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If VOO repeated its previous five-year total return, a $1,000 investment could grow to about $2,060 over another five years—roughly $2,100. That is a hypothetical illustration, not a forecast or guarantee. The outcome depends on future market returns, which could be substantially lower or higher.
How the $1,000-to-$2,100 illustration works
In a June 26, 2025 article for The Motley Fool, Neil Patel reported that the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) had a total return of 106% over the five years through June 23, 2025. Applying that same return to $1,000 gives about $2,060: $1,000 multiplied by 2.06. That is the basis for the article’s rounded figure of nearly $2,100.
The calculation assumes the next five years match the prior five years. It does not establish what VOO will be worth in June 2030. Actual returns could differ, and an investment can lose value.
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What VOO holds and why investors use it
VOO is a passive exchange-traded fund designed to track the S&P 500, an index of 500 large U.S.-listed companies. Buying shares in one fund provides exposure to many companies rather than requiring an investor to purchase each one individually. That breadth does not eliminate market risk: the fund’s value can fall when its holdings or the broader U.S. stock market decline.
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The Motley Fool article gave VOO an annual expense ratio of 0.03% in 2025. That is the figure reported in that article, not confirmation of the current fee. Check Vanguard’s latest official fund materials for current expenses and fund details before relying on them.
The bull case Patel described
Patel’s optimistic case rested on several forces that could support U.S. stocks: continued inflows into passive investing, the strength of major technology businesses, ongoing economic growth, and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies. If those conditions support company earnings and investor demand, the S&P 500 could continue to perform well.
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These are arguments for a favorable outcome, not evidence that it will occur. Investor flows, business performance, economic growth, and government policy can change, and none guarantees a particular return for VOO.
The bear case: valuation and lower future returns
Patel’s main caution was valuation. The article reported a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) of 36.1 as of June 23, 2025, above its trailing 20-year average. CAPE compares stock prices with inflation-adjusted earnings over a longer period than a conventional price-to-earnings ratio. The cited figure is a dated observation, not a current reading.
A high valuation can leave less room for further price gains and increase the risk that future returns will be lower than recent returns. It does not, by itself, tell investors when prices will fall or establish that a decline is inevitable. If the next five years are weaker than the five-year period Patel used, the $1,000 illustration will overstate the resulting value.
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How to use the illustration without mistaking it for a forecast
- Treat the result as a scenario. The roughly $2,060 calculation shows what follows from repeating a particular past return; it is not a prediction of VOO’s value.
- Separate historical performance from current facts. The 106% return and 36.1 CAPE reading are tied to dates in June 2025. They should not be presented as current figures.
- Check current fund information. Verify the expense ratio and fund details in current official Vanguard materials rather than assuming the 2025 article’s fee figure remains unchanged.
- Consider your own time horizon and risk tolerance. A broad index fund still moves with the stock market, and the article’s five-year example does not establish whether VOO fits a particular investor.
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