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Disruptions to major shipping routes can push oil prices higher by delaying supply, making future shortages seem more likely, and adding freight, fuel, insurance, and vessel costs. Those costs can feed into consumer inflation, but not automatically or all at once: the effect depends on what cargo is affected, how long the disruption lasts, available alternatives and inventories, and how exposed importing countries and consumers are.
How a shipping disruption can raise oil prices
There are two connected but distinct channels. First, a blocked or delayed route can reduce the amount of oil or fuel reaching a market when expected. Buyers may then bid up available supplies, especially if there is no quick substitute. Even when cargoes are delayed rather than lost, uncertainty about future deliveries can raise prices because markets price in the risk of scarcity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) explains that trade-flow disruptions increase the risk of supply shortages and can cause price spikes (EIA’s petroleum trade explainer).
Second, ships may take longer, more expensive routes instead of passing through a disrupted chokepoint. Longer voyages use more fuel and keep vessels unavailable for other cargoes; freight and insurance costs may also rise. These expenses can affect delivered prices even if the oil ultimately reaches its destination. The added cost is not a fixed surcharge on every barrel: it varies with the cargo, route, vessel, market conditions, and length of delay.
Why the route and cargo matter
Shipping chokepoints differ greatly in the volume and type of energy cargo they carry. For example, EIA reported that Bab el-Mandeb handled 12% of seaborne oil trade in the first half of 2023. By contrast, average oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were 20.9 million barrels per day in 2023—about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. These figures describe different routes and measures, and should not be treated as interchangeable (EIA’s February 2024 Red Sea analysis; EIA’s October 2024 tanker-flow analysis).
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A route disruption also affects different products differently. Crude oil, refined fuels such as diesel, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and container freight are not equivalent measures. A disruption may chiefly delay one type of cargo, tighten a particular regional fuel market, or raise broader shipping costs without removing an equivalent volume of oil from global supply.
Rerouting can delay deliveries and raise transport costs
When ships divert around a chokepoint, supply may continue, but take longer and cost more to deliver. In its February 2024 analysis, EIA cited typical voyage times of 19 days from the Persian Gulf to the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp petroleum-trading hub via Suez, compared with nearly 35 days via the Cape of Good Hope. In a separate June 2024 example, EIA said a trip from the Arabian Sea to Europe via the Cape takes about 15 days longer than via Bab el-Mandeb and Suez. The endpoints and comparisons differ, so these examples should not be combined into a single standard delay (EIA, February 2024; EIA, June 2024).
Longer journeys can tie up ships and affect the cost of moving other cargoes, too. For scale, EIA estimated that a very large gas carrier’s high-sulfur bunker-fuel consumption cost about $30,000–$35,000 per day at average 2023 fuel prices. That is a dated, vessel-specific illustration of operating expense—not an oil-price surcharge or a figure that applies to every ship or cargo (EIA, February 2024).
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Higher crude prices can lift the cost of fuel directly. If freight, fuel, or insurance costs remain elevated, they can also feed into the cost of moving goods and producing items that use energy or transport. Businesses may absorb some of the increase, pass some on to customers, or adjust prices later; the timing and size of any consumer-price effect depend on how persistent the cost increase is and how much an economy relies on the affected route and goods. Ocean-freight increases do not translate one-for-one into consumer-price inflation.
Estimates from particular episodes illustrate why qualifications matter. UNCTAD estimated in June 2024 that global consumer prices could be 0.6% higher by late 2025 if container freight-rate increases observed between October 2023 and June 2024 continued through the end of 2025. This was a conditional scenario, not a finding that shipping disruption alone raised global prices by that amount (UNCTAD, June 2024).
An IMF Working Paper published in February 2026 reported that, in its analyzed setting, a 100-hour shipping delay was associated with roughly 0.5 percentage points at a five-month inflation peak. The result concerns that study’s setting and should not be read as a universal estimate for every delay or route disruption (IMF Working Paper 26/26).
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How large disruptions have affected routes and prices
The scale of disruption can be seen in traffic changes. The IMF reported in March 2024 that the Suez Canal accounts for about 15% of global maritime trade volume and the Panama Canal about 5%. In the first two months of 2024, Suez Canal trade volume fell 50% year over year, while Cape of Good Hope transits rose 74% above their prior-year level. IMF also cited an average delivery-time increase of 10 days or more for diversions around the Cape. These are all-maritime-trade and shipping measures, not oil-only statistics (IMF, March 7, 2024).
Oil flows through Bab el-Mandeb also changed over time. EIA, citing Vortexa data, reported average flows of 4.0 million barrels per day in 2024 through August, compared with 8.7 million barrels per day for full-year 2023. Because those periods differ, the figures show a dated contrast rather than a like-for-like annual comparison (EIA, October 11, 2024).
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Trade can adapt as buyers seek other suppliers and routes, although that adaptation may itself keep some markets tight. EIA’s account of the 2022 European diesel market after Russia sanctions offers an example of this broader mechanism, not a shipping-route closure: European buyers replaced Russian supply with more distant cargoes, and increased exports also affected U.S. prices. EIA says those price effects eased as trade routes adjusted (EIA’s petroleum trade explainer).
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What affects the size and duration of the impact
A disruption is more likely to put sustained upward pressure on prices when it affects a large flow, lasts a long time, or leaves buyers with few substitutes. The main factors to consider are:
- Volume and cargo type: how much crude, refined fuel, or other energy cargo normally uses the route, and whether that is the product currently in short supply.
- What happens to the cargo: whether it is blocked, delayed, or rerouted. A delayed delivery can create short-term tightness without permanently removing supply.
- Extra voyage costs: the additional time, fuel, freight, insurance, and vessel capacity required to keep trade moving.
- Available buffers: inventories, spare capacity, alternative routes, and suppliers that can replace affected cargoes.
- Regional exposure: how dependent importers are on energy shipments and how much room businesses, households, and governments have to absorb higher costs.
- Duration and timing: how long the disruption and cost increases persist; oil-market reactions can be quicker than pass-through to broader consumer prices.
For households and importing economies, exposure is uneven. Import dependence, alternative sourcing, buffers, and the share of household spending devoted to fuel and food all influence how a shock is felt. In its March 2026 analysis of conflict affecting energy trade and finance, the IMF described energy importers and countries with limited buffers as particularly exposed (IMF, March 30, 2026).
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In a July 15, 2026 report, EIA said Brent front-month futures ranged from $72 to $118 per barrel in 2026 Q2 amid continuing Hormuz-related flow disruption. That range describes a particular quarter and episode; it is not a predictable price increase for every shipping disruption (EIA, July 15, 2026). The World Bank’s April 2026 commodity outlook discussed the same shock and projected higher annual energy prices under assumptions that acute disruption would ease and shipping would gradually recover; it is a dated forecast based on those assumptions, not a timeless price rule (World Bank, April 2026).
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