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Analysts cited by Business Standard/Reuters say the reported US suspension of the Permanent Labor Certification (PERM) programme is unlikely to cause an immediate revenue hit for Indian IT services companies. They point to the firms’ limited reported share of PERM applications, while warning that uncertainty over retaining US-based workers and potential hiring costs could matter over time.
What the reported US action targets
The measure described by Business Standard/Reuters concerns the Permanent Labor Certification, or PERM, programme, a process connected to employment-based permanent residence in the United States. The report characterizes the action as part of a broader effort to constrain pathways from foreign-born status toward US residence and citizenship.
The report does not establish the legal authority, implementation date, duration, exceptions, or which applications are covered. Those details should not be inferred from the phrase “green-card suspension”: the available account identifies PERM as the target but does not provide the underlying US government notice.
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ICICI Securities reportedly estimated that Indian IT firms accounted for less than 2% of PERM applications filed from October 2024 through September 2025. That is the securities firm’s reported estimate, not an independently verified application-data count. Analysts cited in the report therefore see little immediate operational or revenue exposure for the sector.
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Nasscom, the industry body, reportedly said companies had reduced reliance on H-1B workers, expanded local hiring in the United States, and that relatively few H-1B workers move to permanent residence through PERM. These are Nasscom’s reported assertions; the article does not provide independent industry-wide measurements for them.
Where the longer-term risks could arise
Retaining workers already based in the United States
If PERM becomes unavailable or more uncertain, companies could have fewer options for moving some workers from temporary status toward permanent residence. ICICI Securities framed the concern as longer-term talent retention rather than an immediate revenue impact. The report does not establish that workers have departed or that retention has already deteriorated.
Higher costs from local hiring or subcontracting
Analysts identify possible cost pressure if firms need to rely more heavily on US-based hiring or subcontractors. The report presents this as a risk, not as a measured increase in expenses or a cost outcome already experienced by the companies.
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Business Standard/Reuters names Microsoft, Cognizant, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Wipro, HCL Technologies, and Capgemini among the companies targeted by the curbs. It does not provide comparable company-by-company PERM exposure figures, so the list should not be read as evidence that each firm has the same level of exposure.
TCS said it did not expect a change to its workforce strategy or client engagements, citing single-digit PERM applications over the preceding two years. This is the only company-specific PERM figure in the report.
What investors should make of the market reaction
The report quoted ICICI Securities describing the development as negative for Indian IT stocks in the near to medium term, mainly through sentiment and longer-term talent-retention concerns rather than immediate revenue effects. Bajaj Broking head of research Sumit Singhania said the regulatory development adds uncertainty for a sector already under pressure.
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These are analyst views, not evidence that the policy has changed company earnings. Business Standard/Reuters reported that the Indian IT index rose about 3.5% on October 9, 2026, led by TCS after its second-quarter results. The same report said Indian IT stocks had fallen 25% and the benchmark 14% during 2026 up to that date. These are dated market observations, not ongoing performance figures; the report also noted AI-led disruption and described India’s IT industry as worth $315 billion, without providing a separate methodology for that estimate.
Bottom line for Indian IT firms
The available reporting supports a cautious conclusion: analysts see limited near-term exposure because Indian IT firms reportedly account for a small share of PERM filings and have diversified hiring approaches. The more material concern is uncertainty over longer-term US talent retention and the possibility of higher staffing costs. How large those effects become depends on implementation details that the report does not establish.
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