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The National Retail Federation (NRF) says its Retail Monitor recorded U.S. retail sales growth for an 11th consecutive month in August 2026. On the monitor’s seasonally adjusted measure, total retail sales rose 0.22% from July and 3.87% from August 2025; core retail sales rose 0.17% month over month and 3.47% year over year. These are NRF monitor figures, not Census Bureau estimates.
What NRF counted as retail sales
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, uses actual, anonymized credit- and debit-card purchase data. NRF’s total retail measure excludes automobile dealers and gasoline stations. Its core measure excludes those categories and restaurants, narrowing the view to retail goods demand. NRF says the exclusions are intended to reduce volatility and provide a broad view of consumer spending.
The August figures are seasonally adjusted percentage changes, not dollar sales totals. NRF’s release, published September 25, 2026, reports these measures:
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| NRF measure | What it excludes | August change from July | August change from August 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total retail sales | Automobile dealers and gasoline stations | Up 0.22%, seasonally adjusted | Up 3.87%, seasonally adjusted |
| Core retail sales | Automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants | Up 0.17%, seasonally adjusted | Up 3.47%, seasonally adjusted |
Both measures showed growth, with the total measure increasing somewhat more than core. The figures describe reported changes in the Retail Monitor; they are not Census Bureau numbers or dollar totals. NRF’s August release provides the reported rates, while its Retail Monitor report page describes the series.
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Why the August figures cannot be read as a clean comparison with July’s release
NRF introduced a new methodology with the August 2026 release. Under the new approach, the card data are weighted to reflect the makeup of U.S. consumers and projected to match Census Bureau retail-sales totals. The year-over-year comparison is now seasonally adjusted, consistent with the month-over-month comparison.
NRF warns that the new-basis August changes are not directly comparable with figures it published under the earlier methodology, including July’s Retail Monitor figures. The reported 11-month streak is NRF’s characterization of the monitor’s series; the individual monthly percentage changes should not be treated as a fully comparable sequence across this methodological break.
How this differs from Census retail-sales statistics
The Retail Monitor and the Census Bureau’s monthly retail-sales estimate use different measurement approaches: NRF describes its figures as compiled from anonymized payment-card transactions, while Census estimates are survey-based. Their values should not be merged or treated as interchangeable. A sound numerical comparison would first account for differences in data collection, coverage, definitions, seasonal adjustment, and release basis. No Census Bureau August 2026 figure is cited here.
What the report does—and does not—say about August
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said, “Retail sales climbed steadily once again in August,” and attributed household spending patterns to low unemployment, wage gains, budget-conscious shoppers, and back-to-school promotions. Those are Shay’s explanations in NRF’s release, not independently established causes in the reported sales figures.
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The release does not provide sector-by-sector August results, so it does not establish which retail categories drove the increase. NRF said a fuller release with enhanced sector details and dollar levels was expected in October during the methodology transition. Readers should not infer category performance from the topline percentages alone.
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