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NOAA reported staffing reductions in 2025 during the Trump administration’s government-efficiency effort, but the available evidence does not show that Elon Musk or named DOGE aides personally directed each NOAA action. A widely cited estimate of about 1,300 affected workers came from a former NOAA official, not an official agency count. Congress also rejected the administration’s proposed NOAA budget cuts wholesale. The consequences for forecasts and warnings have not been quantified in the authoritative assessment.
What happened to NOAA’s workforce?
In February 2025, the Associated Press reported that NOAA probationary employees had been fired. The AP later reported an estimate that two rounds of cuts affected about 1,300 people, or roughly 10% of NOAA’s workforce. That figure was attributed to former NOAA chief scientist Craig McLean, who said he had information from a first-hand source; it is not a confirmed NOAA employee count.
A separate, agency-wide staffing comparison comes from the Congressional Research Service (CRS). NOAA had over 12,200 full-time-equivalent employees in FY2024 and just over 11,000 in FY2026 in the Operations, Research, and Facilities (ORF) and Procurement, Acquisition, and Construction (PAC) accounts. CRS says FY2025 staffing figures were unavailable. These account-specific figures do not necessarily cover every NOAA worker or establish how many people were dismissed in 2025.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches| Measure | What it says | Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Reported early-2025 layoffs | About 1,300 people, or roughly 10% of NOAA’s workforce | Estimate attributed by the Associated Press to former NOAA chief scientist Craig McLean, based on information he said came from a first-hand source; not an official NOAA count. |
| FY2024 staffing | Over 12,200 FTEs | CRS-reported NOAA figures for the ORF and PAC accounts. |
| FY2025 staffing | Not available | CRS said FY2025 FTE figures were unavailable. |
| FY2026 staffing | Just over 11,000 FTEs | CRS-reported NOAA figures for the ORF and PAC accounts; not necessarily all NOAA workers. |
| FY2027 staffing proposal | About 1,500 fewer FTEs than FY2026 | Administration proposal reported by CRS, not an enacted staffing level. |
FTE means full-time equivalent: a measure of labor capacity, not necessarily a headcount of individual employees. The reported layoff estimate and the CRS figures use different methods and scopes, so they should not be treated as directly interchangeable counts.
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Did Musk’s DOGE aides direct the NOAA cuts?
The evidence supports a link between NOAA’s staffing reductions and the administration’s broader government-efficiency effort, but it does not establish a NOAA-specific chain of command naming who directed or approved each action. Calling the people involved “henchmen” implies personal subordination and a demonstrated role in targeting NOAA; the reviewed evidence does not establish either for particular individuals.
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) identified 206 DOGE personnel who held positions within the Executive Office of the President from January 20, 2025, through January 31, 2026. GAO cautioned that its count did not capture everyone advancing DOGE initiatives at federal agencies, and it does not identify who made decisions about NOAA’s personnel.
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GAO also reported that Musk held a White House senior-adviser role as a special government employee, was described by the President as leading the overall DOGE effort, and left that role in May 2025. That establishes his position in the wider effort, not that he personally ordered specific NOAA layoffs.
What did Congress do with the proposed NOAA budget cuts?
Congress did not enact the administration’s FY2026 NOAA request wholesale. CRS reports that FY2026 enacted funding exceeded the administration’s request for every NOAA line office and for Mission Support. Against FY2025 estimates, enacted funding was 8% higher for the National Weather Service (NWS) and nearly 10% lower for the Oceanic and Atmospheric Research office (OAR).
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| Issue | Administration proposal | Enacted FY2026 outcome |
|---|---|---|
| NOAA line offices and Mission Support | The administration requested lower funding. | Congress enacted more than the request for every line office and Mission Support, according to CRS. |
| National Weather Service (NWS) | Part of the administration’s NOAA request. | Funding was 8% higher than FY2025 estimates, according to CRS. |
| Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) | The administration proposed eliminating OAR. | OAR received funding; its FY2026 enacted amount was nearly 10% below the FY2025 estimate, according to CRS. |
The administration’s proposed elimination of OAR was a request, not the enacted result. Separately, the FY2027 request proposed staffing in the ORF and PAC accounts about 1,500 FTEs below FY2026 levels. CRS reports that a House report said NWS staffing “should be prioritized,” but did not address NOAA’s broader workforce. That proposed staffing level is not a completed cut.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Did NOAA restore the jobs, and were weather services affected?
NOAA announced mission-critical field hiring in June 2025 and said it would reassign some staff, the Associated Press reported. The agency did not state how many positions it would post. The announcement therefore does not show how many people were hired, whether vacancies were fully restored, or how much operational capacity returned.
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CRS’s assessment is that “the effects of staff reductions on NOAA’s ability to fulfill its authorities remain unclear.” The reviewed evidence does not quantify an overall causal effect on forecast accuracy, warning lead times, or every NOAA program. That uncertainty is not proof that there were no operational effects; it means the available assessment does not establish their scale.
NOAA’s weather work depends on more than NWS staffing alone, and the budget and staffing measures above cover different things. The evidence supports concern about staffing and service capacity, but not a specific measured decline in forecasts or warnings that can be attributed to the cuts.
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What the evidence can—and cannot—establish
- Established: NOAA probationary employees were reported fired in February 2025, and NOAA later announced mission-critical field hiring and staff reassignments.
- Attributed, not confirmed as an agency total: The estimate of about 1,300 people affected in two rounds came from former NOAA chief scientist Craig McLean, as reported by the AP.
- Official but account-specific: CRS reported FY2024 and FY2026 FTE figures for the ORF and PAC accounts; FY2025 figures were unavailable.
- Proposed, not enacted: The administration’s FY2027 staffing reduction and its earlier OAR-elimination proposal were proposals, not the respective enacted outcomes.
- Not established: The available sources do not name a complete NOAA-specific decision chain connecting particular DOGE personnel to individual staffing actions, or measure the overall effect on weather services.
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