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In June 2023, former CISA director Chris Krebs predicted a “very, very active” threat landscape around the 2024 U.S. presidential race. He meant two distinct kinds of risk: foreign and domestic efforts to shape public opinion, and the possibility of attacks on election infrastructure. The forecast described what he expected—not proof that any particular operation occurred or changed votes.
What did Krebs predict in 2023?
In an interview published by CyberScoop on June 1, 2023, Krebs—then a partner at Krebs Stamos Group—said there were more motivations for foreign actors to influence the 2024 race than in 2020, and that interference was also possible. He said he was “fully expecting a very, very active threat landscape.” Read the CyberScoop interview.
Krebs identified Russia, China and Iran as potential foreign actors. He also warned that domestic political actors, ranging from political action committees to militia groups, could borrow tactics associated with foreign influence operations. These were his expectations in 2023, not findings that those actors necessarily carried out particular operations in 2024.
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| Category | Primary target | What it can involve | What evidence would establish impact? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Influence | Public opinion and political discourse | Deceptive narratives, impersonation, amplification and efforts to deepen divisions | Evidence of the activity and its reach or effect on public discourse; its presence alone does not establish a changed vote. |
| Interference | Election infrastructure or systems | Technical attacks or disruption aimed at election systems | Evidence that systems were compromised or disrupted, with evidence of the specific effect claimed. |
Krebs used “influence” for attempts to shape public opinion and “interference” for attacks on election infrastructure. The distinction matters: a false claim circulating online is not, by itself, proof that voter systems were breached, ballots altered, or votes changed.
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What methods did agencies describe in 2024?
An April 2024 guide from CISA, the FBI and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence described foreign malign influence tactics including fake online accounts; real people who promote narratives knowingly or unknowingly; proxy websites and organizations; and efforts to intensify social divisions. It also said generative AI could help create realistic synthetic text, images, audio and video at greater scale. The guide describes methods; it does not attribute every method to Russia, China, Iran, or any single actor. Read the interagency guide.
What did officials say after the 2024 election?
October 18: warning about disinformation, not a report of compromised votes
On October 18, 2024, the FBI and CISA warned that foreign actors were spreading false claims about election processes and results. In the same announcement, they said they had no information suggesting malicious cyber activity had compromised voter-registration information, prevented eligible voters from casting ballots, affected ballots, or disrupted counting or the timely transmission of unofficial results. That statement was bounded to what the agencies knew at that time; it did not say there had been no influence activity. Read the FBI-CISA announcement.
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November 6: CISA’s immediate post-election assessment
On November 6, CISA Director Jen Easterly said the agency had no evidence of malicious activity that materially affected the security or integrity of election infrastructure. She noted that election officials still had to complete certification. This was an immediate post-election assessment, not a statement that all certification had already finished. Read Easterly’s statement.
Together, these dated statements distinguish online disinformation from demonstrated cyber effects on election systems. They do not establish that no meddling of any kind occurred, nor do they support inferring vote impact from the existence of misleading narratives.
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Where election officials can find CISA resources
CISA’s election-security materials are intended for election-infrastructure stakeholders, not as consumer products. Its official resources include election security training and a cybersecurity toolkit and resources to protect elections; CISA describes these materials and training as available at no cost.
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