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A nine-box grid can help structure a talent review, but a person’s placement is not a verdict about their future. Use it as one discussion aid: define the roles and capabilities the organization will need, agree on evidence and criteria, challenge judgments across reviewers, and connect decisions to development. AI can help organize information and surface patterns, but people must remain accountable for decisions about employees.
What a nine-box grid can—and cannot—tell you
A nine-box grid is commonly described as a way to compare current performance with estimated potential, placing employees across low, medium, and high bands on each dimension. That description comes from secondary guidance, not a universal or validated standard; organizations may define the axes differently. The grid’s value is in giving reviewers a shared structure for discussion, not in proving what someone will achieve. CIPD Guidance’s discussion of the nine-box grid notes that potential is a judgment and that bias and rater drift can affect ratings.
Performance describes evidence of contribution in a current role and period. Potential is an estimate of capacity to take on different or broader responsibilities, often in a particular context. Neither should be treated as a permanent employee trait. A grid cell cannot establish that someone will succeed in a future role, and the sources cited here do not establish a validated AI method for predicting an individual’s leadership potential.
Start with the roles and future needs
Succession planning should begin with the positions that matter to the organization’s continuity and its future direction—not with a search for people to fill boxes. CIPD frames the work around future leadership and business-critical roles, the capabilities those roles will require, and development for potential successors. CIPD’s succession-planning factsheet recommends considering how the organization may evolve and aligning plans with business needs.
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- Identify the leadership and business-critical roles in scope.
- Describe the capabilities and experience those roles are likely to require as strategy and operating conditions change.
- Decide which talent decisions the review needs to support—for example, readiness development or identifying capability gaps.
This prevents the grid from turning into a generic ranking exercise. A person’s apparent potential matters only in relation to a defined role or future need; current skills alone may not be enough to assess fit for responsibilities that are changing.
Set criteria and evidence before rating people
Agree on what “performance” and “potential” mean for the roles and time horizon under consideration before comparing employees. Make the criteria and evidence expectations clear to reviewers. CIPD advises transparent methods for judging potential successors and objective assessment. Because potential is a judgment, label placements as provisional and record the evidence and assumptions behind them.
- Use specific examples of work and capabilities, rather than general impressions such as “leadership presence.”
- Distinguish demonstrated results from estimates about what an employee might do in a different role.
- Record what evidence is missing and what experience or assessment could help clarify the question.
- Consider whether employees had comparable opportunities, visibility, support, and access to stretch assignments.
Structured evidence can include interviews or competency-based assessments. SHRM describes interview-based and AI-enabled assessment services for succession-related work, but those are provider descriptions, not independent proof that a particular assessment predicts future success. SHRM’s talent intelligence and diagnostics page outlines those services.
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Calibrate decisions and make them challengeable
A manager’s rating should be a starting point for review, not the only voice in the decision. Bring appropriate managers and people professionals together to compare how criteria are being applied. CIPD describes succession committees as a way to review and challenge decisions; SHRM describes talent councils as forums for enterprise-wide talent and succession decisions.
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- What observable evidence supports this placement?
- Have reviewers used the same standard across roles, teams, and employees?
- Could differences in visibility, access to opportunity, or manager advocacy be shaping the rating?
- What evidence would change the assessment, and how could the employee gain that evidence?
- Does the placement connect to a defined future role or capability need?
When a committee changes a placement, document the reason. A challenge process makes decisions more explainable and gives the organization a way to spot inconsistent standards, rather than treating consensus as proof that a judgment is correct.
Use AI for bounded support, not as the decision-maker
AI may help organize structured information, summarize feedback, identify skills patterns, surface workforce trends, or suggest learning resources. SHRM also describes workforce analytics and planning as possible applications. These are support tasks: a summary or pattern can help reviewers ask better questions, but it cannot establish an employee’s potential or determine succession outcomes.
SHRM’s 23 September 2026 article says data should inform decisions rather than make them, and recommends reviewing AI-supported decisions for fairness, consistency, and adverse impact. Read SHRM’s guidance on using AI while maintaining trust and accountability.
- Tell employees where AI is used, what information it analyzes, how recommendations are generated, and when a human reviews them.
- Limit data use to information relevant to the stated talent-review purpose, and protect employee records with appropriate access safeguards.
- Check outputs for inconsistent treatment and adverse impact; investigate patterns rather than assuming a model is neutral.
- Keep a human decision-maker responsible for interpreting evidence and explaining outcomes.
These safeguards matter for accessibility as well as fairness. In U.S. guidance, the EEOC and Department of Justice warn that employment technologies can unlawfully screen out people with disabilities and support having an accommodation process. Their 12 May 2022 announcement emphasizes that new technologies should not become a route to disability discrimination. See the EEOC and DOJ announcement on disability discrimination. This is U.S. guidance; legal obligations vary by jurisdiction, so organizations should apply the relevant local requirements.
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Choose a talent-review approach that fits the organization
Organizations can focus development on a selected high-potential group, take a more inclusive approach that develops all employees while prioritizing particular needs, or blend the two. CIPD describes both focused and inclusive talent-management approaches. The choice affects who receives attention; it does not remove the need for clear criteria and fair access to development.
| Design choice | What it emphasizes | Practical consideration |
|---|---|---|
| Focused talent pool | Concentrated investment in employees identified for specific future needs | Make selection criteria and development access transparent; review who may be overlooked. |
| Inclusive development | Development opportunities broadly available, with priorities based on role and capability needs | Match investments to business needs without implying that every employee is being prepared for the same role. |
| Blended approach | Broad development combined with focused succession preparation for critical roles | Define how the two tracks relate so that a grid placement does not become a permanent label. |
Governance is another design choice. Individual managers can offer close knowledge of an employee’s work, while cross-functional committees or talent councils can challenge differences in standards and connect decisions to organization-wide needs. The latter requires clear decision rights and evidence, not simply more reviewers.
Turn review outcomes into development and revisit them
A talent review is useful only if it leads to an action that addresses a real role or capability need. CIPD notes that succession development may include relevant work experience, coaching, mentoring, training, secondments, and networking. Choose an experience that lets the employee build or demonstrate the capabilities under discussion, and agree how progress will be assessed.
- For each role in scope, identify the capability gaps that matter for future responsibilities.
- Agree on a tailored development action, such as a stretch assignment, coaching, mentoring, training, or a secondment.
- Set a check-in point and specify what evidence will indicate progress; avoid promising a promotion or appointment that is not decided.
- Revisit the plan when the role, strategy, employee circumstances, or available evidence changes.
CIPD’s talent-management factsheet describes development practices and the possibility of combining focused and inclusive approaches. Treat succession plans as working plans that need review, not fixed lists of guaranteed successors.
What the evidence does not establish
The cited guidance does not establish a universal nine-box standard, a quantified effectiveness rate for nine-box assessments, or a validated AI system that can predict an individual’s future leadership success. The grid and AI tools can support a more structured process, but their outputs remain dependent on the quality of criteria, evidence, opportunity, oversight, and human judgment.
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