade, rather than applying today’s membership retroactively. That matters because companies enter and leave the index over time.
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Why starting valuations can matter over long horizons
A long-horizon return reflects more than the price investors pay at the start. A useful way to think about it is through three contributors: income from the investment, growth in the underlying business or earnings, and the change in the valuation investors assign to those earnings. AQR’s 2025 expected-return discussion treats valuation change as difficult to forecast in advance and, in its simplified framework, assumes no change in valuation.
Starting valuation matters because the multiple can change substantially over time. When the starting multiple is high, a future decline in that multiple can offset some income and earnings growth. This helps explain why high starting valuations have historically been associated with lower average long-run returns. It does not mean every high-valuation period must be followed by a decline, or that the decline must happen soon.
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What historical studies show—and what they don’t
AQR’s 2025 historical analysis reported these correlations for an exhibit covering January 1, 1881, through June 30, 2025:
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| Decadal realized S&P 500 returns and changes in 10-year CAPE | 0.93 |
| Decadal realized S&P 500 returns and real EPS growth | 0.39 |
| Decadal realized S&P 500 returns and changes in 10-year average real earnings | 0.09 |
These are retrospective correlations in that analysis, not forecasts of future returns or proof that the same relationships will continue. In particular, the 0.93 figure describes the historical relationship between realized decadal returns and changes in CAPE; it does not mean CAPE changes can be predicted accurately in advance.
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Campbell and Shiller’s study of U.S. annual data from 1871 to 2000 and quarterly data from 12 countries since 1970 found that valuation ratios did poorly at forecasting future dividend, earnings, or productivity growth. Their results point more toward valuation ratios being useful for understanding future stock-price changes than as direct forecasts of future business growth. A high CAPE, by itself, is therefore not evidence that earnings growth is about to weaken.
There are also statistical limits to claims about predictability. Campbell and Yogo explain that conventional tests can be invalid when valuation predictors are persistent; their adjusted approach finds evidence of predictability. Boudoukh, Richardson, and Whitelaw, in turn, critique the apparent strength of long-horizon results: overlapping returns and persistent predictors can make estimates across horizons highly correlated. These methodological differences are a reason to treat historical findings as context rather than a precise return rule.
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What CAPE cannot tell you
- When a decline will begin. A high ratio does not identify a catalyst or a date. Valuations can remain elevated or rise further before a fall.
- How far prices might fall. CAPE alone does not specify the depth or duration of a market decline.
- A particular annual return. Historical associations do not guarantee a specified return for a future period or for an individual investor.
- Whether every company is expensive. The S&P 500 is an aggregate of 500 leading U.S. companies and covers approximately 80% of available U.S. market capitalization, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices’ index description accessed October 7, 2026. An index-level valuation does not describe each constituent’s valuation or prospects.
How to use a high valuation in an investment decision
Use valuation as one input to expectations, alongside your time horizon, risk tolerance, diversification, and need for cash. A high CAPE can support caution about assuming unusually strong long-term returns, but it cannot tell you to sell everything, move to cash, or wait for a correction. Such decisions require assumptions about timing and future returns that the ratio does not provide.
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When comparing valuation claims, check that they use comparable definitions. Ask whether earnings are trailing, cyclically adjusted, or based on forward estimates; whether earnings are inflation-adjusted; what return horizon is being discussed; and whether the result concerns price returns or total returns, nominal or real. Also check whether the analysis assumes valuations will change and how it tests predictability. Different choices can produce results that are not directly comparable, and the cited evidence does not establish one universally superior valuation measure.
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No current CAPE reading or numerical future-return forecast is provided here. Without a dated reading and a stated calculation method, a present-day number would be easy to misinterpret as more precise or current than it is.
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