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U.S. manufacturing remained in expansion in September 2026, but the ISM headline index edged down to 54.5 from 54.6 in August while its Prices index jumped 6.8 points to 77.9. The headline’s small dip was not a move into contraction; the standout change was a faster pace of reported price increases.
What did the September ISM manufacturing PMI show?
The Institute for Supply Management’s September Manufacturing PMI was 54.5, down 0.1 percentage point from August’s 54.6. Both readings were above 50, the diffusion-index line that separates expansion from contraction. ISM said manufacturing expanded for the ninth consecutive month, following a 10-month contraction period. The report was released October 1, 2026.
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ISM also notes that a Manufacturing PMI above 47.5 percent over time generally indicates expansion of the overall U.S. economy. That is a separate threshold convention; it does not replace the 50 mark used to distinguish expansion from contraction in the manufacturing diffusion index. See ISM’s September 2026 report and table.
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Why did activity ease while manufacturing still expanded?
The PMI is a composite, so a slight decline in the headline does not mean every part of manufacturing weakened. New orders and employment strengthened, while production cooled, inventories contracted, and supplier deliveries remained slower. Those opposing movements left the overall index nearly unchanged and still above 50.
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| September index | September reading | August reading | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.6 | Down 0.1 point; still expanding |
| New Orders | 55.3 | 53.7 | Up; expanding for a ninth month |
| Production | 56.7 | 58.3 | Down; still growing |
| Employment | 52.7 | 51.2 | Up; growing for a third month |
| Supplier Deliveries | 59.0 | 59.3 | Still indicates slower deliveries, but the rate of slowing eased |
| Inventories | 48.6 | 50.6 | Down into contraction |
| Customers’ Inventories | 41.6 | not stated (ISM September report) | ISM labels the level “Too Low” |
| Backlog of Orders | 56.4 | 51.8 | Up; growing |
| New Export Orders | 50.9 | 53.2 | Down; still growing |
| Imports | 51.0 | 52.5 | Down; still growing |
| Prices | 77.9 | 71.1 | Up 6.8 points; prices increasing at a faster rate |
These are diffusion-index readings, not percentage changes in output, employment, or prices. In particular, 77.9 does not mean prices rose 77.9 percent. ISM seasonally adjusts New Orders, Production, Employment, and Inventories; the report does not describe every index in the table as seasonally adjusted.
How much did the ISM Prices index rise?
The Prices index rose 6.8 percentage points, from 71.1 in August to 77.9 in September. ISM described this as prices increasing at a faster rate. It is the clearest deterioration among the headline report’s signals, but it measures the breadth and direction of respondents’ reports—not the size of a market-wide price increase.
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Survey respondents reported increases in aluminum, brass products, copper, corrugated products, diesel fuel, electrical and electronic components, freight, fuel, memory components, nickel, oil-based products, packaging materials, plastic-based products, printed circuit boards, resins, semiconductors, soybean meal, steel, and zinc. ISM listed no commodities as down in price. Those commodity mentions reflect respondent reports, not a comprehensive price census.
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What do orders, inventories, and deliveries add to the picture?
Demand and production moved in different directions
New Orders increased to 55.3, marking a ninth month of expansion, while Production eased to 56.7 from 58.3 and remained in growth territory. The gap means incoming orders strengthened even as the reported pace of production growth slowed; the survey does not establish what caused that difference or how it will develop.
Backlogs rose as customer inventories remained low
Backlog of Orders climbed to 56.4 from 51.8, indicating growth in reported backlogs. Customers’ Inventories registered 41.6, which ISM classifies as “Too Low.” These can coexist with expansion, but neither reading by itself proves what manufacturers or customers will do next.
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Deliveries were still slowing, while factory inventories contracted
Supplier Deliveries at 59.0 indicates slower deliveries because readings above 50 in this index mean delivery speed is slowing. However, the rate of slowing was less pronounced than in August, when the index was 59.3. Factory Inventories fell to 48.6 from 50.6, moving into contraction.
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New Export Orders slipped to 50.9 from 53.2, and Imports fell to 51.0 from 52.5. Both remained just above 50, so they were still expanding, but at a slower pace than in August.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Which industries expanded?
Five of the six largest manufacturing industries expanded in September, according to ISM: Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Chemical Products. This industry count provides breadth context, but the overall PMI and component indexes remain survey measures rather than a census of every U.S. factory.
How to interpret the report’s limits
ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, chaired for this release by Susan Spence, MBA, bases the report on a panel stratified by NAICS industries and their contributions to GDP. ISM says surveys are sent early in the month, responses arrive through most of the month, and most respondents generally wait until late in the month to submit. The report describes respondent assessments for September; it is not a causal breakdown or a guarantee of future output, inflation, or policy decisions. ISM’s overview of its PMI reports explains the survey timing.
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