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Climate scientists are urging international institutions, governments, researchers and funders to prepare for El Niño-related health risks through five linked actions: coordinate health protection, assess national risks, strengthen attribution research, monitor impacts continuously and evaluate which safeguards work. The call comes as forecasts point to elevated odds of a very strong event late in 2026—not a certainty, and not a guarantee of identical effects everywhere.
The recommendations appear in a call to action titled “Enhancing preparedness for the impending super El Niño,” by Ruby Lieber, Dann Mitchell and Anthony Haines, reported by the University of Bristol on 7 October 2026. “Super El Niño” is the release’s characterization; the forecast language is more specific and probabilistic. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigns a 75% chance that October–December 2026 will reach its “historic” category, defined as a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.5°C or more. NOAA says impacts consistent with El Niño become more likely at this magnitude, but are not guaranteed. The probability is a forecast statistic, not a health-risk estimate. NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast highlights
The World Meteorological Organization’s August 2026 update also anticipated further strengthening and very strong intensity later in the year. Neither forecast establishes the exact effects a particular place will experience. WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026
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What the five recommendations ask decision-makers to do
1. Coordinate international health action
When El Niño is officially declared, the UN and other international bodies should address urgent health protection and disease prevention. The University of Bristol release identifies WHO, the wider UN system, the World Bank and NGOs as potential partners. Coordination matters because climate-related health threats can cross borders and require public-health, humanitarian and development responses to work together.
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2. Help governments assess risks and prepare
Governments should assess how El Niño may affect population health in their own settings and take precautions, including developing or improving early-warning systems. The aim is to turn broad climate signals into locally useful warnings and preparation rather than assume one global forecast translates into the same exposure everywhere.
3. Expand climate-health attribution studies
Researchers should produce more studies focused on the health effects of El Niño, and decision-makers should use those findings to shape policy and practice. Attribution work helps distinguish impacts associated with El Niño from those associated with human-driven climate change. That distinction can guide more targeted responses, but the release says the available evidence does not yet establish how much health burden is attributable to each.
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4. Monitor health effects over time
Health impacts should be reviewed continuously, not only during a forecast or after a disaster. Ongoing monitoring can build a fuller picture of evolving effects and show where evidence is still missing. This is particularly important because the release says additional threats associated with El Niño remain largely unquantified.
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5. Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of measures
Authorities and funders should assess whether climate-health measures deliver value and reduce harm. The release gives examples spanning several systems: early-warning systems, stronger health-system capacity, urban flood protection and food-system resilience actions. Evaluation can help compare what works in a particular place and inform where scarce resources should go.
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Why the authors emphasize measurement as well as preparedness
The release identifies infectious disease, malnutrition and heat-related conditions such as dehydration and heatstroke as possible consequences of El Niño. These are potential risks, not a claim that each will occur in every affected area or with equal likelihood. Local exposure, vulnerability and preparedness matter, and the available evidence does not support assigning a single health-burden figure to El Niño.
Lieber, a Senior Research Associate in Climate Science at the University of Bristol, said: “We know the number of people affected by climate-related disasters is strongly influenced by the El Niño cycle, but there is little evidence available establishing how much of the health burden can be attributed to climate change and how much was driven by El Niño.”
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She also called for more precise, place-specific understanding: “Since the current El Niño pushes many regions into more extreme climates, there’s a pressing and unprecedented need to better understand, measure and pinpoint the different dangers for individual countries and places.”
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →The proposed steps are therefore complementary. Forecasts can help trigger preparation, while local assessment, monitoring and attribution help clarify who is exposed and what responses are justified. Evaluating interventions then offers a way to improve those responses rather than assuming a measure is effective simply because it was deployed.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What readers should—and should not—infer from the forecast
- It is a forecast, not an observed outcome. NOAA’s 75% figure applies to the October–December 2026 period and its stated RONI threshold.
- It is not a health-risk percentage. It does not mean there is a 75% chance of a specific disease, heat emergency or other health outcome.
- It does not specify a uniform global impact map. The forecasts indicate increased odds of a very strong event, not identical local effects or certainty about particular consequences.
- Health attribution remains incomplete. The Bristol release says the burden linked specifically to El Niño and the division between El Niño and human-driven climate change are not yet well established.
Dann Mitchell, Shanta Professorial Chair in Planetary Health at the University of Bristol, described the risks as “potentially devastating but predictable,” arguing that they cannot be ignored. The practical implication of the five-step call is to use climate outlooks as a reason to prepare while building the local evidence needed to tailor and assess that preparation.
Quick Recap
University of Bristol announcement, 7 October 2026
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