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UK firms’ reported annual own-price growth and wage growth were unchanged in the three months to September 2026, but many still expect higher energy costs to squeeze profits and prompt price rises. The Bank of England’s latest Decision Maker Panel (DMP), published 2 October, puts realised own-price growth at 3.7% and wage growth at 4.0%; those are survey measures, not consumer inflation or a guarantee that every business has held prices steady.
What the latest figures say about prices and pay
The Bank of England’s weighted Decision Maker Panel survey, conducted 4–18 September 2026 and based on 1,993 responses, found little month-to-month movement in its headline measures. Its own-price figures cover firms across the economy, not only businesses selling directly to consumers.
| Measure | Three months to September 2026 | Change from the three months to August |
|---|---|---|
| Reported annual own-price growth | 3.7% | Unchanged |
| Expected own-price inflation over the next year | 3.7% | Down 0.1 percentage points |
| Reported annual wage growth | 4.0% | Unchanged |
| Expected wage growth over the next year | 3.4% | Unchanged |
The expected wage-growth figure is 0.6 percentage points below the reported annual rate. These are distinct survey measures: reported wage growth describes what firms say has happened, while the forward-looking figure is an expectation, not a forecast of an agreed pay settlement. The Bank’s September 2026 Decision Maker Panel data provides the figures and survey details.
How energy costs are affecting firms’ plans
In the DMP’s questions about the recent energy shock, 57% of firms expected to increase prices because of higher energy prices, two percentage points fewer than in August. Seven per cent expected to lower prices. These are expectations about a shock, not a count of businesses that had already changed prices.
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Seventy per cent expected higher energy prices to reduce profit margins, two percentage points more than in April. The Bank summarised the most common responses this way: “In September, higher prices and lower profit margins remained the most common forms of adjustment.” This describes reported adjustment plans and pressures; it does not mean every firm has raised prices or seen its margin fall.
Why margin reports can look different
The DMP’s 70% figure concerns firms’ expectations about the effect of higher energy prices. The Bank of England’s September Agents’ Summary, based on qualitative reports from its agents and business contacts, describes a broader picture: margins appeared slightly less compressed overall as some firms made efficiency savings and passed on part of their costs. The two findings are not directly contradictory because they describe different evidence and frames of reference.
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The Agents’ Summary says: “Higher energy prices continue to push input costs upwards, offset only partially by weak demand.” Contacts described passing on higher energy, fuel and commodity costs where possible, alongside efficiency measures, procurement savings, restraint in replacing staff and other cost controls. Some businesses may face a further cost increase when fixed-price contracts or hedges expire; the timing and effect vary by firm. The summary also gives a 3.6% double-weighted average for 2026 pay settlements. That is a separate settlement estimate, not the DMP’s reported or expected wage-growth measure. See the Bank of England Agents’ Summary for September 2026.
What the ONS figures add—and what they do not
The Office for National Statistics provides a separate snapshot from its Business Insights and Impact on the UK Economy survey (BICS), Wave 163, live from 17 to 30 August 2026. In late August, 59% of businesses expressed some degree of concern about energy prices. Among businesses with 10 or more employees, 38% said staffing costs—including wages, bonuses, National Insurance and pension contributions—had increased in the preceding three months; 16% said employees’ hourly wages increased in July.
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These numbers should not be combined with the DMP percentages or read as the same measure. BICS asks a different population and set of questions, and its hourly-wage result refers to a particular month while its staffing-cost figure covers a three-month period. The ONS says BICS is voluntary, its estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling uncertainty, and the statistics are in development. Its coverage excludes several sectors, including agriculture, oil and gas extraction, energy generation and supply, public administration and defence, public provision of education and health, and finance and insurance. Details appear in the ONS release published 3 September 2026.
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How to read “steady” in this update
- It means little change in specific survey measures. The DMP’s reported annual own-price growth and wage growth were unchanged from the preceding three-month period.
- It does not mean costs or bills are unchanged. Firms report continuing energy-related input pressure, and the energy-shock questions show expectations of price increases and margin reductions.
- It is not the same as consumer inflation. The DMP’s own-price measure tracks firms’ own prices across the economy; it is not the consumer price index.
- Expectations are not realised outcomes. Survey responses about future prices, wages and margins describe what firms anticipate, not what all of them eventually do.
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