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Fay’s weakening and disappearance from the National Hurricane Center’s tropical-cyclone map on July 10, 2020, did not mean the rain and local hazards were over. The storm was moving inland across New Jersey, and forecasters still expected rain, possible flooding, and—across the New York tri-state forecast area—additional weekend hazards including dangerous surf and rip currents.
Why rain and hazards continued as Fay weakened
A storm can lose tropical strength while its rain and other effects continue. At 11 p.m. EDT on July 10, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Storm Fay was moving north over northern New Jersey, about 15 miles northwest of New York City, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The NHC expected Fay to keep weakening as it moved across southeastern New York and western New England, while still forecasting 1 to 3 inches of rain.
That advisory shows why a storm’s status on a tropical-weather map is not an all-clear signal. The map tracked the tropical cyclone; it did not define the full extent or duration of rain, flooding, surf, or other local weather hazards.
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The NHC’s forecasts changed between advisories, so the amounts need to be read with their issue times. They were forecasts—not verified rainfall measurements.
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| Advisory | Rain forecast | What it said about impacts |
|---|---|---|
| NHC Advisory 6, 5 p.m. EDT, July 10, 2020 | 2 to 4 inches along and near Fay’s track, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches | The heaviest rain could cause flash and urban flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. |
| NHC Advisory 7, 11 p.m. EDT, July 10, 2020 | 1 to 3 inches | Fay was moving inland and expected to weaken, but rain remained in the forecast. |
The later advisory’s lower forecast is not evidence that the earlier amount had already fallen, nor does either forecast establish what any particular location received. The NHC’s retrospective account says Fay caused minor coastal flooding and inland freshwater flooding, but the official material available here does not establish a verified storm-total rainfall figure for a named gauge or station.
What the New York tri-state forecast office warned about
In its 5 p.m. ET briefing on July 10, the National Weather Service (NWS) office in New York described ongoing heavy downpours and coastal winds, with a localized flash-flood threat. Its forecast was for the New York tri-state area, not the entire Northeast.
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- Coastal winds: The briefing forecast winds of 35–40 mph and gusts up to 50 mph along the coast.
- Additional rain: It said another 1 to 2 inches was possible in the Lower Hudson Valley and southwestern Connecticut through 2 a.m.
- Saturday storms: The office noted additional isolated severe-storm and flash-flood potential Saturday afternoon and evening.
- Coastal water and surf: It warned that high surf and dangerous rip currents would continue through the weekend. The NHC retrospective report later characterized the coastal flooding caused by Fay as minor.
Why the storm track was not a boundary for impacts
The NWS New York office cautioned: “Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone.” A track or cone graphic helps show a forecast path; it should not be treated as a map of every place that could experience rain, flooding, or coastal hazards.
For Fay, the practical distinction was between the storm’s changing tropical classification and hazards forecast for particular places and times. The NHC advisories covered rainfall along and near the track, while the local NWS briefing supplied area-specific expectations for the tri-state region.
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Forecast amounts are not observed totals
The rain figures above describe what forecasters expected in advisories issued on July 10, 2020. The NHC retrospective account confirms that inland freshwater flooding occurred, but the cited available summary does not give a numeric observed rainfall total. The Weather Prediction Center lists an official Fay storm-total rainfall product for July 6–11, 2020; without reviewed station values, a precise storm-total measurement should not be inferred from the forecasts.
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